旅游规划中的目的地竞合分析——以芜湖市为例

经过多年旅游开发实践的驱动，我国旅游规划工作有了长足发展，但目前仍存在旅游规划模式化，忽视规划区的“地方性”，缺乏规划区的区际与区内旅游空间竞争与合作关系研究等，使规划区功能、产品、市场等定位不准，策划的项目与周边区域雷同等问题突出。在旅游规划中加强目的地竞合分析是寻求目的地特色、准确定位、优化线路、创新产品体系等的前提和重要、有效的技术手段。阐述了旅游目的地竞合分析的内容和方法，并以芜湖市为例，对芜湖市的区内和区际旅游空间竞合进行分析，提出了芜湖市旅游功能定位、战略目标与空间布局。     

可持续发展与区域环境规划

可持续发展理论对区域环境规划提出了新的要求。本文介绍了可持续发展与传统发展模式的不同之处，并对如何将可持续发展理念融入到区域环境规划的各个阶段中，提出了相关建议。     

元素赋存状态的研究及其在矿产资源综合利用中的意义

元素赋存状态的研究是指研究元素在矿石中的存在状态，且尽可能对其进行定量研究的工作。目前元素赋存状态的研究手段很多，不同的矿山和企业可根据实际情况有选择地采用。我国是资源短缺型国家，元素赋存状态的研究是资源合理有效利用的关键，可以避免盲目开采对资源的浪费和经济上的损失。     

Assessing differences in chemical disaster proneness: The community chemical hazard vulnerability inventory*

The burgeoning number of accidents with dangerous chemicals makes it incumbent upon community and regional planners to systematically deal with this problem. The first step invariably involves the assessment of the likelihood and type of incident which may impact a given area so that disasters may be averted or, at least, their effects mitigated. This paper presents one such assessment scheme, the Community Chemical Hazard Vulnerability Inventory (CCHVI). This instrument, aside from considering the type and volume of substances posing a threat to a designated area, considers the physical and human resources available, as well as the general state of readiness of the area (including such things as the interface of emergency-related organizations). The use of such vulnerability assessment instruments allows local emergency planners to identify particular dangers within their communities and permits regional planners to allocate funds for planning according to relative needs.     

THE ENGINEER'S ROLE IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Engineers have traditionally led the planning effort in water resources developments. The engineer's leadership role in water resources, as well as in many other planning activities, has been challenged by technical and scientific people as well as by the general public for insensitivity to social, aesthetic, ecological, and political problems created by planning. The paper draws attention to the fact that the engineer cannot continue to expect the role of leadership to fall to him unless he prepares himself properly for that role. However, it is brought out that the engineer, by his education and training, is still the best qualified among all the representatives of the various disciplines associated with water resources planning to lead the planning effort if he prepares himself for the task. The requirements for preparation for leading water resources planning are outlined.     

PROJECT 2000, A PLANNING IMPERATIVE1

Time is running out on this country's planners. Generally speaking, the art of planning has retrogressed since the time of Christ. If we are to survive, this will have to be drastically changed by the year 2000. To achieve this, we need to begin to change our thinking, today. We badly need wider social planning, giving us more alternatives-more thought on where we are going. Reasonableness requires blending of planning and construction-but a sharp line of independence is essential. We must think about all the consequences of a particular act. Through intensive professional development and achievement of professional expertise, many outstanding technicians often move into vital decision making positions within their respective agencies. As planners, they see a part of the action but miss the big picture. Problem solutions become restricted to agency or individual authorities and are not always the best alternative. Thus, the planning field is overflowing with solutions to our every problem but many solutions offer spot control, and while the black spot is removed from the garment the white spot remaining from the solution offers little consolation to the wearer.     

Global-scale vs. regional-scale scenario assumptions: implications for estimating future water withdrawals in the Elbe River basin

In this paper, we explore how scenarios of future water withdrawals in a river basin are influenced by scale-dependent quantifications of the driving forces for two global-scale storylines. Either global-scale information or region-specific information is used to do the quantifications. In addition, we analyze the impact of including or not some restricted regional-scale information in the employed water use model. To develop scenarios of water withdrawals in the German part of the Elbe River basin, we applied the modules for domestic, thermoelectric power and manufacturing water use of the global water model WaterGAP, using scale-dependent driving forces scenarios and other scale-dependent model input. In the global-scale quantitative interpretations of the storylines of the IPCC SRES scenarios A1 and B2, all major driving forces of water withdrawals in the basin—population, thermoelectric power production and industrial gross domestic product—show vigorous increases between 2000 and 2025, while from the regional perspective, smaller increases but mostly decreases appear to be plausible. These discrepancies are partly due to the fact that for the global-scale interpretations only the historic developments until 1990 were taken into account, and not until 2000 as in the regional case. The resulting scenarios of sectoral water withdrawals in 2025 differ strongly between the two scale-dependent interpretations of the storylines, with the global one leading to much higher absolute water withdrawals and much lower withdrawal decreases between 2000 and 2025. Therefore, for regional assessments of water withdrawals, we recommend to embed the scenario analysis in global-scale storylines by performing regional-scale quantifications of the global qualitative driving forces scenarios, based on a limited amount of region-specific information.     

Housing reconstruction after two major earthquakes: the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the United States and the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

The idea of pre-impact recovery planning has recently been promoted by researchers and practitioners, but very little research has been done to evaluate its effects on disaster recovery. This study compared two jurisdictions — the city of Los Angeles, California and Taichung county in Taiwan — in their recovery from earthquakes. Although the two cases also differ with respect to variables other than the presence of pre-impact recovery plans, the available data suggest that having a pre-impact recovery plan facilitates housing reconstruction and allows local officials to make more effective use of the window of opportunity after disaster to integrate hazard mitigation into the recovery process.     

Effects of social interaction between Afghan refugees and Iranians on reproductive health attitudes

Afghan refugees in Iran, like many Muslims around the world, think that using contraceptives is against their religious beliefs. The majority of Iranians also thought so until a decade ago. Since then an all-encompassing social movement has emerged in Iran in which women and young people have played decisive roles. This movement has led to an attitude shift towards acceptance of family planning across Iranian society. High-ranking clerics, responding to the social movement, issued progressive edicts indicating that poor families could practise family planning. This paper reports the findings of focus group studies carried out among Afghan refugee men in two communities in Iran. The findings indicate that exposure to Iranian life, especially the rulings of Iranian clerics, have influenced Afghans' views on family planning. The findings also indicate that a system of justification is needed to help people avoid both social sanctions and individual stresses resulting from a controversial practice regarded as a sin for centuries.     

The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.