事故调查分析方法与技术述评

根据事故的原因结果模型、过程模型、能量模型、逻辑树模型、SHE管理模型将事故调查分析技术方法归纳为5大类,介绍了广泛使用的事故调查分析技术方法的特点,并按一定的标准进行分析和比较。分析表明:每种方法都有其不同的应用领域和优缺点,应针对不同领域问题选用合适的分析方法,多种调查技术组合分析适用于复杂事故的调查;考虑事件次序及其影响因素的调查方法,便于提出预防事故再次发生和减少风险的建议,图表阐述有利于鉴别信息缺陷,并使调查组之间的沟通有力;笔者在调查过程中注重于非正常分析方法得出的结果,宜采用更为先进的事故分析技术方法以保证事故调查的客观性。     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

化学危险品事故应急响应大气扩散模型评述

针对化学危险品的事故要求能迅速地对事故的性质和可能产生危险的区域进行辨识,并能尽早地告知有关事故的性质以及可能的危险区域范围。为了快速确定事故性质及危险区域范围,通常利用应急响应系统,其核心是大气扩散模型。笔者概述了多种大气扩散模型,对当前应用较为广泛的应急大气扩散模型:SLAB,DEGADIS,ALOHA,ARCHIE,DEMRA和LPDM等作了深入剖析;对其应用作了评价;对应急大气扩散模型研究提出了建议。     

基于油罐火灾数值模拟的模型选取与分析

计算机模拟方法是当今研究油罐火灾发生、发展规律的重要手段。为此 ,从油罐燃烧的特点出发 ,搜集了当前最新的 1 7种火灾模型 ,对比分析了它们的特点和适用范围 ,并筛选出 7种适于模拟油罐火灾的模型 :ALOFT -FT ,FDS ,CFX ,FLUENT ,PHOENICS ,JASMINE和FIRE。通过对这些模型计算方法的进一步比较 ,分析了利用这 7种模型模拟油罐火灾的优点和缺点。最后 ,提出了运用FDS模型模拟油罐火灾的优势 ,并用其进行了计算和分析 ,得到了满意的结果     

USE AND MISUSE OF COMPLEX MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The power of computers has increased in recent decades, and one might expect improved management to result because decisions can be made with understanding available only via models. However, there is potential for quite the opposite: poor decisions due to unrealistic model output generated by users without access to appropriate training in the use of models. We discuss and, by reference to water demand models (IWR-MAIN, MWD-MAIN), illustrate three areas in which unintended errors of judgment by untrained personnel may cause difficulty:

• * Attributes of management models; if output from any type of model has no measure of confidence, then results may be over- or undervalued
• * Input data; with complex models, problems here typically will be difficult to detect.
• * Calibration and history-matching (verification); if these steps or data are combined, then users should be less trustful of model output than otherwise.

Because all models have weaknesses and because there always is uncertainty about output from any model, we end with suggestions for coping with complex models. Monitoring programs play a central role in such efforts because they can identify discrepancies between model predictions and actual events and because they can ensure time is available to develop solutions for problems unanticipated in the modeling effort.     

Ranked set sampling: an annotated bibliography

The paper provides an up-to-date annotated bibliography of the literature on ranked set sampling. The bibliography includes all pertinent papers known to the authors, and is intended to cover applications as well as theoretical developments. The annotations are arranged in chronological order and are intended to be sufficiently complete and detailed that a reading from beginning to end would provide a statistically mature reader with a state-of-the-art survey of ranked set sampling, including historical development, current status, and future research directions and applications. A final section of the paper gives a listing of all annotated papers, arranged in alphabetical order by author.This paper was prepared with partial support from the United States Environmental Protection Agency under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subject to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

生物膜微环境和传质现象研究进展

生物膜法污水处理工艺对污染物的降解去除主要依赖活性生物膜,研究生物膜的结构和传质特性是揭示反应机理和提高反应器处理效率的重要手段.综述了近年来国外在生物膜微环境和微观传质过程中的研究进展,包括对生物膜微观结构的解析、膜内不同菌系的分布特征及其功能以及生物膜的传质现象和数学模型.在此基础上,提出了生物膜研究领域今后应开展的研究方向.     

From the attitude-behaviour-gap to a producer-people-gap?

The so-called attitude-behaviour-gap of ecology might have changed to a ?producer-people-gap”. In summer 2017 in Germany, the intention of private house-builders to buy an exterior insulation system based on renewable materials was measured as positive, with a mean of 5.2 on a 1–7 Likert scale. But the intentions of professionals were clearly below, e.g. craftsmen, with an average of 3.6 on the same scale – although both groups, the privates and the professionals, judged that there is a clear trend towards such products.

Because of these findings, an additional investigation of management by producers was conducted in autumn and winter 2017/2018, in which a very critical atmosphere towards renewable materials was found. It was analyzed that the managements` attitudes might not be a basic refusal of renewable material in general, but rather a fear of costs of research and development of new products.

A concept was tested, to see if it would be possible to cause an attitude change within the professional key target groups just by applying marketing instruments. Five articles in key media of this market have been published between February and May 2018. In the following evaluation (n = 150) in May 2018 significant effects of the communication have been measured: The intention of decision-makers in craftsmen`s businesses to buy an exterior insulation system based on renewable material rose significantly (0.01 Lv.) from a mean of 3.6 in 2017 to 4.4 in 2018.     

非点源污染模型研究进展

随着点源污染的有效控制,非点源污染已成为水体污染的主要因素,如何有效地控制和管理非点源污染已成为水环境整治的一项重要任务。而计算机模型是极其有效的流域非点源污染模拟和污染负荷估算的定量化工具,为非点源污染评价、管理和控制提供了可靠依据。文章综述了非点源污染模型的发展概况及其研究不足,并对模型的发展趋势进行了分析和预测。由于非点源污染随机性大、分布范围广、形成机理模糊、管理控制难度大等特点,未来非点源污染的量化模型研究及其与量化模型有关的相应参数研究、模型与GIS集成研究将成为未来研究的主流。     

Gaps and Mismatches between Global Conservation Priorities and Spending

Abstract:  Several international conservation organizations have recently produced global priority maps to guide conservation activities and spending in their own and other conservation organizations. Surprisingly, it is not possible to directly evaluate the relationship between priorities and spending within a given organization because none of the organizations with global priority models tracks how they spend their money relative to their priorities. We were able, however, to evaluate the spending patterns of five other large biodiversity conservation organizations without their own published global priority models and investigate the potential influence of priority models on this spending. On average, countries with priority areas received greater conservation investment; global prioritization systems, however, explained between only 2 and 32% of the US$1.5 billion spent in 2002, depending on whether the United States was removed from analyses and whether conservation spending was adjusted by the per capita gross domestic product within each country. We also found little overlap in the spending patterns of the five conservation organizations evaluated, suggesting that informal coordination or segregation of effort may be occurring. Our results also highlight a number of potential gaps and mismatches in how limited conservation funds are spent and provide the first audit of global conservation spending patterns. More explicit presentation of conservation priorities by organizations currently without priority models and better tracking of spending by those with published priorities are clearly needed to help make future conservation activities as efficient as possible.