地理标志农产品种植户气象灾害的适应策略研究——以陕西猕猴桃种植户为例

基于地理标志农产品种植户的实地调研数据,利用多元线性回归模型从生计维度研究种植户对猕猴桃物候期内气象灾害的感知及适应策略的影响因素。物候期内气象灾害的感知对种植户适应能力有显著影响。不同类别生计资本对于种植户采取适应策略的影响具有差异性：自然资本通过提升家庭生计基础显著影响种植户采取越冬期冻害、芽膨大期冻害适应策略;物质资本通过改善家庭生产物资形式影响种植户采取越冬期冻害适应策略;金融资本通过拓宽家庭金融收入渠道等方式显著影响种植户采取越冬期冻害、芽膨大期冻害、高温日灼灾害适应策略;社会资本通过丰富家庭同质性和异质性社会资本显著影响种植户采取夏季干旱适应策略;人力资本则通过提升家庭整体教育质量并推动再生产能力显著影响种植户采取芽膨大期冻害与秋季连阴雨适应策略。最后,建议政府应通过提升种植户获取气象信息能力、加强举办农业培训等技能学习活动、完善农业组织建设等措施以提升其适应能力。     

近45 a来我国农业气象灾害变化特征及其对粮食产量的影响

利用农业部种植业管理司发布的数据,针对近45 a(1970~2014年)来我国农业气象灾害变化特征及其对粮食产量影响的问题,采用数理统计和偏相关分析方法进行了研究。结果表明:黑龙江、山东和河南是受灾和成灾面积最大的省份;山西和内蒙古是受灾率和成灾率最高的两个省份;旱灾是我国主要的气象灾害,洪涝灾害波动明显,沿海地区台风灾害持续上升;东北地区旱灾比重增加,低温灾害有所减轻;华东地区洪涝、低温和台风灾害比重增加;华北地区低温和风雹呈现上升趋势;华南地区台风灾害增长显著;西北地区风雹和低温增加;西南地区旱灾和洪涝走势相反;中南地区旱灾减轻,洪涝加重;气象灾害直接影响到粮食总产量,干旱和洪涝灾害影响尤为明显;气象灾害与粮食产量的关系呈现出先上升后下降趋势。     

长江靖江段沿岸似鳊生长及种群参数估算

2012年1月~2013年12月连续24个月在长江靖江段沿岸收集似鳊标本2 334尾,采用基于体长频率数据的ELEFAN I技术估算长江近口段沿岸似鳊的生长参数与种群参数。结果表明:似鳊体长(L,cm)与体质量(W,g)幂函数关系为:W=0.0182×L~(2.948)(r=0.9823,n=2334)。Von Bertalanffy生长方程描述的似鳊生长参数为:极限体长(L_∞)=19.25 cm,生长系数(K)=0.2/a,理论生长起点年龄(t_0)为-1.59 a,体质量的生长拐点年龄为3.55 a。采用Pauly的经验公式估算似鳊自然死亡系数(M)为0.556/a。由长度变换渔获曲线法估算出的似鳊总死亡系数(Z)为1.638/a,捕捞死亡系数(F)和开发率(E)分别为1.082/a和0.66/a。2012~2013年长江靖江段沿岸似鳊年均资源重量和资源数量分别为120.59 t和947.4万尾。经相关估算参数和相对单位补充渔获量分析得出,当前长江靖江段沿岸似鳊已处于过度捕捞状态。建议将沿岸水域禁渔期延长至9月(即4~9月),以实现似鳊资源的恢复和可持续发展。     

青海草原火灾环境因素分析

应用1995-2004年10 a青海草原火灾调查资料和火灾区14个具有代表性气象台站的气象资料,分析研究了草原火灾区的气候特征、牧草结构、放牧状况,及火灾时空分布、危害和与气象要素间的关系,为预防和监测草原火灾,加强草原防火管理工作提供参考依据。分析结果表明:青海草原火灾有两个高发区,分别位于青海湖的南、北部,高发区火灾次数占火灾总次数的70%。冬春季平均气温年际增温明显时,对应的年火灾次数大幅度上升,冬春季平均气温年际变化每升高1℃,年火灾次数增加1.6次。冬春季降水偏少且分布不均、气温偏高是火灾增加的主要因素。草原秋冬转换期的11月和冬春季转换期的3月是草原火灾多发期,这2个月的火灾次数占总数的54%。草原火灾发生前,气象要素中日变化明显的有降水、风、地温、相对湿度、蒸发量等,过火面积、损失程度因这些气象条件的不同而有所差异。持续性的“暖干”天气,使草原处于极干燥、易燃的状态,它在火灾个例中占65%,草原上一旦出现火源,风助火威,就能迅速燃烧,风速与过火面积成正比。     

Effect of cadmium on growth, ultramorphology of leaf and secondary metabolites of Phyllanthus amarus Schum. and Thonn

The pollution is increasing in the environment by different kinds of human activities, which results in the accumulation of heavy metals including cadmium in the soil and water and it causes different types of problems to living beings. As the plants are utilized by human being as food and medicine, therefore, it is mandatory to see the effect of metals on plants. In this context, efforts have been made to observe the effect of different concentration of Cadmium (Cd) on Phyllanthus amarus Schum. and Thonn., because Cd is the widespread metal and the plants response to low and high level of exposure is a complex phenomenon. P. amarus is mostly grown as weed in agricultural and waste lands. It is a reputed plant used in Indian indigenous systems of medicine with hepatoprotective, diuretic, stomachic properties and is recently being used for the treatment of hepatitis B. The study revealed that Cd causes significant decrease in fresh and dry weight, length of root and shoot, protein, chlorophyll, carotenoids and sugar and increase in starch content. It is interesting to note that the therapeutically active compounds—phyllanthin and hypophyllanthin, enhanced at certain levels of Cd due to abiotic stress. Besides, the ultramorpholical changes were also observed in stomatal opening and wax deposition on both the surfaces of leaves.     

基于综合灾害风险防范模式的台风灾害防御效益评价研究初探

以综合灾害风险防范模式作为理论基础,从中国气象防灾减灾工作机制的特点出发,结合当前的社会学和经济学研究方法,构建包含气象服务水平评价、灾害防御行为评价的防灾减灾综合效益评价指标体系,涵盖从前期预报预警,到后期灾害应对的3个一级指标,8个二级指标和17个三级指标;并基于社会学调查的技术方法,实时跟踪2017-2018年登...     

杭州城区PM2.5和PM10污染特征及其影响因子分析

利用2013年12月—2014年11月杭州城区空气质量监测站PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度值结合气象、道路、人口数据以及站点周边绿地信息分析PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度时空特征及其影响因子。结果表明,杭州城区各监测站PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)晴天日浓度变化趋势基本一致,PM_(2.5)比PM_(10)污染严重;晴天日PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度值与对应的温度(-0.463,-0.281)、风速(-0.305,-0.332)呈负相关,与湿度(0.257,0.239)呈正相关;晴天有风时,杭州市区PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)污染北部重于南部,东部重于西部,浓度极高值集中在风速小于5 m/s时段,且风速越小浓度值越高;温度为12℃左右,湿度在60%~80%时,颗粒物污染最严重;交通高峰时各监测站PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)污染程度存在明显差异。相关性分析表明,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)污染程度与道路密度成正比,与缓冲区内绿地覆盖面积成反比。PM_(2.5)污染程度与人口密度成正比,PM_(10)污染与人口密度成反比。     

考虑岩土体剪胀特性的边坡稳定性分析*

为考虑岩土体剪胀特性对边坡稳定性的影响,基于非关联流动法则,利用等效内摩擦角的概念对原抗剪强度参数进行修正,以修正后的等效参数c*,φ*探讨剪胀角对岩土体强度的影响,结合传统强度折减法以及基于临界曲线的双系数折减法,求解基于修正后等效参数计算的边坡安全系数,并给出安全系数的取值方法。结果表明:采用等效参数来考虑剪胀角的影响是可行的;随剪胀角的增大安全系数增大,且增长速度变缓,剪胀角在0~25°范围内对安全系数的影响显著,在实际工程计算中需要考虑剪胀角对边坡稳定性的影响;基于临界曲线的双系数折减法可较为直观地体现出剪胀角的影响程度,在研究剪胀角对边坡稳定性的影响时可采用此方法进行分析。     

Severity of passenger injuries on public buses: A comparative analysis of collision injuries and non-collision injuries

Introduction: Although public buses have been demonstrated as a relatively safe mode of transport, the number of injuries to public bus passengers is far from negligible. Existing studies of public bus safety have focused primarily on injuries caused by collisions. Surprisingly, limited effort has been devoted to identifying factors that increase the severity of passenger injuries in non-collision incidents. Method: Our study therefore investigated the injury risk of public bus passengers involved in collision incidents and non-collision incidents comparatively, based on a police-reported dataset of 17,383 passengers injured on franchised public buses over a 10-year period in Hong Kong. A random parameters logistic model was established to estimate the likelihood of fatal and severe injuries to passengers as a function of various factors. Results: Our results indicated substantial inconsistences in the effects of risk factors between models of non-collision injuries and collision injuries. The severity of passenger injuries tended to increase significantly when non-collision incidents occurred due to excessive speed of bus drivers, on double-decker buses, in less urbanized areas, in winter, in heavy rains, during daytime, and at night without street lighting. Elderly female passengers were also found more likely to be fatally or severely injured in non-collision incidents if they lost their balance while boarding, alighting from, or standing on a bus. In comparison, the following factors were associated with a greater likelihood of fatal or severe injuries in collision incidents: elderly female passengers, standing passengers who lost balance, buses out of driver control, double-decker buses, collisions with vehicles or objects, and less urbanized areas. Practical Applications: Based on our comparative analysis, more targeted countermeasures, namely “4E” (engineering, enforcement, emergency, and education) and “3A” (awareness, appreciation, and assistance), were recommended to mitigate collision injuries and non-collision injuries to public bus passengers, respectively.     

新冠肺炎疫情期间气象条件和排放变化对PM2.5的影响

本文基于WRF-CMAQ定量分析了2020年1~3月全国337城市气象条件和排放变化对PM_2.5浓度的影响.全国气象条件整体转好1.7%,1月转差1.6%,2~3月分别偏有利1.3%和7.9%;全国污染物排放下降使得PM_2.5浓度同比下降14.1%,1~3月分别下降4.0%、25.7%和15.0%.武汉第一季度实测PM_2.5浓度同比降幅高于全国水平,与其气象条件大幅转好且污染排放降幅较大有关.北京在疫情发生前和严控期PM_2.5浓度同比升高,主要为气象转差所致;复工复产期同比下降,主要为污染排放大幅下降所致."2+26"城市、汾渭平原和长三角在第一季度PM_2.5浓度同比均下降,长三角降幅最大,与其污染排放大幅下降有关;"2+26"城市和汾渭平原在疫情发生前气象条件大幅转差,严控期大幅转好,长三角在复工复产期气象条件最有利;重点区域均为疫情严控期污染排放降幅最高,复工复产期降幅趋缓.