A Behaviorally Explicit Demographic Model Integrating Habitat Selection and Population Dynamics in California Sea Lions

Abstract: Although there has been a call for the integration of behavioral ecology and conservation biology, there are few tools currently available to achieve this integration. Explicitly including information about behavioral strategies in population viability analyses may enhance the ability of conservation biologists to understand and estimate patterns of extinction risk. Nevertheless, most behavioral‐based PVA approaches require detailed individual‐based data that are rarely available for imperiled species. We present a mechanistic approach that incorporates spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models used for conservation. We developed a stage‐structured matrix model that includes the costs and benefits of movement associated with 2 habitat‐selection strategies (philopatry and direct assessment). Using a life table for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we explored the sensitivity of model predictions to the inclusion of these behavioral parameters. Including behavioral information dramatically changed predicted population sizes, model dynamics, and the expected distribution of individuals among sites. Estimated population sizes projected in 100 years diverged up to 1 order of magnitude among scenarios that assumed different movement behavior. Scenarios also exhibited different model dynamics that ranged from stable equilibria to cycles or extinction. These results suggest that inclusion of behavioral data in viability models may improve estimates of extinction risk for imperiled species. Our approach provides a simple method for incorporating spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models and may be easily extended to other species and behaviors to understand the mechanisms of population dynamics for imperiled populations.     

水电工程抗震设防概率水准和地震作用概率模型

本文基于我国已有的二十余个重大水利水电工程场地地震危险性分析的结果,运用概率分析方法探讨了水电工程抗震设防的概率水准和地震作用的概率模型,以便为正在修订中的《水工建筑物抗震设计规范》提供依据。     

MODELING WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to present a theory and model for assessing the financial health of public water systems. Using financial information from 25 water utilities in Georgia, the paper seeks to identify the causal relationships between the financial performance of a water utility and its fiscal position. The need for a theoretical understanding of water utility financial health is the result of the increasingly stringent performance requirements under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The issue has become particularly important for small water systems that will be exposed to significant financial demands. A set of financial ratios were developed and tested in a model that was based on liquid asset theory. The model contained five variables designed to account for the size of liquid assets, current debt, cash-flow, and the level of expenses. The variables fit the need of water utilities: to provide an adequate level of operation and maintenance to meet current and future system needs as well as SDWA standards.     

INCOMMENSURABLES AND TRADEOFFS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Society has many objectives, many of which are not commensurable. This incommensurability problem is generally referred to as the multiple objective problem and leads to the notion of tradeoffs. Various approaches to calculating tradeoffs in water resource development have been advocated by several authors. Many have made errors in the context of the conceptural model presented in this paper. It is argued the correct framework for tradeoff analysis is the neoclassical economic model. The relevant tradeoffs, then, are really price ratios. These, in turn, must be calculated in such a manner as to allow comparison of product mixes where the expenditure on resources is the same. This is where several authors have erred. An empirical example which illustrates the correct application of the model is presented.     

DEMAND PROJECTIONS CONSIDERING CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Prediction of future water demands depends on the degree to which conservation effects can be anticipated. A model developed for the Corps of Engineers shows that choosing a numerical conservation target to be achieved is more meaningful and yields more predictable results than price or price elasticity manipulations. The method developed and then applied to the Kaneohe Bay region of Oahu considers the following determinants of demand: geographic distribution of the users, indoor and outdoor requirements, time - by year and month of the year, precipitation, historical unit usage rates, gross and irrigable acreage of land uses, price for water, elasticity of demand with respect to price, source of the water supply (local private supplies vs. agency supplies), and the percentage conservation savings anticipated in each future period in indoor and outdoor uses of water in each of 40 possible land uses. While developed for use in Hawaii, the model is applicable generally.     

EFFECTIVE USE OF LANDSAT DATA IN HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

ABSTRACT: In a cooperative demonstration project, NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) compared conventional and Landsat-derived land-use data for use in hydrologic models, and the resulting discharge frequency curves were analyzed. When a grid-based data-management system was used on a cell-by-cell basis (size about 1.1 acres or 0.45 hectare), Landsat classification accuracy was only 64 percent, but, when the grid cells were aggregated into watersheds, the classification accuracy increased to about 95 percent. When both conventional and Landsat land-use data were input to the HEC-1 model for generating discharge frequency curves, the differences in calculated discharge were judged insignificant for subbasins as small as 1.0mi² (2.59 km²). For basins larger than 10mi² (25.9km²), use of the Landsat approach is more cost-effective than use of conventional methods. Digital Landsat data can also be used effectively by local and regional agencies for hydrologic analysis by incorporating the data into grid-based data-management systems. The transfer of this new technology is well under way through inclusion in some Corps training courses and through use by both county government personnel and private consultants.     

Reconsidering the Dynamic Interaction of Renewable Resources and Population Growth: A Focus on Long-Run Sustainability

Within the framework of a general equilibrium model we study the long-run dynamics of resources and population if the growth rate of resources and population and the share of labor devoted to production are adversely affected by resource scarcity. Our results show that sustainability, i.e. a positive value of resources and population in the long run, essentially depends on the level of per capita resources at which these feedback mechanisms become active. A detailed bifurcation analysis evidences the richness of possible long-run dynamics.     

多层栽培制度在提高热带退化土壤生产潜力方面的作用和机制

针对老胶园普遍存在的严重土壤侵蚀、肥力下降、胶乳产量低等现象,本研究结合胶园更新布置了四种PEMLU模式。几年来的试验结果表明,PEMLU模式中的FEF模式比对照减少径流量66.7％,减少土壤冲刷量65.1％,有机质从原来的0.536％增加到1.34％。四种模式增加凋落物累积量83—288％,并促进了胶树生长,开割前年均每公顷可增产值2830—6650元。WRT模式具有较强的抗灾能力。本文用FWBG模型对四种PEMLU模式进行了定量分析。结果表明,FEF模式具有最优的综合效益。WRS模式具有投资少、效益高的特点,适于大面积推广。     

Quantifying sediment-associated metal dispersal using Pb isotopes: Application of binary and multivariate mixing models at the catchment-scale

In this study Pb isotope signatures were used to identify the provenance of contaminant metals and establish patterns of downstream sediment dispersal within the River Maritsa catchment, which is impacted by the mining of polymetallic ores. A two-fold modelling approach was undertaken to quantify sediment-associated metal delivery to the Maritsa catchment; employing binary mixing models in tributary systems and a composite fingerprinting and mixing model approach in the wider Maritsa catchment. Composite fingerprints were determined using Pb isotopic and multi-element geochemical data to characterize sediments delivered from tributary catchments. Application of a mixing model allowed a quantification of the percentage contribution of tributary catchments to the sediment load of the River Maritsa. Sediment delivery from tributaries directly affected by mining activity contributes 42-63% to the sediment load of the River Maritsa, with best-fit regression relationships indicating that sediments originating from mining-affected tributaries are being dispersed over 200 km downstream.     

Risk models for wildfowl diseases

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of computer models, including artificial intelligence systems, in the context of risk assessment and management for wildfowl diseases. In particular, the paper focuses on avian cholera and botulism in U.S. wildfowl, which are a source of continuing concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Severe outbreaks occur frequently, and some have been estimated to claim the lives of as many as 300 000 waterfowl. A potentially valuable support to the USFWS would be a set of models that assist in recognizing situations with high risk of an outbreak, assessing the anticipated severity of an outbreak, and advising on possible preventive measures. The USFWS has already initiated development of several potentially useful models. This paper reviews these as well as other related efforts, within the overall context of risk management for avian botulism and cholera.