基于PLS-VIP方法的我国居民间接碳排放研究

使用STIRPAT模型、PLS-VIP方法研究间接生活能源消费等因素对我国城乡居民间接碳排放的影响。结果显示:城乡居民间接生活能源消费弹性系数都位居第一位,富有弹性;人口规模、人均GDP的弹性系数为负值,我国人口的扩大以及经济的发展会降低间接CO_2排放量;城乡居民城镇化的弹性系数都为负值,新型城镇化建设能够降低间接碳排放量;农村第三产业比重的弹性系数为负值。最后,提出提高城乡居民间接生活能源使用效率、大力发展农村第三产业等建议。     

The role of learning in sustainable communities of practice

This paper adds to the literature on skills for sustainable communities by examining the role and processes of learning in “communities of practice” that exist within a “grassroots association”. Interviews were conducted with participants in the communities of practice of a student group called Green Action, which engages with environmental issues in practical ways. The findings demonstrate how learning occurred in the communities of practice, how participants gained skills and knowledge for sustainable consumption, and how learning in the communities of practice appeared to help Green Action to sustain itself in the long-term. This paper could serve as a useful demonstration to others as to how to apply the theories and concepts from the literature on communities of practice when researching skills and knowledge for sustainable communities. It also has some value for grassroots associations themselves in understanding their own activities.     

我国能源消耗对人群PM2.5暴露水平的随机影响效应分析

能源燃烧产物是PM2.5暴露水平提高的重要因素,燃烧不同种类的能源对PM2.5形成的影响机理不同,但各类能源消耗量对人群PM2.5暴露水平的影响程度尚不明确.基于2003-2010年的PM2.5质量浓度与煤炭、焦炭、原油、汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、天然气和电力消耗数据组成的面板数据,建立了不同种类能源消耗影响我国人群PM25暴露水平的随机效应模型.结果表明,我国2003-2010年多数省(市、自治区)的年均PM2.5质量浓度超过了世界卫生组织的标准.在研究时间段内,不同种类能源消耗量对人群PM2.5暴露水平的影响具有较大差异,煤炭、焦炭、汽油和煤油消耗对人群PM2.5暴露水平具有正影响,其中,正向影响最大的为焦炭消耗量,表明工业消耗焦炭对形成PM2.5的促进作用比较明显;与焦炭消耗量具有相近的影响效果的因素是汽油消耗,表明改进机动车和航空燃油技术同样非常重要;原油、柴油、燃料油、天然气和电力消耗对人群PM2.5暴露水平具有负影响,其中负向影响最大的为电力消耗量,表明电力作为一种清洁能源,有利于降低人群PM2.5暴露水平.     

石油类物质的湿沉降及其对区域水环境的影响:以正构烷烃为指示物

为评估含有机污染物的湿沉降对区域水环境污染的贡献,在广州市3个采样点(海珠区、天河区和萝岗区)采集了2010年湿沉降样品(157个),并在天河点采集了12个干沉降、11个地表径流及10个气溶胶样品,并对其中指示化合物正构烷烃的浓度、来源和通量进行分析.正构烷烃(包括从C20—C34的15种同系物)总浓度范围为0.6—292μg·L-1;从季节上看,其在雨季(4—9月)的浓度低于旱季(1—3月和10—12月).碳优势指数和主成分分析结果表明,广州市的正构烷烃主要来源于石油产品的消费(50%),暗示石油产品消耗是主要污染源;其次来自植物排放(38%).此外,广州市在2010年有55±80 t(平均值±标准偏差)正构烷烃经干沉降和湿沉降至地表,其中湿沉降的贡献为39±80 t.同时,大约有224±296 t正构烷烃通过地表径流进入到珠江,反映了面源污染对区域水环境影响很大.因此,控制石油产品的消费和治理地表径流,是抑制面源污染、改善区域水环境的两个途径.     

基于灰色预测模型的水资源可持续利用研究——以常州武进区为例

基于常州武进区2008年-2013年用水量,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并利用该模型预测了武进区2015年-2020年的用水量.根据武进区供水能力的现状,并结合预测结果,对武进区2015年-2020年日用水量进行供需平衡分析,以发现水资源供需缺口,然后提出解决对策,缓解供需矛盾.结果表明2017年武进区开始出现供水不足现象,缺口为6.8万m3/d.为实现水资源可持续利用,提出新增滆湖供水水量,落实工业、农业和社会生活的节水措施,提高污水资源化率的三项策略.     

高校能源消耗建模研究与应用

针对高校能源消耗建模研究与应用问题,文中介绍了高校能耗日益增长现状,给出了高校能耗模型构建,为节约能源必须做好精准能耗预测.建立了灰色径向基函数神经网络高校能耗预测模型,并采用基于排序等分法赌盘规则选择算子的遗传算法对该模型进行全局优化,进一步用实例对比分析评估了模型的有效性.实践表明,优化后的模型能有效预测能耗,与传统单一的建模方式相比,有更好的拟合性、稳定性、预测精度和更快的收敛速度,为节能评估和设计提供了决策依据.     

关于建立我国资源节约型经济体系的认识

从可持续发展角度看,我国资源节约型经济体系机制应在坚持集约经济和适应消费的基础上,强调社会生产与消费两者间的平衡和协调发展,欲达此目的,加快市场经济体系的完善和国家宏观指导是保障这一体系机制正常运转的根本条件。     

The discursive framework of sustainability in UK food policy: the marginalised environmental dimension

ABSTRACT

In the context of food policy, sustainability functions as a normative principle but also constitutes a highly contested arena. The study presented in this paper establishes how discursive dynamics amongst professionals involved in matters of food distribution, retail, consumption and waste lead to food policy themes being framed as issues of sustainability. Analysing varied UK-based data (trade magazine articles, policy documents and interviews with retail, non-profit and consultancy representatives), three interpretative frames of sustainability are identified: consumer sovereignty, economic rationality and stewardship. Focusing on three themes of food sustainability – organic consumption, protein diversity and waste reduction – it is shown how these interpretative frames constitute the discursive framework relevant to food policy. Based on these findings, it is shown how in the analysed debates environmental concerns are sidelined.     

IMPACT OF THERMAL STANDARDS ON POWER PLANT WATER CONSUMPTION1

Power plant water consumption (evaporative water loss) for various river temperature standards is presented for existing and proposed power plants located along the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers in the MAPP geographical area. Thermodynamic and economic models are combined to evaluate the cooling related water consumption at various river thermal standards. The existing thermal standards and a number of other hypothetical thermal regulations including the extreme cases of no thermal standards and no allowable heated discharges are examined to show the dependence on thermal standards of power production related water consumption. A critical appraisal of the cost of thermal standards in terms of water consumption is thereby possible so that subjective assessments of the standards can proceed with full knowledge of the tradeoffs involved between the “water costs” of power production and environmental enhancement.     

DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR PREDICTING RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSUMPTION1

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of future urban water demand traditionally have been made by the projection of historic trends in per capita consumption and population. This paper outlines the use of two deterministic models to forecast the residential component of urban water demand. The models incorporate specific representation of the activities which result in water consumption at each residence. Predictions of water use can then be made by modeling the changes expected in the number of these activities and the consumption for each such activity.