EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF STORAGE SCHEMES WITH DENDROHYDROLOGY AND THE HURST PHENOMENON1

ABSTRACT: The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75-year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62-year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet-dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water development planning.     

从理念探索到规划实践——关于“泉城”可持续发展规划的研究与思考

济南历史上是典型的“山水”城市 ,再现泉城特色 ,把济南建设成为“最适宜创业和最适宜居住”的现代化“山水生态城” ,实现城市的可持续发展。要科学把握现代城市发展的生态化、人文化趋势 ,顺时应势 ,发挥得天独厚的自然、人文优势 ,重建山水空间     

Modeling Opportunity Costs of Conservation in Transitional Landscapes

Abstract:  Conservation scientists recognize the urgency of incorporating opportunity costs into conservation planning. Despite this, applications to date have been limited, perhaps partly because of the difficulty in determining costs in regions with limited data on land prices and ownership. We present methods for estimating opportunity costs of land preservation in landscapes or ecoregions that are a changing mix of agriculture and natural habitat. Our approach derives from the literature on estimating land values as opportunity costs of alternate land uses and takes advantage of general availability of necessary data, even in relatively data-poor regions. The methods integrate probabilities of habitat conversion with region-wide estimates of economic benefits from agricultural land uses and estimate land values with a discount rate to convert annual values into net present values. We applied our method in a landscape undergoing agricultural conversion in Paraguay. Our model of opportunity costs predicted an independent data set of land values and was consistent with implicit discount rates of 15–25%. Model-generated land values were strongly correlated with actual land values even after correcting for the effect of property size and proportion of property that was forested. We used the model to produce a map of opportunity costs and to estimate the costs of conserving forest within two proposed corridors in the landscape. This method can be applied to conservation planning in situations where natural habitat is currently being converted to market-oriented land uses. Incorporating not only biological attributes but also socioeconomic data can help in the design of efficient networks of protected areas that represent biodiversity at minimum costs.     

基于资源环境承载力的规划结构优化方法探讨

规划结构合理性以及规划结构优化是规划环境影响评价关注的核心问题之一。文章以某煤电、煤化工基地规划环评为例,探讨了以区域资源、环境承载力为约束条件,以经济效益最大化为规划目标,采用线性规划法优化煤电、煤化工基地规划结构的过程。线性规划模型以煤电、煤化工产品的规模作为变量;资源、环境约束条件包括水资源消耗量、煤炭资源消耗量、蒸汽消耗量、电能消耗量、SO2排放量和CO2排放量。通过线性规划模型对煤电、煤化工产品的规模进行优化,在增加煤电、煤化工基地的经济效益的同时,减小了区域资源消耗和污染物排放水平。     

长江口污染控制区划分研究

为摸清长江口总体污染情况,通过查阅大量的文献资料,从地理位置、污染程度、海洋功能等方面对长江口污染控制区进行了划分;按地理位置把长江口分为南支、北支、南北港、南北槽4个污染控制区,按污染程度从长江口内向东依次分为严重污染海域区、中度污染海域区、轻度污染海域区、较清洁海域区和清洁海域区,按照海洋功能标准把长江口划分为港口航运区、渔业资源利用和养护区、旅游区、海水资源利用区、海洋保护区、特殊利用区、工程用海区和保留区。研究初步分析了长江口的总体污染现状,为长江口将来的环境规划、治理、发展和建设提供参考。     

交通规划环评的影响识别及案例分析

公路主枢纽、港口、以及城市交通在规划前必须进行环境影响评价。在交通规划环评中,根据其影响性质及影响范围的不同,从而决定影响识别的内容及方法的不同。交通规划本身和规划实施过程中存在着很大的不确定性,交通规划促进了节点城市的经济发展,增加了就业机会,对社会和经济的发展总体上是有利的;但交通规划在自然生态系统和环境质量方面多为负面影响,尤其是在建设初期,但这类影响多是短期的,随着建设期的完工,逐渐会消失。因此,可以通过对交通规划方案的影响分析,识别出主要的环评影响,减缓或消除由于决策失误造成的环境影响,从交通规划源头控制环境问题的产生。     

城市能源专项规划的环境影响评价——以《龙海市燃气专项规划》为例

从环境规划实际出发,以《龙海市燃气专项规划》的环境影响评价为例,针对城市能源专项规划需要解决的现状问题,提出可行的环境影响评价方法和环保控制措施,确保城市生态的可持续发展。     

系统分析法在规划环境影响评价中的应用——以滇南中心城市总体规划环境影响研究为例

介绍了系统分析法的概念和方法,通过滇南中心城市总体规划环境影响研究的实例,分析了系统分析法应用于规划环境影响评价中进行规划分析的步骤和方法。     

葫芦岛市城市总体规划环境合理性分析

葫芦岛市城市总体规划属于城市开发建设规划。在对葫芦岛市城市总体规划系统分析的基础上,采用比较分析的方法论证了规划在城市发展总体目标、工业用地布局及城市基础设施布局的环境合理性。     

生态工业园规划方法研究与展望

文章在对生态工业园概念、内涵和特征界定的基础上,提出园区规划的原则,研究讨论了国内外生态工业园规划的角度和方法,将生态工业园的规划方法划分为面向过程和面向对象两大类,并详细论述了从面向对象的角度出发,解决园区建设中水网、交通道路网、景观生态网布局,生物多样性保护,能量和水集成,主产品和废物代谢,污染控制等实际问题的具体方法。