Protected Areas and Prospects for Endangered Species Conservation in Canada

Abstract:  Reserve networks figure prominently in conservation strategies that aim to reduce extinction rates. We tested the effectiveness of the current reserve network at protecting species at risk in Canada, where relatively extensive wilderness areas remain. We compared numbers of terrestrial species at risk included in existing reserves to randomly generated networks with the same total area and number of reserves. Existing reserve networks rarely performed better than randomly selected areas and several included fewer endangered species than expected by chance, particularly in the most biologically imperiled regions. The extent of protected area and density of species at risk were unrelated at either broad (countrywide) or finer spatial scales (50 × 50 km grids), although there was a tendency for the most threatened regions of the country to have few or no protected areas (1.5% of areas with >30 endangered species were in reserves). Although reserves will play a useful role in conserving endangered species that occur within them, reducing extinction rates in a region with much of the world's remaining wilderness will require integrating conservation strategies with agricultural and urban land-use plans outside formally protected areas.     

Use of genetic algorithms to select input variables in decision tree models for the prediction of benthic macroinvertebrates

Predicting freshwater organisms based on machine learning is becoming more and more reliable due to the availability of appropriate datasets, advanced modelling techniques and the continuously increasing capacity of computers. A database consisting of measurements collected at 360 sampling sites in non-navigable watercourses in Flanders was applied to predict the absence/presence of benthic macroinvertebrate taxa by means of decision trees. The measured variables were a combination of physical–chemical (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, conductivity, total organic carbon, Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus), structural (granulometric analysis of the sediment, width, depth and flow velocity of the river) and two ecotoxicological variables. The predictive power of decision trees was assessed on the basis of the number of Correctly Classified Instances (CCI). A genetic algorithm was introduced to compare the predictive power of different sets of input variables for the decision trees. The number of input variables was reduced from 15 to 2–8 variables without affecting the predictive power of the decision trees significantly. Furthermore, reducing the number of input variables allowed to ease the identification of general data trends.     

Impacts of Livestock Grazing and Tree Clearing on Birds of Woodland and Riparian Habitats

Abstract:  We investigated the impact of pastoral management on birds in subtropical grassy eucalypt woodland in southeastern Queensland, Australia, where the patterns of land management have made it possible to disentangle the effects of livestock grazing from those of tree clearing. We recorded changes in bird species composition, density, and relative abundance across two woodland habitat types (riparian and nonriparian) and two levels of clearing (wooded and nonwooded) and three levels of livestock grazing (low, moderate, and high) replicated over space (1000 km²) and time (2001–2002). We predicted that species that depend on understory vegetation would be most negatively affected by livestock grazing. A Bayesian generalized linear model showed that the level of grazing had the greatest effect when trees were present. When trees were absent, the impact of grazing was overshadowed by the effects of a lack of trees. Over 65% of species responded to different levels of grazing, and the abundance of 42% of species varied markedly with habitat and grazing. The most common response to grazing was high species relative abundance under low levels of grazing (28% of species), species absence at high levels of grazing (20%), and an increase in abundance with increasing grazing (18%). Despite having similar bird assemblages, the effect of grazing was stronger in riparian habitat than in adjacent woodland habitat. Our results suggest that any level of commercial livestock grazing is detrimental to some woodland birds, particularly the understory-dependant species, as predicted. Nevertheless, provided trees are not cleared, a rich and abundant bird fauna can coexist with moderate levels of grazing. Habitats with high levels of grazing, on the other hand, resulted in a species-poor bird assemblage dominated by birds that are increasing in abundance nationally .     

Viability Analysis of Reef Fish Populations Based on Limited Demographic Information

Abstract:  Marine protected areas (MPAs) that allow some degree of artisanal fishing have been proposed to control the overexploitation of marine resources while allowing extraction by local communities. Nevertheless, the management of MPAs is often impaired by the absence of data on the status of their resources. We devised a method to estimate population growth rates with the type of data that are usually available for reef fishes. We used 7 years of spatially explicit abundance data on the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in an MPA in the Gulf of California, Mexico, to construct a matrix population model that incorporated the effects of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation on population dynamics. An environmental model that estimated different demographic estimates for El Niño and La Niña periods performed better than a single-environment model, and a single-habitat model performed better than a model that considered different depths as different habitats. Our results suggest that the population of the leopard grouper off the main island of the MPA is not viable under present conditions. Although the impact of fishing on leopard grouper populations in the MPA has not yet been established, fishing should be closed as a precautionary measure at this island if a priority of the MPA is to ensure the sustainability of its fish populations.     

Subgrid-Scale Modeling of Reacting Scalar Fluxes in Large-Eddy Simulations of Atmospheric Boundary Layers

In large-eddy simulations of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence, the lumped coefficient in the eddy-diffusion subgrid-scale (SGS) model is known to depend on scale for the case of inert scalars. This scale dependence is predominant near the surface. In this paper, a scale-dependent dynamic SGS model for the turbulent transport of reacting scalars is implemented in large-eddy simulations of a neutral boundary layer. Since the model coefficient is computed dynamically from the dynamics of the resolved scales, the simulations are free from any parameter tuning. A set of chemical cases representative of various turbulent reacting flow regimes is examined. The reactants are involved in a first-order reaction and are injected in the atmospheric boundary layer with a constant and uniform surface flux. Emphasis is placed on studying the combined effects of resolution and chemical regime on the performance of the SGS model. Simulations with the scale-dependent dynamic model yield the expected trends of the coefficients as function of resolution, position in the flow and chemical regime, leading to resolution-independent turbulent reactant fluxes.     

Automatic construction of concept hierarchies: The case of foliage-dwelling spiders

In this paper, we present the hierarchical variable dependencies that were obtained from raw data with the use of two machine learning techniques on an ecological data set. The data set contains features of field margins and the corresponding number of spider species inhabiting them. This data set was used before by domain experts to construct a fuzzy qualitative model with hierarchical variable dependencies, which we use for comparison with our results. One of the machine learning methods constructs a hierarchical structure similar to the one in the experts’ model, while revealing some additional interesting relations of environmental features with respect to the number of spider species. The other method constructs a different hierarchy from the one proposed by the experts, which, according to our classification performance experiments, might be even more appropriate.     

Regional Consequences of Local Population Demography and Genetics in Relation to Habitat Management in Gentiana pneumonanthe

Abstract:  A joint demographic and population genetics stage-based model for a subdivided population was applied to Gentiana pneumonanthe , an early successional perennial herb, at a regional (metapopulation) scale. We used numerical simulations to determine the optimal frequency of habitat disturbance (sod cutting) and the intensity of gene flow among populations of G. pneumonanthe to manage both population viability and genetic diversity in this species. The simulations showed that even small populations that initially had near-equal allele frequencies could, if managed properly through sod cutting every 6 to 7 years, sustain their high genetic variation over the long run without gene flow. The more the allele frequencies in the small populations are skewed, however, the higher the probability that in the absence of gene flow, some alleles will be lost and within-population genetic variation will decrease even under proper management. This implies that although local population dynamics should be the major target for management, regional dynamics become important when habitat fragmentation and decreased population size lead to the loss of local genetic diversity. The recommended strategy to improve genetic composition of small populations is the introduction of seeds or seedlings of nonlocal origin.     

整合分析中的非参数检验:重复取样检验法的实例应用

整合分析(meta-analysis)是对同一主题下多个独立实验结果进行综合的统计学方法。非参数检验整合分析——重复取样检验(resampling test)不考虑原文献数据的分布形式，故可在不知原文献数据分布形式时使用。其中的靴襻法(bootstrap)可用来给出总效应值的置信区间，但不能检验组内异质性是否显著。靴襻法与随机检验法(randomization test)可以有效弥补这一缺失，判断出组间差异性是否显著。实例应用表明，重复取样检验没有参数检验保守，又与参数检验的结果差异较小。