基于国民经济和人口发展目标的建设用地需求规模预测研究--以武汉市黄陂区为例

常用的建设用地需求量预测方法有回归分析法、灰色系统法。但这两种方法的共同点是根据历史统计数据预测未来建设用地需求规模。对国民经济和人口发展目标考虑较少。但建设用地规模与国民经济、人口之间的相关关系十分密切。必须针对国民经济和人口发展目标，分析建设用地效益和人均建设用地指标，确定国民经济和人口发展对建设用地的需求规模，结合基本农田保护、生态安全对建设用地规模和布局的制约。最终确定建设用地发展的合理规模。以武汉市黄陂区为例。在完全考虑国民经济和人口发展目标条件下。结合该区基本农田保护政策和生态安全等制约因素的影响。确定该区建设用地合理规模。     

基于全球公顷和国家公顷的生态足迹核算差异分析

为对基于全球公顷或是国家公顷来核算生态足迹的差异进行比较分析，分别采用全球公顷法和国家公顷法对安徽省2003年生态足迹进行核算。全球公顷法核算的生态足迹需求、生态承载力、生态赤字分别为1．765909hm^2／cap，0．435083hm^2／cap，1．330826hm^2／cap；而国家公顷法核算的结果则分别为0．955026hm^2／cap。0．102027hm^2／cap，0．852999hm^2／cap。对核算结果差异的产生原因进行分析表明：①采用全球公顷法将会扩大国家生态足迹的核算误差；②全球平均产量难以体现产品之间的属性差异；③使用全球公顷法核算时的数据汇总难度大；④以国家为统计对象的全球公顷法在全球范畴内进行国际比较时具有优越性，但在对国家以下尺度进行生态超载分析时采用国家公顷法和国家平均产量更符合实际状况。     

旅游还是游憩?我国国家公园的公众利用表述方式反思

自国家公园试点工作推行以来,有关国家公园到底能不能开展旅游活动以及开展什么样的旅游活动,到底是旅游活动还是游憩活动的争议从未停止。在分析“旅游”和“游憩”内涵的基础上,结合国外在国家公园利用方式的相应表述,根据我国建设国家公园的基本国情,对我国国家公园建设中的“游憩”与“旅游”问题进行了讨论。结论认为：国家公园内的“游憩”与“旅游”实际上是一体两面,在公园的功能定位与分区规划中,使用“游憩”一词比较合适,以体现国家公园的公益性目标。但在国家公园的具体运营管理中,使用“生态旅游”一词进行表述更恰当。在谈及旅游与国家公园的矛盾时,使用“旅游开发”更符合事实。     

美国国家公园路百年发展历程及借鉴

国家公园路是美国国家公园的重要组成部分,道路与国家公园融为一体,是国家公园的特色和品牌形象。国家公园路不仅是国家公园的重要交通方式,其本身就是旅游吸引物和旅游目的地。对于游客来说,在国家公园路上行驶就是游览国家公园。国家公园路的发展体现了道路工程与美学、哲学、游憩、生态等多学科的融合,促进了道路从单一交通功能向游憩、景观、文化和保护等复合功能转变,突出地展示了绚丽的景观和充满想象的工程线形,也展示了在保护无价的自然和文化资源的同时如何提供多元化的游憩机会,以实现环境保护与游客公众之间的平衡。本文从相关概念、发展背景、建设理念、发展举措、管理体制、资金资助、建设实践等方面,对百余年来美国国家公园路的发展历程进行了深入解析,对发展经验启示进行总结,以期从本质上去把握国家公园路发展规律,并由此提出了中国国家公园路发展之借鉴。这些研究对于蓬勃发展的中国国家公园、国家公园路,以及旅游风景道及旅游公路来说,都具有十分重要的理论价值与实践意义。     

红色旅游资源地游客国家认同的影响因素与多元路径研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析

红色旅游资源及其开发具有个体和群体意义,是国家认同实现的重要途径。采用多变量交互作用的模糊集定性比较分析方法,以游客国家认同为结果变量,构建社会记忆（人物记忆、环境记忆、时间记忆、空间记忆）、景区形象（吸引物形象、设施环境形象、文创宣传形象）、旅游体验、感知价值为前因变量,探索影响国家认同的前因条件组合与多元路径。研究结果表明：（1）对于单项因素来说,虽然人物记忆的一致性相对较高,但所有单因素都无法构成国家认同的充要条件。（2）9个变量共产生512种条件组合,满足条件的路径组合共11条,总体覆盖率为0.8916,构成了空间环境模式、形象价值模式、历史体验模式和时间综合模式四大类路径模式。（3）人物记忆出现在所有路径组合中,且所有组合同时包含至少一个社会记忆下的其他的二级维度,例如环境、时间或空间记忆。当社会记忆的四个二级维度全部出现时,产生了原始覆盖率最高的路径组合。（4）在原始覆盖率大于20%的6条路径中,都同时包含社会记忆和景区形象中的二级要素;在原始覆盖率小于20%的5条路径中,皆“一定不包含”设施环境形象。本文为红色旅游目的地在新格局下的高质量发展提供了理论参照。     

国家安全视角下的我国西部国土空间规划:体系完善与基本导向

当前,我国国土空间规划自上而下试图从宏观层面尽可能解决或缓解自改革开放以来所面临的生态环境问题、资源约束、人地关系冲突、多头管理、规划权威性等关键问题。我国国土规划的体系、架构和技术条例等迄今已形成相对科学合理的“共性”规范,但在战略层面讨论面向未来国家安全背景下的地域“个性”问题仍较缺乏。面对国家需求和西部特殊情境,应考虑建立基于国家安全考量的跨省区、跨流域的西部国土空间规划。在战略层面,为保障国家安全,此规划应着重考虑：（1）理论上,基于国家安全视角应建立跨省区、跨流域的西部国土空间规划体系;（2）实践中,建议制定西部空间尺度的以生态区、自然保护区为核心的“西部国土空间规划—生态安全”专项规划,以边境线、支撑线为规划脉络的“西部国土空间规划—生存安全”专项规划（或在规划中明确“国防安全细则”）,依托主要交通线以城镇体系为组织脉络的“西部国土空间规划—生活安全”专项规划（或在规划中明确“西部和谐社会建设细则”）,遵循主体功能区且以区域性中心城市、城市群等为中心的“西部国土空间规划—生产安全”专项规划（或“西部经济高质量发展规划”）,重构生态空间、生存空间、生活空间、生产空间;（3）特别建议强化边疆城镇/村寨建设,设立新时代“大三线建设”——西部“环青藏高原重点建设带”,以应对后疫情时期有限全球化和“双循环”现实的可能的国家安全需求。整体上,西部情境特殊,其国土空间规划与东中部应有差异,切忌一刀切。     

Contaminants of Emerging Concern in Fish from Western U.S. and Alaskan National Parks — Spatial Distribution and Health Thresholds

Remote national parks of the western U.S. and Alaska are not immune to contaminants of emerging concern. Semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) such as pesticides and PCBs can selectively deposit from the atmosphere at higher rates in cold, high‐elevation and high‐latitude sites, potentially increasing risk to these ecosystems. In the environment, SOCs magnify up food chains and are known to increase health risks such as cancer and reproductive impairment. One hundred twenty‐eight fish in 8 national parks in Alaska and the western U.S. were analyzed for contaminant concentrations, assessed by region, and compared to human and wildlife health thresholds. SOC concentrations from an additional 133 fish from a previous study were also included, for a total of 31 water bodies sampled. PCBs, endosulfan sulfate, and p,p′‐DDE were among the most frequently detected contaminants. Concentrations of historic‐use pesticides dieldrin, p,p′‐DDE, and/or chlordanes in fish exceeded USEPA guidelines for human subsistence fish consumers and wildlife (kingfisher) health thresholds at 13 of 14 parks. Average concentrations in fish ranged from 0.6‐280 ng/g lipid (0.02‐7.3 μg/g ww). Contaminant loading was highest in fish from Alaskan and Sierra Nevada parks. Historic compounds were highest in Alaskan parks, while current‐use pesticides were higher in the Rockies and Sierra Nevada. This study provides a rigorous analysis of CECs in fish from national parks and identifies regions at potential risk.     

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.     

Improving collaboration in the implementation of global biodiversity conventions

Eight conventions make up the biodiversity cluster of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) that provide the critical international legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of nature. However, concerns about the rate of implementation of the conventions at the national level have triggered discussions about the effectiveness of these MEAs in halting the loss of biodiversity. Two main concerns have emerged: lack of capacity and resources and lack of coherence in implementing multiple conventions. We focused on the latter and considered the mechanisms by which international conventions are translated into national policy. Specifically, we examined how the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 and the associated Aichi Biodiversity Targets have functioned as a unifying grand plan for biodiversity conservation. This strategic plan has been used to coordinate and align targets to promote and enable more effective implementation across all biodiversity-related conventions. Results of a survey of 139 key stakeholders from 88 countries suggests streamlining across ministries and agencies, improved coordination mechanisms with all relevant stakeholders, and better knowledge sharing between conventions could improve cooperation among biodiversity-related conventions. The roadmap for improving synergies among conventions agreed to at the 13th Convention on Biological Diversity's Conference of Parties in 2016 includes actions such as mechanisms to avoid duplication in national reporting and monitoring on conventions and capacity building related to information and knowledge sharing. We suggest the scientific community can actively engage and contribute to the policy process by establishing a science-policy platform to address knowledge gaps; improving data gathering, reporting, and monitoring; developing indicators that adequately support implementation of national plans and strategies; and providing evidence-based recommendations to policy makers. The latter will be particularly important as 2020 approaches and work to develop a new biodiversity agenda for the next decade is beginning.     

国家海洋公园选址研究——以大连长山群岛为例

借鉴国际相关理论研究及实践成果,以大连长山群岛为例,在综合考虑区域生态、经济、社会等因素的基础上,借助GIS空间分析技术,通过影响因子、空间结构、适宜性等多方面综合分析国家海洋公园的选址位置、范围大小及功能分区。结果表明,公园核心区的最优地址为乌蟒岛菜坨子,面积约为1 689.25 km²,结合长山群岛的自然特征,充分考虑海洋生物的分布状况、繁殖、生长规律,以及有利于生态保护与科研教育,并减少对当地生产影响等因素,将公园划分为:核心区、缓冲区、实验区、游憩区以及一般利用区等5个功能区,并提出了相应的功能分区目的及功能。