Deforestation in the drylands of Africa: Quantitative modelling approach

This paper has developed a two-sector model of forestry that gives some insights into the interactions of poverty, land tenure insecurity, economic growth, trade and deforestation in the context of the drylands of Africa. Externally, the model results show that the world demand for non-timber forestry products can lead to a win-win situation whereby both trade and environmental sustainability can be promoted. Monopolistic measures to control the supply of these products, for short-term price gains, are harmful economically and environmentally. By contrast, productivity-raising measures have a favourable impact on both the economy and the environment. Internally, the model results show that the growth of the rest of the economy has driven the economic growth of the forestry sector, but at the same time, its environmental degradation. Poverty and land tenure insecurity also contribute to this degradation. Fortunately, policies promoting basic needs satisfaction and property rights security are shown to be effective in mitigating environmental degradation in the forestry sector. The paper results contribute towards a more sustainable exploitation of forestry.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

USE OF TOPOLOGICAL INFORMATION IN HYDROGRAPH ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Discharge hydrographs computed from the theory of linear flow through topologically random channel networks are compared to actual discharge hydrographs for basins in semiarid regions of central Wyoming. The basins drained by the channel networks range in size from 0.69 to 10.8 square miles. Topological information consisting of stream-network magnitude and link -length distribution parameters are used in calibrating celerity values that ensure that the peak discharge and excess rainfall volume of the resulting computed hydrographs match the peak discharge and excess-rainfall volume of the actual hydrographs. Results indicate that, for a given peak discharge and excess-rainfall volume in a basin, the sensitivity of the calibrated celerity values to excess-rainfall duration is small if the ratio of excess-rainfall volume to peak discharge is at least 1.75 times the excess-rainfall duration.     

Predicting Future Threats to the Native Vegetation of Robinson Crusoe Island, Juan Fernandez Archipelago, Chile

Abstract:   The Juan Fernandez Archipelago, a Chilean national park and biosphere reserve, is 700 km west of continental Chile. Invasive plant species pose major threats to the native, highly endemic vegetation, especially on Robinson Crusoe Island (Mas a Tierra), where there is a permanent settlement. We used historical and recent vegetation map data as well as recent vegetational point data to reconstruct vegetational changes on the island since the early twentieth century. In addition, we used logistic regression models with environmental variables or their surrogates (elevation, solar radiation, topographic similarity index, slope position) to estimate the potential distributions of the worst invaders. Native vegetation has been affected most severely by Acaena argentea , Aristotelia chilensis , Rubus ulmifolius , and Ugni molinae , leading to a significant decrease of endemic plants in the montane forests and native shrublands. The native forest has decreased by approximately one-third. The area affected by Aristotelia chilensis increased from 6.5% to 14% of the total island area. Ugni molinae , once rare, is now abundant (4.6%), as is Acaena (11.9%). Rubus ulmifolius , not present 80 years ago, now covers about 7% of the island's surface. The distributions of all studied species except Rubus ulmifolius are significantly ( p < 0.05) controlled by the environmental factors we examined. Inferring from potential distributions of Aristotelia chilensis and Ugni molinae , 50% of the native montane forest could be invaded or replaced (with a probability of >60%) by these plants. Based on the invasion speed of the past 80 years, this would take another 80 years if conservation measures do not succeed.     

基于ICRP生物动力学模型的贫铀辐射危险估计算法

针对线性年龄相关剂量学程序PLEIADES （ Program for Linear Age - dependent Dosimetry）计算贫铀辐射危险存在的影响因素较多、系数不确定性大、使用不便的问题,基于ICRP生物动力学模型,采用美国原子管理委员会编制的放射性物质工具箱中提供的典型条件下铀的各同位素剂量转换系数,分析了不同背景下剂量的影响因素,给出了贫铀的辐射危险概率的简化计算方法,并同PLEIADES的结果相比较。分析表明两者结果吻合较好,该方法原理简单,使用方便,适合于对贫铀辐射危险的估算。     

云模型在城镇空气质量评价中的应用

空气质量评价是当前城镇环境评价的一个重要环节,这一过程存在着很强的模糊性和随机性。云模型把模糊性和随机性完全集成,构成定性与定量之间的映射。文章将云模型引入空气质量评价,结合空气质量评价标准,建立了云模型空气质量评价方法,并通过对比验证了该方法的有效性。     

Assessing regulatory effectiveness with exogenously declining risk: a case study of the CPSC's 1973 mattress standard

INTRODUCTION: This paper examines the contribution of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission's (CPSC) 1973 cigarette ignition mattress flammability standard to reduce mattress fires since 1980, when the U.S. Fire Administration's National Fire Incident Reporting System became fully operational. METHOD: The paper attempts to separate the effect of the cigarette ignition standard from the declining trend in mattress fires that would have resulted without the standard. We analyze the impact of the 1973 cigarette standard on smoking material ignition fires, deaths, and injuries as well as its effect on fires, deaths, and injuries from all ignition sources (smoking material ignitions, open-flame ignitions, and other ignition sources). Impacts on Industry: The results suggest that the 1973 mattress standard has effectively reduced the mattress fire risk and that further reductions in risk via actions tied specifically to cigarette ignition are likely to be difficult to achieve.     

基于蝴蝶型突变理论的安全生产保障系统分析和探讨

利用突变理论探讨事故致因模型,揭示事故致因的基本要素及其内在联系,对构成的要素进行抽象化,将对众多复杂企业的不安全因素进一步归纳为"人-机-环境-管理"安全生产保障系统,分析建立该系统的必要性,在突变理论的蝴蝶型与该系统结合性的基础上,探讨和建立安全决策和安全对策模型,将企业的安全生产危险程度分为理想的安全区域、危险区域、相对的安全区域。提出了危险程度和安全状况改进的数学模型,蝴蝶型突变理论能够揭示企业的安全状况。     

中国西部地区生态扶贫策略研究

西部地区是我国贫困面最大、贫困程度最深的地区,同时也是生态环境最脆弱的地区.改革开放以来,虽然西部地区社会经济发展水平得到了一定的提高,但与东中部地区的收入差距却在不断的扩大.同时,随着全国贫困人口绝对规模的减少,贫困人口的分布进一步向西部地区集中,生态环境在诸多致贫因素中越来越突出.文章从西部贫困地区与生态脆弱区和重要生态功能区空间分布的关联性以及地区贫困对生态环境的影响等方面深入解析了西部地区贫困和生态环境互为因果的耦合机理;分析了当前西部地区扶贫开发面临的生态环境、资金、人力资本、管理体制等方面的严峻挑战;提出了生态扶贫的概念和基本内涵,即:生态建设与扶贫开发同步进行,生态恢复与脱贫致富相互协调;设计了原地扶贫和离地扶贫两大生态扶贫模式,并提出了不同生态扶贫模式的特点、实施范围和基本内容.原地扶贫通过创造生态管护就业岗位,发展当地特色生态绿色产业体系,实现贫困人口在当地就业,增加贫困人口的收入.同时,通过拓展整村推进和本地教育工程,改善贫困地区生产、生活条件,提高贫困人口稳定脱贫能力.离地扶贫则以生态移民为主,并结合城镇化战略,引导贫困地区劳动力向城镇和东部沿海地区转移,通过异地就业、生活实现脱贫.最后,提出了实施生态扶贫战略的相关政策建议,包括以教育为核心的人力资本开发,以特色农副产品开发、特色生态旅游和绿色品牌建设为核心的特色优势产业发展,以及以生态移民制度和政府管理体制为核心的制度建设创新等.