Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

带混合时间窗的多目标危险化学品运输路径优化

为降低危险化学品运输风险,使路径选择更加科学、切合实际,从责任主体、社会影响等方面综合考虑危险化学品运输相关主体,根据各主体目标对影响运输路径选择的指标进行重新识别和细分,提出5大指标体系。应用熵权法计算出各指标权重,建立混合时间窗条件下的多目标危化品运输路径优化模型,通过改进的多目标遗传算法求出Pareto最优解。结果表明,不同时间点出发会产生不同的Pareto最优解,并且可得到每条最优路径的出发时间窗,每个最优解代表了某项指标达到相对最优时的路径。混合时间窗较符合实际情况,基于出发时间窗及生成的多条最优路径,决策者可根据决策偏好及关注重点以较高效率选出最合适的路径。     

Community sustainability: a holistic approach to measuring the sustainability of rural communities in Scotland

ABSTRACT

Although sustainable development was defined in the Brundtland Report almost 30 years ago, the current usage of the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development remain highly equivocal. In the context of rural communities, multiple interpretations and weak definitions lead to confusion in understanding what comprises a sustainable rural community. Building on existing definitions (e.g. Baker’s, 2006, ‘Ladder of Sustainable Development’), models (principally, The Egan Review’s, 2004, ‘Components of Sustainable Communities’) and findings of this study, a sustainable community is defined and a holistic model of a sustainable place-based rural community is presented. This model, the sustainable community design (SCD) is used as the basis for analysing community sustainability, which is measured using mixed methods and scorecard assessment. Sensitivity of the method is demonstrated with inter- and intra-community variations in sustainability across three diverse Scottish rural communities. Intra-community variations illustrate heterogeneity in community sustainability, explain ambiguity in characterisations of an individual community’s sustainability, and highlight the importance of an interdisciplinary and holistic approach to community development. The SCD framework is presented as a useful tool for meso-level sustainability assessment and to facilitate the sustainable development of rural communities.     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

职业危害因素混合接触综合评价方法概述

作业场所同时接触多种职业危害因素的综合危害性日益引起广泛关注,如何对其进行科学的评价成为职业危害研究者面临的重要课题。本文对不同危害因素的混合危害作用的评价方法进行了系统的总结与归纳,探讨了混合作用的描述方法,分析了毒理学、流行病学、风险评价三大类方法应用于混合危害作用评价时的基本原理、核心思路和实施流程,此外对三种方法的特点进行了对比分析。     

Emissions of particulate matter and associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from agricultural diesel engine fueled with degummed, deacidified mixed crude palm oil blends

Mixed crude palm oil(MCPO),the mixture of palm fiber oil and palm kernel oil,has become of great interest as a renewable energy source.It can be easily extracted from whole dried palm fruits.In the present work,the degummed,deacidified MCPO was blended in petroleum diesel at portions of 30% and 40% by volume and then tested in agricultural diesel engines for long term usage.The particulates from the exhaust of the engines were collected every 500 hr using a four-stage cascade air sampler.The 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameters for the first three stages were 10,2.5 and 1μm,while the last stage collected all particles smaller than 1μm.Sixteen particle bounded polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) were analyzed using a high performance liquid chromatography.The results indicated that the size distribution of particulate matter was in the accumulation mode and the pattern of total PAHs associated with fine-particles(< 1μm) showed a dominance of larger molecular weight PAHs(4-6 aromatic rings),especially pyrene.The mass median diameter,PM and total PAH concentrations decreased when increasing the palm oil content,but increased when the running hours of the engine were increased.In addition,Commercial petroleum diesel(PB0) gave the highest value of carcinogenic potency equivalent(BaP eq) for all particle size ranges.As the palm oil was increased,the BaP eq decreased gradually.Therefore the degummed-deacidified MCPO blends are recommended for diesel substitute.     

单菌种和混合菌处理养殖污水的效果

为了优化养殖污水处理系统中的生物膜法技术,研究了枯草芽孢杆菌(Bacillus subtilis)、酵母菌(Saccharomyces)和乳酸菌(Lactobacillus)及其混合菌对养殖污水的净化能力。实验共进行35 d,设置了8个处理组,以添加无菌生理盐水的处理组为对照组。结果表明,添加了菌种的处理组,对氨氮(NH4+-N)和亚硝氮(NO2--N)的处理效果显著优于对照组(PP4+-N和NO2--N的去除率均达到90%以上;接种枯草芽孢杆菌的4个处理组对无机磷(TP)的去除能力要显著高于其他未接种该菌的处理组,TP的最终浓度维持在0.2 mg/L,而其他处理组在0.59 mg/L以上;添加菌种的各处理组对化学需氧量(CODMn)的去除效果差异不显著(P>0.05),但均显著高于对照组(P<0.05),其中3种菌混合的处理组去除率最高,达76.9%。在本实验条件下,混合菌处理污水的能力要优于单菌种,3种菌混合的处理组要优于菌种两两混合的处理组。     

辐射化学剂量计在强脉冲混合辐射场测定中的应用

本文讨论了将硫酸亚铁剂量计和铜－铁剂量计用于强脉冲混合辐射场测定的实验设计,利用直径２２０毫米的聚乙烯球,将硫酸亚铁剂量计的快中子响应降低到２０％以下,由它和完全暴露在中子、γ混合场中的硫酸亚铁剂量计响应之差,测量中子吸收剂量。这种方法两次实际用于强脉冲混合辐射场中子、γ吸收剂量测量,得到的结果和热释光剂量计、固体径迹探测器的测量结果进行了比较,在±２５％的误差范围内一致     

鼎湖山针阔叶混交林生态系统水文过程研究

以鼎湖山针阔叶混交林（以下简称混交林）生态系统为研究对象，探讨了不同降水特征下森林生态系统水文过程，主要研究结果如下：（1）不同的降雨特征决定了不同的降雨过程和穿透雨过程，混交林生态系统穿透雨累积增加曲线与降水量的累积增加曲线变化是同步的；（2）2002年7月27日-28日特大暴雨最大降水量、最大穿透雨量分别为122．8nn和104．9mm,且穿透雨最大值出现的时间滞后于降水强度最大值出现的时间1h；（3）8月18日-20日特大暴雨，穿透雨量累积增加曲线与大气降水的累积增加曲线非常相似，且穿透雨最大值出现的时间略滞后与大气降水最大值出现的时间；（4）中雨时降水累积量达到最大值（59．6mm）与穿透雨累积量达到最大值（43．6mm）的时间一致；（5）树干流和地表径流量与大气降水量的累积变化曲线并不是完全同步的，在一定的降水量范围内，树干流量和地表径流量随着大气降水量的增加而增加；（6）无论是特大暴雨还是中雨发生时，即使在特大暴雨影响下，树干流（2．3～16．4mm）和地表径流（1．6～8．8mm）量都很小，系统具有很强的保水保墒能力；（7）混交林穿透雨强度变化过程基本取决于大气降水强度变化，树干流强度和地表径流强度数值很小且变化过程不明显。     

毛竹混交林主要种群多维生态位特征

应用生态位空间分割法，分别考虑资源利用率与否测定毛竹混交林多维资源空间中主要种群多维生态位宽度及多维生态位重叠，结果表明：考虑资源利用率与否对多维生态位宽度的测定有较大的影响，毛竹混交林中主要种群的多维生态位宽度与物种的生物学特性及竞争力密切相关，同一生境中物种的多维生态位重叠可通过生态位分化而减少竞争，研究毛竹混交林主要种群多维生态位特征对毛竹混交林营造具有指导作用．表8参24．