河流水质1号模型探讨

介绍了河流水质模型70年来的发展历程和目前存在的不足之处,论述了河流水质1号模型(RwQM1)的研究成果.河流水质1号模型从活性污泥模型ASM中发展而来,并推出了建立模型的决策化方法,其对生化反应模型的完善而成为河流水质模型发展的一个标准平台.本文重点介绍了其在生化反应模型方面的进展,并和QUAL2E做了比较.     

水环境非点源污染模型研究

随着工业污染源的有效控制,非点源污染已经成为我国重要污染类型之一,如何科学地认识并有效控制非点源污染已成为研究课题.在此介绍了非点源的基础工具--非点源模型的主要类型、结构和特点,并对目前主要的非点源模型进行了比较分析,探讨了非点源模型发展的趋势.     

Conserving Slow-Growing, Long-Lived Tree Species: Input from the Demography of a Rare Understory Conifer, Taxus floridana

Abstract:  Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates.     

Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.     

Development and verification of a screening model for surface spreading of petroleum

Overflows and leakage from aboveground storage tanks and pipelines carrying crude oil and petroleum products occur frequently. The spilled hydrocarbons pose environmental threats by contaminating the surrounding soil and the underlying ground water. Predicting the fate and transport of these chemicals is required for environmental risk assessment and for remedial measure design. The present paper discusses the formulation and application of the Oil Surface Flow Screening Model (OILSFSM) for predicting the surface flow of oil by taking into account infiltration and evaporation. Surface flow is simulated using a semi-analytical model based on the lubrication theory approximation of viscous flow. Infiltration is simulated using a version of the Green and Ampt infiltration model, which is modified to account for oil properties. Evaporation of volatile compounds is simulated using a compositional model that accounts for the changes in the fraction of each compound in the spilled oil. The coupling between surface flow, infiltration and evaporation is achieved by incorporating the infiltration and evaporation fluxes into the global continuity equation of the spilled oil. The model was verified against numerical models for infiltration and analytical models for surface flow. The verification study demonstrates the applicability of the model.     

Simultaneous estimation of effective and apparent diffusion coefficients in compacted bentonite

Effective diffusion coefficients (D(e)) are usually measured by means of "through-diffusion" experiments in which steady state is reached, and the "time-lag" methods are used to estimate the apparent diffusion coefficient (D(a)). For sorbing radionuclides (as caesium), the time needed to reach steady-state conditions is very large, and the precision in D(a) determinations is not satisfactory. In this paper, a method that allows determining simultaneously effective and apparent diffusion coefficients in compacted bentonite without reaching steady-state conditions is described. Basically, this method consists of an "in-diffusion" experiment in which the concentration profile in the bentonite sample is used to estimate D(a), and the temporal evolution of the solute concentration in the reservoir is used to estimate D(e). This method has several advantages over the typical "through-diffusion" experiments, in particular: (a) experiment duration is significantly shorter, (b) D(a) values are measured with greater precision and (c) it is not necessary to maintain a constant solute concentration in the reservoir. This new method has been used to estimate the effective and apparent diffusion coefficients for caesium in FEBEX bentonite and in order to validate it, the results have been compared with results previously obtained with standard methods. Experimental results have been satisfactorily modelled using a simple model of diffusion in porewater and the measured value of D(e)(Cs) is very similar to D(e)(HTO) in the same bentonite. There is no evidence of "surface diffusion" in FEBEX bentonite for caesium.     

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire

Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling framework for simulating regional-scale smoke dispersion. We focus on a representative fire season (2003) in the northwestern USA, on a 12 km domain, and track the simulated dispersion and concentration of PM_2.5 over the course of the season. Simulated visibility reductions over national parks and wilderness areas are within the ranges of measured values at selected monitoring sites, although the magnitudes of peak events are underestimated because these include inputs other than fire. By linking the spatial and temporal patterns of haze-producing emissions to climatic variability, particularly synoptic weather patterns, and the stochastic nature of fire occurrence across the region, we can provide a robust method for estimating the quantity and distribution of fire-caused regional haze under climate-warming scenarios.     

Empirical Bayes calculations of concordance between endpoints in environmental toxicity experiments

Hierarchical models are considered for estimating the probability of agreement between two outcomes or endpoints from an environmental toxicity experiment. Emphasis is placed on generalized regression models, under which the prior mean is related to a linear combination of explanatory variables via a monotone function. This function defines the scale over which the systematic effects are modelled as additive. Specific illustration is provided for the logistic link function. The hierarchical model employs a conjugate beta prior that leads to parametric empirical Bayes estimators of the individual agreement parameters. An example from environmental carcinogenesis illustrates the methods, with motivation derived from estimation of the concordance between two species carcinogenicity outcomes. Based on a large database of carcinogenicity studies, the inter-species concordance is seen to be reasonably informative, i.e. in the range 67–84%. Stratification into pertinent potency-related sub-groups via the logistic model is seen to improve concordance estimation: for environmental stimuli at the extremes of the potency spectrum, concordance can reach well above 90%.     

A field test of the Hamilton–Zuk hypothesis in the Trinidadian guppy (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Poecilia reticulata</Emphasis>)

The Hamilton–Zuk hypothesis proposes that females prefer male secondary sexual traits because they are honest indicators of parasite resistance. Despite the attention that this hypothesis has received, its role in sexual selection remains equivocal. This study presents the first field test in guppies of two key predictions of the Hamilton–Zuk hypothesis: (1) that within populations, the most highly ornamented males have the fewest parasites and (2) that among populations, males in high parasite populations have the most conspicuous ornaments. Five hundred male guppies from 19 distinct populations in the Northern Range of Trinidad were inspected for Gyrodactylus parasites and photographed. Eight measures of orange spot ornamentation were used to test the predictions: hue, saturation, lightness, relative area, number, and area-weighted hue, saturation, and lightness. Parasite load had no significant effect on any of these measures. There was also no relationship between orange spot ornamentation and parasite abundance among populations. Guppies from high-predation environments had significantly more parasites, and their orange coloration was lighter and less saturated than that in guppies from low-predation environments. Despite previous lab results, this study found no relationship between parasite load and male orange spot ornamentation.     

火炬松浆材建筑材林经营模型系统的研究

根据火炬松样地资料，建立火炬松林分生长模型、结构模型、商品材产量预估模型、营林措施(含间伐、施肥、整地、抚育等)效应模型及营林效益评估模型，构成火炬松纸浆材与建筑材林经营的模型系统，为火炬松纸浆材与建筑材林定向培育和优化决策提供了系列模型．