Accident modelling and analysis in process industries

Accident modelling is a methodology used to relate the causes and effects of events that lead to accidents. This modelling effectively seeks to answer two main questions: (i) Why does an accident occur, and (ii) How does it occur. This paper presents a review of accident models that have been developed for the chemical process industry with in-depth analyses of a class of models known as dynamic sequential accident models (DSAMs). DSAMs are sequential models with a systematic procedure to utilise precursor data to estimate the posterior risk profile quantitatively. DSAM also offers updates on the failure probabilities of accident barriers and the prediction of future end states. Following a close scrutiny of these methodologies, several limitations are noted and discussed, and based on these insights, future work is suggested to enhance and improve this category of models further.     

Modelling fertility: an application of count regression models

Often the lifecycle data occur as count of the vital events and are recorded as integers. The purpose of this article is to model the fertility behavior based on religious, educational, economic, and occupational characteristics. The responses of classified groups according to these determinants are examined for significant influence on fertility using Poisson regression model (PRM) based on the National Family Health Survey -3 dataset. The observed and predicted probabilities under PRM indicate modal value of two children for the Poisson distribution modeled data. Presence of dominance of two child in the data motivates the authors to adopt multinomial regression model (MRM) in order to link fertility with various socioeconomic indicators responsible for fertility variation. Choice of the explanatory factors is limited to the availability of data. Trends and patterns of preference for birth counts suggest that religion, caste, wealth, female education, and occupation are the dominant factors shaping the observed birth process. Empirical analysis suggests that both the models used in the study perform similarly on the sample data. However, fitting of MRM by taking birth count of two as comparison category shows improved Akaike information criterion and consistent Akaike information criterion values. Current work contributes to the existing literature as it attempts to provide more insight into the determinants of Indian fertility using Poisson and MRM.     

The influences of climate and hydrology on population dynamics of waterbirds in the lower Murrumbidgee River floodplains in Southeast Australia: Implications for environmental water management

Restoration of waterbird diversity and abundance is a key objective of river system management in Australia. Therefore, understanding the effects of climatic and hydrological variables on waterbird population dynamics is fundamental for successful river restoration programs. We investigated the population dynamics of waterbirds (total abundance) and seven functional waterbird groups in the floodplains of lower Murrumbidgee River. We found a general declining abundance trend from 1983 to 2007, except for the deep water foragers. We modelled the relative contribution of the climatic and hydrological factors to waterbird population decrease using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework after identifying the negative binomial distribution. Most of the seven functional groups were positively related to both annual rainfall and water usage, defined as the total water volume intercepted by the river reach, and the models indicated that rainfall was slightly more important. Temperature also played a role in waterbird abundance: the maximum summer temperature negatively influenced the abundance of dabbling ducks, shoreline foragers and fish eaters, while the minimum winter temperature positively affected the abundance of dabbling ducks and shoreline foragers. Overall, our results support the practice of providing environmental water for sustaining waterbird populations. However, environmental water provision is likely to be most effective when timed to coincide with antecedent rainfall.     

Common challenges for ecological modelling: Synthesis of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada, (October 6-9, 2009)

The eleven symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) held in Quebec City, Canada, October 6-9, 2009, included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three broad categories: theoretical development, population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Following discussions with the symposia organizers, which indicated that they all shared similar issues and concerns, the facilitated discussions were task-oriented around four basic questions: (1) key challenges in the research area, (2) generating and sharing new ideas, (3) improving collaboration and networking, and (4) increasing visibility to decision-makers, partners and clients. Common challenges that emerged from the symposia included the need for improved communication and collaboration among different academic disciplines, further progress in both theoretical and practical modelling approaches, and accentuation of technology transfer. Regarding the generation and sharing of new ideas, the main issue that emerged was the type of positive interactions that should be encouraged among potential collaborators. The usefulness of the Internet, particularly for the sharing of open-source software and conducting discussion forums, was highlighted for improving collaboration and networking. Several communication tools are available today, and it is important for modellers to use them more intensively. Visibility can be increased by publishing professional newsletters, maintaining informal contacts with the public, organizing educational sessions in primary and secondary schools, and developing simplified analytical frameworks and pilot studies. Specific issues raised in each symposium are also discussed.     

Optimizing conservation in species-specific agricultural landscapes

Recovery of grassland birds in agricultural landscapes is a global imperative. Agricultural landscapes are complex, and the value of resource patches may vary substantially among species. The spatial extent at which landscape features affect populations (i.e., scale of effect) may also differ among species. There is a need for regional-scale conservation planning that considers landscape-scale and species-specific responses of grassland birds to environmental change. We developed a spatially explicit approach to optimizing grassland conservation in the context of species-specific landscapes and prioritization of species recovery and applied it to a conservation program in Kentucky (USA). We used a hierarchical distance-sampling model with an embedded scale of effect predictor to estimate the relationship between landscape structure and abundance of eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna), field sparrows (Spizella pusilla), and northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). We used a novel spatially explicit optimization procedure rooted in multi-attribute utility theory to design alternative conservation strategies (e.g., prioritize only northern bobwhite recovery or assign equal weight to each species’ recovery). Eastern meadowlarks and field sparrows were more likely to respond to landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies than landscape-scale patch densities. Northern bobwhite responded to both landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies and densities and responded strongly to increased grassland density. Effects of landscape features on local abundance decreased as distance increased and had negligible influence at 0.8 km for eastern meadowlarks (0.7–1.2 km 95% Bayesian credibility intervals [BCI]), 2.5 km for field sparrows (1.5–5.8 km 95% BCI), and 8.4 km for bobwhite (6.4–26 km 95% BCI). Northern bobwhites were predicted to benefit greatly from future grassland conservation regardless of conservation priorities, but eastern meadowlark and field sparrow were not. Our results suggest similar species can respond differently to broad-scale conservation practices because of species-specific, distance-dependent relationships with landscape structure. Our framework is quantitative, conceptually simple, customizable, and predictive and can be used to optimize conservation in heterogeneous ecosystems while considering landscape-scale processes and explicit prioritization of species recovery.     

A simple spatially explicit ideal-free distribution: a model and an experiment

This investigation presents a simple spatially explicit analysis of the ideal-free distribution. The traditional ideal-free distribution assumes discrete sites with definite boundaries, and predicts how many individuals should occupy each site. In contrast, the present analysis assumes that a forager’s gains gradually decline with distance from a site, and asks where in space individuals ought to be. Although many interesting situations may arise, the analysis asks how individuals should position themselves as the distance between two identical sources increases. Nash equilibrium positions should follow a pitchfork pattern as the distance between sites is increased; that is, an individual should maintain a position between two sources when they are close together but should move nearer one of the sources when they are far apart. In addition, the text describes an experimental study that parallels the theoretical analysis. The experiment supports the predicted pitchfork pattern, and provides somewhat weaker support for the predicted differences in ”individual” and ”paired” pitchforks. Received: 14 June 2000 / Revised: 20 September 2000 / Accepted: 7 October 2000     

EFFECTS OF IRRIGATION ON WATER QUALITY OF A SHALLOW UNCONFINED AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The ground water quality of a shallow unconfined aquifer was monitored before and after implementation of a border strip irrigation scheme, by taking monthly samples from an array of 13 shallow wells. Two 30 m deep wells were sampled to obtain vertical concentration profiles. Marked vertical, temporal, and spatial variabilities were recorded. The monthly data were analyzed for step and linear trends using nonparametric tests that were adjusted for the effects of serial correlation. Average nitrate concentrations increased in the preirrigation period and decreased after irrigation began. This was attributed to wetter years in 1978–1979 than in 1976–1977 which increased leaching, and to disturbance of the topsoil during land contouring before irrigation, followed by excessive drainage after irrigation. Few significant trends were recorded for other determinants, possibly because of shorter data records. Nitrate, sulphate, and potassium concentrations decreased with depth, whereas sodium, calcium, bicarbonate, and chloride concentrations increased. These trends allowed an estimation to be made of the depth of ground water affected by percolating drainage. This depth increased during the irrigation season and after periods of winter recharge. Furthermore, an overall increase in the depth of drainage-affected ground water occurred with time, which paralleled the development of the irrigation scheme.     

SPNM,A MODEL FOR PREDICTING SEDIMENT,PHOSPHORUS, AND NITROGEN YIELDS FROM AGRICULTURAL BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A model called SPNM from the words “sediment-phosphorus-nitrogen model” was developed for simulating agricultural contributions to water pollution. SPNM is designed to predict sediment, P, and N yields for individual storms on small basins and to route these yields through streams and valleys of large basins. Users need no computer programming experience because the model is a problem-oriented computer language. SPNM is useful in planning water resources projects and in research. Tests of the model on a watershed provided realistic results.     

The use of computer models in planning upland land use

The British Ecological Society has suggested that computer‐based techniques could be used in the coordination of policies across different land uses in upland planning. This paper looks briefly at one such technique — a linear programming model — and describes its use at a regional scale for the Sedburgh area in north‐west England. The paper concludes with consideration of why such models are not in more common use.     

A SELF-VERIFYING HYBRID COMPUTER MODEL OF RIVER-BASIN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. As demands upon available water supplies increase, there is an accompanying increase in the need to assess the downstream consequences resulting from changes at specific locations within a hydrologic system. The problem is approached in this study by hybrid computer simulation of the hydrologic system. Modeling concepts are based upon the development of basic relationships which describe the various hydrologic processes. Within a system these relationships are linked by the continuity-of-mass principle. Spatial resolution is achieved by considering the modeled areas as a series of subbasins. The time increment adopted for the model is one month, so that time varying quantities are expressed in terms of mean monthly values. The model is general in nature and is applied to a particular hydrologic system through a programmed verification procedure whereby model coefficients are evaluated for the particular system. In this study the model is applied to the Bear River basin of western Wyoming, southern Idaho, and northern Utah. Comparisons between observed and computed outflow hydrographs show good agreement. The utility of the model is demonstrated by predicting the effects of various possible water resource management alternatives. The verified hybrid computer program can be digitized for application to the digital computer.