基于环境投入产出的多视角全球二氧化硫排放

国际贸易的迅速发展是贸易隐含污染物排放转移的主要驱动因素,排放转移的出现将排放责任的研究从生产者视角贡献逐渐引向了消费者视角贡献.合理的排放责任界定成为区域减排的重要参考.本研究利用多区域环境投入产出模型,以当前社会广泛关注的大气污染物二氧化硫为载体,详细分析了2007年全球各地区基于生产者视角、生产链末端视角、消费者视角、考量区域减排努力的改进的消费者视角的大气污染物排放贡献,并对各个视角下的区域排放进行比较和分析.结果表明:西欧、北美、日澳新等地区生产者、生产链末端、消费者视角的排放依次升高,而南亚、东亚地区的排放依次减小.大量的二氧化硫排放从西欧、北美随着国际贸易供应链转移到东亚地区.全球各地区二氧化硫排放强度的差异和全球贸易导致的生产格局的变化均为排放转移的原因.本研究是贸易引致环境问题研究的重要补充,为区域乃至全球从贸易角度降低区域大气污染问题提供了科学依据.     

多种盐分离子作用下苋菜对重金属的吸收累积特征

模拟不同淋洗脱盐阶段滩涂土壤孔隙水中盐分和重金属含量,通过苋菜水培试验,研究多种盐分离子（SO42-、Cl-、NO3-、CO32-、Na＋、Ca2＋、K＋和Mg2＋等）的共同作用下,苋菜对Zn、Cu、Ni、Cr、Pb和Cd 6种重金属的吸收、累积和转运的变化。结果表明,与对照相比,在不同盐分离子浓度影响下,苋菜茎叶中Cd的累积增幅为69.2%～146.2%,而茎叶中其他重金属的含量无显著变化,苋菜根系中Cd、Pb、Cr、Ni和Cu含量的最大增幅分别为187.8%、197.7%、305.7%、228.1%和58.2%,但根系中Zn含量未受到显著影响。在相对较高的盐分离子浓度（〉1 312.4 mg.L-1）范围内,不同盐分离子浓度处理间苋菜茎叶和根系中6种重金属含量差异均不显著。盐分处理显著降低了苋菜对Pb、Cr、Ni和Cu的转移系数,但未显著影响苋菜对Cd和Zn的转移系数。     

珠江口叶绿素a时空分布及初级生产力

2006年5月至2008年2月季度性对珠江口叶绿素a的时空分布特征及其与环境因子的关系以及珠江口水域初级生产力等进行研究。结果表明,表层叶绿素a含量分别与底层、上游叶绿素a含量间无显著差异;表层叶绿素a含量在夏、春季明显大于秋、冬季,但各口门间无显著差异。珠江口水域初级生产力水平夏、秋季明显高于春、冬季,但各口门间无显著差异。表层叶绿素a含量分别与浮游植物细胞密度、初级生产力间相关显著。不同口门及不同季节间影响叶绿素a含量的环境因子存在较大差异。     

多层栽培制度在提高热带退化土壤生产潜力方面的作用和机制

针对老胶园普遍存在的严重土壤侵蚀、肥力下降、胶乳产量低等现象,本研究结合胶园更新布置了四种PEMLU模式。几年来的试验结果表明,PEMLU模式中的FEF模式比对照减少径流量66.7％,减少土壤冲刷量65.1％,有机质从原来的0.536％增加到1.34％。四种模式增加凋落物累积量83—288％,并促进了胶树生长,开割前年均每公顷可增产值2830—6650元。WRT模式具有较强的抗灾能力。本文用FWBG模型对四种PEMLU模式进行了定量分析。结果表明,FEF模式具有最优的综合效益。WRS模式具有投资少、效益高的特点,适于大面积推广。     

Testing the MAGIC acid rain model in highly organic,low-conductivity waters using multiple calibrations

Accurate predictions of acid precipitation effects on water resources are important in order to allow a better understanding of various pollution control strategy outcomes. Dynamic geochemical models have been developed to address this need, but have to be tested under a variety of environmental conditions to provide confidence in their predictions. The most commonly used aquatic acidification model in North America and Europe is the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). Though extensively used, MAGIC has never been tested in catchments with extremely low ionic strength water and high in natural organic acids (NOAs) from wetlands, two conditions which are common in large parts of Canada. We calibrated the model for two catchments located in Nova Scotia, Canada, which had some of the most dilute freshwaters reported in the literature and very high NOA. We also evaluated the variability inherent in calibration data sets by using five separate data sets collected over a 15-year period at the same sites. We show good model simulations for the main cations and anions in catchment waters. However, modeling pH is more difficult in the highly organic waters and requires modification to the acid dissociation constants. Calculated acid neutralization capacity can also be more difficult to model due to the low ion content making small errors more important. In theory, multiple calibrations of a model at a same site should produce identical hindcasts and predictions. In reality, the multiple calibrations produced a series of similar, but not identical outcomes which give a probable range of past values and future outcomes. We feel that this practical approach to validation is a useful addition to the arsenal of model testing tools.     

IMPLEMENTATION OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR OPERATION OF A METROPOLITAN RESERVOIR SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A deterministic dynamic programming optimization model with a refining sectioning search procedure is developed and implemented to find least cost withdrawal and release patterns for water supple from a multiple reservoir system serving a metropolitan area. Applications are made to teh four reservoir system operated by the city of Dallas, Texas. A realistic cost structure, including nonlinear power consumption, block rate unit power costs, and flow dependent power consumption for intracity water distribution, is utilized. Applications are made to find least cost operating patterns and, as well, by inclusion of a water loss penalty function, supply patterns which will reduce evaporation water losses for the Dallas system.     

THE USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS IN PREDICTING SEDIMENT YIELD1

ABSTRACT. Four commonly used models for predicting sediment yield are analyzed and compared using previously published data. Three of these models involve logarithmic transformations. Some of the problems involved in transforming data are discussed in the context of logarithmic transformations. These problems are illustrated using the results of standard regression analyses and economic loss function analyses. For the data analyzed, the linear model is preferable to each of the logarithmic models on the basis of each analysis, and the usual multiple objective nature of the model choice problem is thus modified. The extent to which these results can be generalized is discussed in the context of model choice.     

OPTIMAL CAPACITIES OF WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS IN SERIES AND PARALLEL1

ABSTRACT: The planning of water supply reservoirs has traditionally been based on the Rippl or sequent peak analysis which applies to the design of a single reservoir. This paper incorporates the sequent peak method as the central feature in establishing a procedure for determining the sizes of several potential reservoirs located in a system of one or more rivers. Separate algorithms are developed for sites on parallel streams and for sites on the same stream. In both cases the approach is to find the combination of reservoirs which can satisfy a given constant monthly demand at a minimum total construction cost. It is shown that both problems can be cast in the form of a dynamic programming problem. A more complex system is then a combination of reservoirs in parallel and in series. An extension is given if the monthly demand is not constant but each reservoir satisfies a constant fraction of the monthly demand.     

A pilot study of the relationship between multiple sclerosis and the physical environment in northwest Ireland

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurological disease of unknown origin, but it is thought likely to have an environmental component in addition to genetic predisposition. It appears common in areas with underlying radon-producing granites. Radon exposure before the age of 15 years is postulated as a contributory cause in genetically susceptible individuals. Pilot studies were undertaken, with results which indicate that radon exposure may be a factor, and that the hypothesis warrants further investigation.