Objective: Electric bikes (e-bikes) have been one of the fastest growing trip modes in Southeast Asia over the past 2 decades. The increasing popularity of e-bikes raised some safety concerns regarding urban transport systems. The primary objective of this study was to identify whether and how the generalized linear regression model (GLM) could be used to relate cyclists' safety with various contributing factors when riding in a mid-block bike lane. The types of 2-wheeled vehicles in the study included bicycle-style electric bicycles (BSEBs), scooter-style electric bicycles (SSEBs), and regular bicycles (RBs).
Methods: Traffic conflict technology was applied as a surrogate measure to evaluate the safety of 2-wheeled vehicles. The safety performance model was developed by adopting a generalized linear regression model for relating the frequency of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and regular bikes to the operating speeds of BSEBs, SSEBs, and RBs in mid-block bike lanes.
Results: The frequency of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and bikes increased with an increase in the operating speeds of e-bikes and the volume of e-bikes and bikes and decreased with an increase in the width of bike lanes. The large speed difference between e-bikes and bikes increased the frequency of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and bikes in mid-block bike lanes. A 1% increase in the average operating speed of e-bikes would increase the expected number of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and bikes by 1.48%. A 1% increase in the speed difference between e-bikes and bikes would increase the expected number of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes/bikes by 0.16%.
Conclusions: The conflict frequency in mid-block bike lanes can be modeled using generalized linear regression models. The factors that significantly affected the frequency of rear-end conflicts included the operating speeds of e-bikes, the speed difference between e-bikes and regular bikes, the volume of e-bikes, the volume of bikes, and the width of bike lanes. The safety performance model can help better understand the causes of crash occurrences in mid-block bike lanes. 相似文献
Objective: The primary purpose of this study was to examine the association between variations in visual behavior measures and subjective sleepiness levels across age groups over time to determine a quantitative method of measuring drivers' sleepiness levels.
Method: A total of 128 volunteer drivers in 4 age groups were asked to finish 2-, 3-, and 4-h continuous driving tasks on expressways, during which the driver's fixation, saccade, and blink measures were recorded by an eye-tracking system and the subjective sleepiness level was measured through the Stanford Sleepiness Scale. Two-way repeated measures analysis of variance was then used to examine the change in visual behavior measures across age groups over time and compare the interactive effects of these 2 factors on the dependent visual measures.
Results: Drivers' visual behavior measures and subjective sleepiness levels vary significantly over time but not across age groups. A statistically significant interaction between age group and driving duration was found in drivers' pupil diameter, deviation of search angle, saccade amplitude, blink frequency, blink duration, and closure duration. Additionally, change in a driver's subjective sleepiness level is positively or negatively associated with variation in visual behavior measures, and such relationships can be expressed in regression models for different period of driving duration.
Conclusions: Driving duration affects drivers' sleepiness significantly, so the amount of continuous driving time should be strictly controlled. Moreover, driving sleepiness can be quantified through the change rate of drivers' visual behavior measures to alert drivers of sleepiness risk and to encourage rest periods. These results provide insight into potential strategies for reducing and preventing traffic accidents and injuries. 相似文献
Objective: Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to–passenger car accidents and incorporates age—in addition to collision speed and injury severity—as a plug-in parameter.
Methods: Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression.
Results: The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians.
Conclusions: The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found. 相似文献
为掌握合肥市大气环境中O_3的时空变化特征及其影响因素,对合肥市2013—2015年空气质量监测数据和气象参数进行系统的分析.结果表明,合肥市O_3污染在夏、秋季节有逐渐加重的趋势,尤其是城市中心区域,呈显著的季节特征和日单峰性;O_3易在风速小于3.3 m·s-1、相对湿度介于50%~60%、地面气压低于1020 h Pa和日平均气温介于25~28℃的气象条件下出现浓度峰值;合肥市O_3浓度与NO2和VOCs分别存在显著的负相关和正相关关系,其中,烯烃、烷烃、芳香烃和炔烃对O_3生成潜势(OFP)的贡献值依次增大.O_3浓度可通过前一日O_3浓度、相对湿度、平均气温、PM2.5、当日8:00风速、平均气压及NO2等参数建立良好的统计预报模型,非标准化可决系数R2高达0.559. 相似文献
Haze in China is primarily caused by high pollution of atmospheric fine particulates (PM2.5). However, the detailed source structures of PM2.5 light extinction have not been well established, especially for the roles of various organic aerosols, which makes haze management lack specified targets. This study obtained the mass concentrations of the chemical compositions and the light extinction coefficients of fine particles in the winter in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, using high time resolution aerosol observation instruments. We combined the positive matrix factor (PMF) analysis model of organic aerosols and the multiple linear regression method to establish a quantitative relationship model between the main chemical components, in particular the different sources of organic aerosols and the extinction coefficients of fine particles with a high goodness of fit (R2 = 0.953). The results show that the contribution rates of ammonium sulphate, ammonium nitrate, biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA), secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and black carbon (BC) were 48.1%, 20.7%, 15.0%, 10.6%, and 5.6%, respectively. It can be seen that the contribution of the secondary aerosols is much higher than that of the primary aerosols (79.4% versus 20.6%) and are a major factor in the visibility decline. BBOA is found to have a high visibility destroying potential, with a high mass extinction coefficient, and was the largest contributor during some high pollution periods. A more detailed analysis indicates that the contribution of the enhanced absorption caused by BC mixing state was approximately 37.7% of the total particle absorption and should not be neglected. 相似文献