A comparison of fixed-site and non-fixed-site approaches for species protection

The efficacy of simultaneously advancing two distinct conceptual designs (referred to here as fixed-site and non-fixed-site) for species conservation and protection is addressed. In the literature, numerous models can be found that typically stem from a particular design, but rarely are comparisons made between approaches. This paper presents a more integrated optimization framework that models landowner behavior and species viabilities at a landscape scale. Regional demand for resource extraction is used as the economic driver, a variant of simulated annealing is used to solve the model under different species protection approaches, and a detailed species population simulator is utilized to measure biological responses. When directly comparing the outcomes of different species protection strategies from a case study in Oregon (USA), it was found that neither approach was universally superior in terms of financial value or degree of protection for two late seral forest dependent species.     

Efficiency,costs and trade-offs in marine reserve system design

With marine biodiversity conservation the primary goal for reserve planning initiatives, a site's conservation potential is typically evaluated on the basis of the biological and physical features it contains. By comparison, socio-economic information is seldom a formal consideration of the reserve system design problem and generally limited to an assessment of threats, vulnerability or compatibility with surrounding uses. This is perhaps surprising given broad recognition that the success of reserve establishment is highly dependent on widespread stakeholder and community support. Using information on the spatial distribution and intensity of commercial rock lobster catch in South Australia, we demonstrate the capacity of mathematical reserve selection procedures to integrate socio-economic and biophysical information for marine reserve system design. Analyses of trade-offs highlight the opportunities to design representative, efficient and practical marine reserve systems that minimise potential loss to commercial users. We found that the objective of minimising the areal extent of the reserve system was barely compromised by incorporating economic design constraints. With a small increase in area (<3%) and boundary length (<10%), the economic impact of marine reserves on the commercial rock lobster fishery was reduced by more than a third. We considered also how a reserve planner might prioritise conservation areas using information on a planning units selection frequency. We found that selection frequencies alone were not a reliable guide for the selection of marine reserve systems, but could be used with approaches such as summed irreplaceability to direct conservation effort for efficient marine reserve design.     

冀西北水源涵养区不同类型人工针叶林生态功能差异性评估

人工造林被认为是增加碳汇、保持水土和提高水质最有效的方法之一,造林林种的不同将产生不同的生态效应。通过调研土壤、气象及生态化学计量参数等对CENTURY模型进行本地化,模拟冀西北水源涵养区主要针叶造林树种 [落叶松（dahurian larch）、油松（pinus tabulaeformis）、侧柏（oriental arborvitae）和樟子松（Pinus sylvestris var. mongolical）] 的生态效应,并结合文献数据评价模型拟合精度。模型模拟结果显示：与幼龄林相比,落叶松、油松、侧柏和樟子松中龄林的土壤C、N、P总储量分别增加了3.37%、3.98%、2.84%和1.82%,土壤含水量增加了151.25%、73.62%、41.83%和94.98%。不同林种两个林龄平均蒸发量比较显示,落叶松（338.85 mm）<油松（399.86 mm）<侧柏（400.52 mm）<樟子松（401.82 mm）。落叶松可以作为水源涵养区造林的优选树种。樟子松和落叶松具有较强的N、P吸收能力,建议在农业污染的下游区域推广樟子松和落叶松的种植。     

基于底栖动物群落相似性的黑水河替代生境的研究

金沙江下游（以下简称“金下”）是重要的鱼类种质资源保护区,也是长江大保护关注的重要区域.在当前金下几座大型梯级水电站逐渐投入运行的背景下,区域内的水生态保护问题受到广泛关注.本研究中通过对金下3条主要支流（黑水河、西溪河和赤水河）进行底栖动物群落相似性分析,并结合环境因子对其相似性格局的影响进行了分析,探讨黑水河作为金沙江替代生境的可能性.研究发现,三条河流底栖动物主要由蜉蝣目、毛翅目和双翅目组成,三条河流中绝对优势类群均为蜉蝣目.黑水河和赤水河底栖动物的密度、生物量和生物多样性总体上高于西溪河.底栖动物群落相似性比较发现,黑水河与赤水河的上游群落结构相似性较高,且均以四节蜉科的敏感种为主要优势类群,而与距离黑水河更近的西溪河则表现出较低的相似性.典范对应分析发现海拔和总氮是影响底栖动物群落结构最显著的因子（P < 0.05）,分别代表了区域尺度的因子和局域生境的特征.虽然赤水河上游总体上受总氮影响较高,但相较于其他地区,其群落结构依然与黑水河上游更为相似,可能归因于两条河流更相似的物理生境.这表明即便在较大的空间尺度上,局域微生境对底栖动物群落仍具有较强的塑造作用.黑水河因与生态状况良好的赤水河在底栖动物群落相似性、生物量以及多样性特征上均较为相似,可以推测黑水河在该区域内可作为替代生境承担部分生态功能.     

Transition Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Review of Integrated Modeling Approaches

Agricultural water management (AWM) is an interdisciplinary concern, cutting across traditional domains such as agronomy, climatology, geology, economics, and sociology. Each of these disciplines has developed numerous process‐based and empirical models for AWM. However, models that simulate all major hydrologic, water quality, and crop growth processes in agricultural systems are still lacking. As computers become more powerful, more researchers are choosing to integrate existing models to account for these major processes rather than building new cross‐disciplinary models. Model integration carries the hope that, as in a real system, the sum of the model will be greater than the parts. However, models based upon simplified and unrealistic assumptions of physical or empirical processes can generate misleading results which are not useful for informing policy. In this article, we use literature and case studies from the High Plains Aquifer and Southeastern United States regions to elucidate the challenges and opportunities associated with integrated modeling for AWM and recommend conditions in which to use integrated models. Additionally, we examine the potential contributions of integrated modeling to AWM — the actual practice of conserving water while maximizing productivity. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Factors associated with motorcycle traffic crash fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel

Objective: Research on factors associated with motorcycle fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel is limited. This analysis describes motorcycle crash–related injuries from 1995 through 2014 and assesses the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of fatal injury among active duty U.S. Army motorcycle operators involved in a traffic crash, controlling for other factors shown to be potentially associated with fatality in this population.

Methods: Demographics, crash information, and injury data were obtained from safety reports maintained in the Army Safety Management Information System. Traffic crashes were defined as crashes occurring on a paved public or private roadway or parking area, including those on a U.S. Army installation. Analysis was limited to motorcycle operators. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) from a multivariable analysis estimated the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of a fatal injury given a crash occurred, controlling for operator and crash characteristics.

Results: Of the 2,852 motorcycle traffic crashes, most involved men (97%), operators aged 20–29 years of age (60%), and operators who wore helmets (95%) and did not use alcohol (92%). Two thirds of reported crashes resulted in injuries requiring a lost workday; 17% resulted in fatality. Controlling for operator and crash characteristics, motorcycle traffic crashes involving operators who had used alcohol had a 3.1 times higher odds of fatality than those who did not use alcohol (OR =3.14; 95% CI, 2.17–4.53). Operators who did not wear a helmet had 1.9 times higher odds of fatality than those who did wear a helmet (OR =1.89; 95% CI, 1.24–2.89).

Conclusions: Among U.S. Army motorcycle operators, alcohol use and not wearing a helmet increased the odds of fatality, given that a crash occurred, and additional modifiable risk factors were identified. Results will help inform U.S. Army motorcycle policies and training.     

低山丘陵区铁路建设工程弃渣场水土保持措施设计

弃渣场作为铁路建设项目水土流失最为严重的部分,其防护应提到首要位置。针对低山丘陵区铁路建设涉及的凹地型、坡地型、沟道型弃渣场,从弃渣场选址原则、不同类型的弃渣场比较、防护措施设计进行分析和阐述,构建完整的水土流失防治体系,为同类型铁路建设项目弃渣场防护措施设计提供参考。     

The spillover effects of coworker,supervisor, and outsider workplace incivility on work‐to‐family conflict: A weekly diary design

This study used an experience sampling design to examine the spillover effects of experienced workplace incivility from organizational insiders (coworkers and supervisors, respectively) and organizational outsiders (patients and their visitors) on targets' work‐to‐family conflict and to test the mediating effect of burnout and the moderating effect of display rules. Data collected over five consecutive weeks from 84 full‐time nurses showed that within individuals, weekly experiences of coworker incivility and outsider incivility were positively related to weekly experience of work‐to‐family conflict, and burnout mediated these relationships while controlling for initial level of burnout before participants started a week's work. In addition, display rules, defined as the extent to which individuals perceive they are expected to display desired positive emotions and suppress negative emotions at work, moderated the relationship between outsider incivility and burnout; specifically, the positive relationship between weekly outsider incivility and burnout was stronger for individuals who perceived a higher level of display rules. Our findings contribute to the literature by demonstrating the mediating effect of burnout and the moderating effect of perceived display rules in the relationship between workplace incivility from multiple sources and work‐to‐family conflict from a resource perspective.     

A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau, China

Urban water resources have been facing significant pressure from population growth, urbanization, and climate change. A system dynamics urban water management model was proposed to simulate the dynamic interactions between urban water demands and society, economy, climate, and water conservation. The residents'' water conservation willingness was incorporated in the model and water-saving effects were quantified. The simulation results for Macau showed that population size was the main driving force for urban water demand. The change of temperature and precipitation has obvious effects on the landscape water demand. The water demand output is sensitive to the change in population, per capita demand, and temperature. Increased precipitation will reduce urban water demand and increased economic growth will increase water demand. By implementing integrated water conservation measures and improved water conservation willingness, water demand could be reduced by 17.5%.     

基于贝叶斯理论的武器装备质量评估方法研究

目的面对不断变化的未来不确定战场环境,在有限资源和技术水平下,提出一种有效的武器装备质量评估方法。方法将专家调查法与贝叶斯网络法相结合,用专家调查法对装备整体质量的重要度进行描述,在科学选取装备质量指标的基础上,利用贝叶斯网络的推理功能估算装备质量变化情况,构建基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备质量评估模型。结果该方法评价过程中减少了主观因素的影响,准确性较高。结论该方法发挥了专家调查法对于模糊信息的定量判断能力,突出了贝叶斯网络方法处理非线性关系及预测和诊断的能力,有利于对装备质量做出科学合理的评估。