Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

纳米TiO2的性能与应用研究

纳米二氧化钛(Nano-TiO2)因其具有粒径小、透明、紫外线吸收性能强以及优异的随角异色、光电催化和抗菌等优点而成为国内外科技工作者的研究热点。简要介绍了纳米TiO2的优异性能,详细论述了纳米TiO2在光催化处理污染物、抗菌剂、食品包装、药物添加剂、高级涂料、太阳能电池及防晒剂等方面的应用现状和研究进展,并对纳米TiO2的发展方向和应用前景进行了展望。     

我国消防标准体系分析

为明确我国消防标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从消防标准的数量、标龄、类型、属性和采标情况等5个方面对我国消防标准体系进行分析,并与国际标准化组织、欧盟标准化委员会和美国的消防标准体系进行了比较。研究结果表明:我国消防标准体系整体适用性在不断增强;需制定周期性标准复审计划;消防基础试验类和管理类标准应成为下一步消防标准制修订的重点;消防强制性标准所占比例有待进一步下调;需建立国际标准动态跟踪机制,同时应注重将我国先进的消防标准转化为国际标准。     

污水处理过程水温变化模型构建与验证

污水处理是一个复杂的生物、物理及化学反应过程.污水水温直接影响到污染物生物处理效果,并对污水处理运行能耗产生重要影响.另一方面,污水中也蕴含着相当热能,是潜在可以回收的低品位能源,加以利用则有望实现污水处理碳中和运行.然而,现有研究很少涉及污水处理厂污水进、出水水温变化及其影响因素;工程中也只强调冬季保温,并无法从微观角度认识处理过程水温变化规律.为此,研究尝试构建污水处理过程水温变化热量衡算模型,涵盖污水生化反应、机械传热、环境热传递和水蒸发热损失等4个主要涉热过程.与此同时,收集北京某污水处理厂实际水温、气温数据,借助热量平衡图来模拟污水处理过程中水温变化,并对理论模型参数进行校验和修正.通过参数敏感性分析,可以评价不同参数对水温热量的影响程度.基于这些工作,一个污水温度变化模型被构建成功,可用于指导实际污水处理厂水温控制或余温热能回收过程,可助力污水处理厂节能降耗、甚至实现碳中和目标.     

基于多态模糊BN的石化动设备故障概率定量风险评估

石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性.基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点...     

THE REGULATED RIPARIAN VERSION OF THE ASCE MODEL WATER CODE: THE THIRD WAY TO ALLOCATE WATER1

ABSTRACT: Lawyers, engineers, and hydrologists are accustomed to thinking of water law as falling into one of two incompatible models: riparian rights (under which water is allocated by courts according to the relative reasonableness of the competing uses) and appropriative rights (under which water is allocated according to the temporal priority of the competing uses, largely by the action of the water users themselves but perfected by the issuance of an administrative permit). Usually unnoticed is the existence of a third approach, which I have dubbed “regulated riparianism.” Under regulated riparianism, water is allocated by water permits issued after an administrative determination of the reasonableness of the proposed use before the use is commenced. This system, now in place in about half of the states east of Kansas City (plus Hawaii), thus is fundamentally different from either the traditional ripanan rights that it replaces or the appropriative rights found in western states.     

Agriculture,ethics, and restrictions on property rights

The argument in this essay is twofold. (1) Procedural justice requires,in particular cases, that we restrict property rights in natural resources, e.g., California agricultural land or Appalachian coal land. (2) Conditions imposed by Locke's political theory and by dense population require,in general, that we restrict property rights in finite or non-renewable natural resources such as land. If these arguments are correct, then we have a moral imperative to use land-use controls (such as taxation, planning, zoning, and acreage limitations) to restructure land ownership and land use in a far more radical way than has ever been accomplished in the past.     

Poly(ethylene oxide)-coated granular starch-poly(hydroxybutyrate-co-hydroxyvalerate) composite materials

Granular cornstarch was coated with several biodegradable polymers in an effort to improve the mechanical properties of starch-poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) composites. Only samples containing poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO)-coated granular starch showed a large improvement in tensile properties over uncoated starch. For example, a 50/50 blend of PEO-coated starch and PHBV had a tensile strength of 19 MPa and an ultimate elongation of 23%, compared to 10 MPa and 11% for a similar blend containing uncoated starch. PEO may act as an adhesive between the starch and the PHBV and/or increase the toughness and resistance to crack growth of PHBV around the starch granules.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Third National Meeting, June 6–8, 1994, Boston, Massachusetts.Names are necessary to report factually on available data; however, the USDA neither guarantees nor warrants the standard of the product and the use of the name by the USDA implies no approval of the product to the exclusion of others that may also be suitable.     

酸沉降物对土壤化学性质的影响

本文综述了酸沉降物对土壤酸化、营养物质的淋溶、重金属的活化、矿物分解等化学性质的影响，以及阻止酸雨危害土壤的化学方法。