基于灰色预测模型的水资源可持续利用研究——以常州武进区为例

基于常州武进区2008年-2013年用水量,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并利用该模型预测了武进区2015年-2020年的用水量.根据武进区供水能力的现状,并结合预测结果,对武进区2015年-2020年日用水量进行供需平衡分析,以发现水资源供需缺口,然后提出解决对策,缓解供需矛盾.结果表明2017年武进区开始出现供水不足现象,缺口为6.8万m3/d.为实现水资源可持续利用,提出新增滆湖供水水量,落实工业、农业和社会生活的节水措施,提高污水资源化率的三项策略.     

高校能源消耗建模研究与应用

针对高校能源消耗建模研究与应用问题,文中介绍了高校能耗日益增长现状,给出了高校能耗模型构建,为节约能源必须做好精准能耗预测.建立了灰色径向基函数神经网络高校能耗预测模型,并采用基于排序等分法赌盘规则选择算子的遗传算法对该模型进行全局优化,进一步用实例对比分析评估了模型的有效性.实践表明,优化后的模型能有效预测能耗,与传统单一的建模方式相比,有更好的拟合性、稳定性、预测精度和更快的收敛速度,为节能评估和设计提供了决策依据.     

ABR-MBR一体化工艺节能降耗措施优化研究

能耗高和膜污染是限制膜生物反应器(MBR)广泛应用的重要因素.为降低工艺运行能耗和延缓膜污染,以厌氧折流板反应器(ABR)-MBR工艺处理生活污水为例,对工艺结构和脱氮除磷运行条件进行优化.结果表明,通过优化ABR-MBR工艺结构,可降低43%的运行能耗,同时可保持较高的COD、NH+4-N、TN和TP去除效果,平均去除率分别为91%、85%、76%和86%.另外,添加颗粒填料可有效延缓膜污染,不过也改变了膜污染的形成过程,膜内部污染物含量显著增多,碳水化合物含量增加,而蛋白质含量减少,碳水化合物/蛋白质比明显增大.最终,增强了MBR反应器的实际应用性能.     

Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Impact Study on Human Activity to the Resource-environment Based on the Consumption Level Difference of China's Provinces or Autonomous Regions

The study on population and the resource-environment by the consumption may contribute to the further cognition about their correlations and provide the policy references for natural resources use and environmental protection. This article has studied the impact status of the consumption level difference of China's 31 provinces or autonomous regions on the resource-environment in 2005 by per capita consumption expenditure and serial statistical data with unit person method and constructed consumption model and hierarchical cluster analysis. We found several trends. To the intensity that population acting on the resource-environment, four sorts of regions might be divided in 2005, furthermore, most of them were at the level of unit person. Provinces or autonomous regions, located in the developed coastal areas in China, generally have the bigger impact intensity on the resource-environment than the others. That is to say, the natural resources mainly flow from west to east and from north to south, but the environmental loads are shared in the whole China and are likely to be aggravated from east to west reversely. The main causes of imbalance of pressure on the resource-environment should be the difference of consumption level, the unmatchable resource exploitation and utilization, the imbalance of discharging pollutants, and the difference of moderate carrying capacity. To the total impact quantities that population acting on the resource-environment, four sorts of regions were divided in 2005 and the difference of them was notable. Provinces or autonomous regions, having the bigger impact quantities on the resource-environment, are generally located in the eastern and central China while the extended western China is still the weak impact area of the resource-environment consumption or terminal pressure. Provinces or autonomous regions are few, where the total impact quantities are more or less; alternately, those are many, where the total impact quantities rank the middle.     

Energy-Saving Effect Calculation and Implementation Strategy Study on the Industrial Structure Adjustment in Western China

The western region is an important strategic base of energy in China. The average per capita possession of fossil energy in the west is twice that in China. On the basis of the analysis of the mechanism how industrial structure adjustment affects energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), the energy input-output table of western China was designed and compiled. Combining multiobjective planning techniques, setting energy-saving, economic growth, and laborer's income growth as the goals, setting basic input-output relations, production capacity, and labor as the constraints, the multiobjective optimization model of western energy input-output was constructed. The results of industrial structure optimization of western China show that: with technology and product price remaining unchanged, the adjustment of the industrial structure can reduce energy consumption per unit GDP by 2.7%, at the same time ensuring the average annual increase of GDP and laborer's income of western region in excess of 8%. It indicates that industrial structure adjustment is an effective method in accomplishing the aim of energy saving. Finally, policy suggestions from four angles, such as industrial chain and financial policies, were put forward.     

关于建立我国资源节约型经济体系的认识

从可持续发展角度看,我国资源节约型经济体系机制应在坚持集约经济和适应消费的基础上,强调社会生产与消费两者间的平衡和协调发展,欲达此目的,加快市场经济体系的完善和国家宏观指导是保障这一体系机制正常运转的根本条件。     

The discursive framework of sustainability in UK food policy: the marginalised environmental dimension

ABSTRACT

In the context of food policy, sustainability functions as a normative principle but also constitutes a highly contested arena. The study presented in this paper establishes how discursive dynamics amongst professionals involved in matters of food distribution, retail, consumption and waste lead to food policy themes being framed as issues of sustainability. Analysing varied UK-based data (trade magazine articles, policy documents and interviews with retail, non-profit and consultancy representatives), three interpretative frames of sustainability are identified: consumer sovereignty, economic rationality and stewardship. Focusing on three themes of food sustainability – organic consumption, protein diversity and waste reduction – it is shown how these interpretative frames constitute the discursive framework relevant to food policy. Based on these findings, it is shown how in the analysed debates environmental concerns are sidelined.     

IMPACT OF THERMAL STANDARDS ON POWER PLANT WATER CONSUMPTION1

Power plant water consumption (evaporative water loss) for various river temperature standards is presented for existing and proposed power plants located along the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers in the MAPP geographical area. Thermodynamic and economic models are combined to evaluate the cooling related water consumption at various river thermal standards. The existing thermal standards and a number of other hypothetical thermal regulations including the extreme cases of no thermal standards and no allowable heated discharges are examined to show the dependence on thermal standards of power production related water consumption. A critical appraisal of the cost of thermal standards in terms of water consumption is thereby possible so that subjective assessments of the standards can proceed with full knowledge of the tradeoffs involved between the “water costs” of power production and environmental enhancement.     

DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR PREDICTING RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSUMPTION1

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of future urban water demand traditionally have been made by the projection of historic trends in per capita consumption and population. This paper outlines the use of two deterministic models to forecast the residential component of urban water demand. The models incorporate specific representation of the activities which result in water consumption at each residence. Predictions of water use can then be made by modeling the changes expected in the number of these activities and the consumption for each such activity.