多层栽培制度在提高热带退化土壤生产潜力方面的作用和机制

针对老胶园普遍存在的严重土壤侵蚀、肥力下降、胶乳产量低等现象,本研究结合胶园更新布置了四种PEMLU模式。几年来的试验结果表明,PEMLU模式中的FEF模式比对照减少径流量66.7％,减少土壤冲刷量65.1％,有机质从原来的0.536％增加到1.34％。四种模式增加凋落物累积量83—288％,并促进了胶树生长,开割前年均每公顷可增产值2830—6650元。WRT模式具有较强的抗灾能力。本文用FWBG模型对四种PEMLU模式进行了定量分析。结果表明,FEF模式具有最优的综合效益。WRS模式具有投资少、效益高的特点,适于大面积推广。     

Quantifying sediment-associated metal dispersal using Pb isotopes: Application of binary and multivariate mixing models at the catchment-scale

In this study Pb isotope signatures were used to identify the provenance of contaminant metals and establish patterns of downstream sediment dispersal within the River Maritsa catchment, which is impacted by the mining of polymetallic ores. A two-fold modelling approach was undertaken to quantify sediment-associated metal delivery to the Maritsa catchment; employing binary mixing models in tributary systems and a composite fingerprinting and mixing model approach in the wider Maritsa catchment. Composite fingerprints were determined using Pb isotopic and multi-element geochemical data to characterize sediments delivered from tributary catchments. Application of a mixing model allowed a quantification of the percentage contribution of tributary catchments to the sediment load of the River Maritsa. Sediment delivery from tributaries directly affected by mining activity contributes 42-63% to the sediment load of the River Maritsa, with best-fit regression relationships indicating that sediments originating from mining-affected tributaries are being dispersed over 200 km downstream.     

Risk models for wildfowl diseases

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of computer models, including artificial intelligence systems, in the context of risk assessment and management for wildfowl diseases. In particular, the paper focuses on avian cholera and botulism in U.S. wildfowl, which are a source of continuing concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Severe outbreaks occur frequently, and some have been estimated to claim the lives of as many as 300 000 waterfowl. A potentially valuable support to the USFWS would be a set of models that assist in recognizing situations with high risk of an outbreak, assessing the anticipated severity of an outbreak, and advising on possible preventive measures. The USFWS has already initiated development of several potentially useful models. This paper reviews these as well as other related efforts, within the overall context of risk management for avian botulism and cholera.     

AN EXPERIMENT IN DETERMINISTIC WATERSHED MODELING1

An experimental three-dimensional finite-difference watershed model in the form of a Fortran IV program was constructed. The model was an oversimplified one which divided the watershed volume into layers of cells which represented the overland flow, the vadose, and the phreatic zones. Water budget equations which utilized such formulas as Darcy's law and Manning's equation were applied to each interior cell. The resulting set of simultaneous equations was solved for heads at the end of successive time increments. This information was transformed to streamflow and other hydrologic output. Input was weather data, which effected appropriate adjustments in the cells representing the surface-water and vadose zones. After testing the model, it was concluded that this type of model is undesirably sensitive to cell size and length of time increment. In spite of the deficiencies of this primitive model, this general kind of approach to modeling seems promising, but it may be necessary to devise new transport equations which apply to more natural divisions of watersheds.     

Lake Elsinore disaster: The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune

A case study of a flood which occurred at Lake Elsinore, California, February, 1980, focuses upon the assistance which the community received during both the flood and recovery periods. Relevant literature on disaster research is examined, including a model of disaster recovery, and the study places the events which occurred din Lake Elsinore within that recovery model. Implications for policy include the recommendation that decision-makers consider the pre-disaster growth of the community indecisions to support recovery assistance.     

USE AND MISUSE OF COMPLEX MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The power of computers has increased in recent decades, and one might expect improved management to result because decisions can be made with understanding available only via models. However, there is potential for quite the opposite: poor decisions due to unrealistic model output generated by users without access to appropriate training in the use of models. We discuss and, by reference to water demand models (IWR-MAIN, MWD-MAIN), illustrate three areas in which unintended errors of judgment by untrained personnel may cause difficulty:

• * Attributes of management models; if output from any type of model has no measure of confidence, then results may be over- or undervalued
• * Input data; with complex models, problems here typically will be difficult to detect.
• * Calibration and history-matching (verification); if these steps or data are combined, then users should be less trustful of model output than otherwise.

Because all models have weaknesses and because there always is uncertainty about output from any model, we end with suggestions for coping with complex models. Monitoring programs play a central role in such efforts because they can identify discrepancies between model predictions and actual events and because they can ensure time is available to develop solutions for problems unanticipated in the modeling effort.     

Prediction of lichen diversity in an UNESCO biosphere reserve – correlation of high resolution remote sensing data with field samples

The present study focuses on developing models to predict lichen species richness in a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of the Swiss Pre-Alps following a gradient of land-use intensity combining remote sensing data and regression models. The predictive power of the models and the obtained r ranging from 0.5 for lichens on soil to 0.8 for lichens on trees can be regarded as satisfactory to good, respectively. The study revealed that a combination of airborne and spaceborne remote sensing data produced a variety of ecological meaningful variables.     

三峡水库135m水位蓄水典型次级河流回水段富营养化监测评价

通过2004年3月份对三峡水库135m水位蓄水状态下库区成库河段典型次级河流朱衣河、梅溪河、大宁河回水河段富营养化监测与评价,掌握了在这一季节三峡库区成库河段次级河流回水河段营养状态不同的分布模式.     

An evaluation of grid size uncertainty in empirical soil loss modeling with digital elevation models

This paper presents a study on the effect of topographic variability on grid-based empirical estimation of soil erosion and sediment transport with raster geographic information systems (GIS). An original digital elevation model (DEM) of 10 m resolution for a case watershed is resampled to six realizations of greater grid sizes for a comparative examination. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and a distance-based sediment delivery equation are applied to the watershed to calculate soil loss from each cell and total sediment transport to streams, respectively. The results suggest that the selection of the DEM gird size has considerable influence on the soil loss estimation with the empirical models. The estimate of total soil loss from the watershed decreases significantly with the increasing DEM cell size as the spatial variability is reduced by the cell aggregation. The empirical modeling approach is a useful tool for qualitative assessment of soil erosion, provided that spatial variability can be adequately represented by applied DEMs. However, discretion is suggested for its applications to quantitative estimation of soil loss concerning the sensitivity to the grid size selection.     

Desertification Evaluated Using an Integrated Environmental Assessment Model

Desertification has been defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities (United Nations, 1992). A technique for identifying and assessing areas at risk fordesertification in the arid, semi-arid, and subhumid regionsof the United States was developed by the Desert Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using selected environmental indicators integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). Five indicators were selected: potential erosion, grazing pressure, climatic stress (expressed as a function of changesin the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]), change invegetation greenness (derived from the Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index [NDVI]), and weedy invasives as a percentof total plant cover. The data were integrated over aregional geographic setting using a GIS, which facilitateddata display, development and exploration of data relationships, including manipulation and simulation testing. By combining all five data layers, landscapes having a varying risk for land degradation were identified, providing a tool which could be used to improve landmanagement efficiency.