Project appraisal and planning for overdeveloped countries: II. Shadow pricing under uncertainty

In the uncertainty that surrounds the future availability of nonrenewable natural resources and the efficacy of technological advance, the economic costing of resources should be undertaken probabilistically. While optimistic assumptions entail little change from the costing procedures used in conventional cost-benefit analysis, even moderately pessimistic assumptions lead to a much increased cost for nonrenewable resources. These lead in turn to a reappraisal of the value of investment and of the cost ascribed to other factors of production. Even when optimistic assumptions are deemed the more plausible, a utility-maximizing evaluation may still give more emphasis to pessimism.     

Characterizing Runoff and Water Yield for Headwater Catchments in the Southern Sierra Nevada

In a Mediterranean climate where much of the precipitation falls during winter, snowpacks serve as the primary source of dry season runoff. Increased warming has led to significant changes in hydrology of the western United States. An important question in this context is how to best manage forested catchments for water and other ecosystem services? Answering this basic question requires detailed understanding of hydrologic functioning of these catchments. Here, we depict the differences in hydrologic response of 10 catchments. Size of the study catchments ranges from 50 to 475 ha, and they span between 1,782 and 2,373 m elevation in the rain‐snow transitional zone. Mean annual streamflow ranged from 281 to 408 mm in the low elevation Providence and 436 to 656 mm in the high elevation Bull catchments, resulting in a 49 mm streamflow increase per 100 m (R² = 0.79) elevation gain, despite similar precipitation across the 10 catchments. Although high elevation Bull catchments received significantly more precipitation as snow and thus experienced a delayed melt, this increase in streamflow with elevation was mainly due to a reduction in evapotranspiration (ET) with elevation (45 mm/100 m, R² = 0.65). The reduction in ET was attributed to decline in vegetation density, growing season, and atmospheric demand with increasing elevation. These findings suggest changes in streamflow in response to climate warming may likely depend on how vegetation responds to those changes in climate.     

土壤DDT残留时间的定量表征-以天津为例

从定性研究逐步向定量化分析发展,是土壤DDT残留时间研究的必然趋势。初步探讨了土壤中DDT残留时间的定量表征,设计出归一化的DDT残留时间指数(NRTI)作为定量表征土壤DDT残留时间的方法之一。根据对天津土壤中残留DDT的采样监测结果的计算和分析,发现NRTI在表征DDT的残留时间问题上,相对于传统方法有一定的改进。     

Reply: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

In a recent article (Tilton, Humphreys, and Radetzki, 2011), Tilton et al. argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise. They contend that this conclusion, which is based on two hypothetical examples, is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In my comment on the article (Olle Östensson, 2011), I challenged this finding. In a reply to my article, Tilton et al. maintain that their original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when stocks are falling. In my present reply, I contend that their argument with respect to the first example confuses the actions of a minority of investors with those of all investors and is well accommodated within the framework of traditional theory. I further argue that their second example rests on an assumption regarding investor behavior that is unproven and that in any case falls outside the framework of analysis of futures markets.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply

In a recent article (Tilton et al., 2011), we argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise, a conclusion that is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In his comment on our article, Olle Östensson (2011) challenges this finding. After assessing his concerns in this reply, we maintain that our original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.     

两种植被指数与地表温度定量关系的比较研究——以南京市为例

加强绿化可有效缓解城市热岛（UHI）效应,但植被降温规律如何,如何科学绿化一直模糊不清。以南京市ETM+影像为数据源,经ATCOR2模块大气校正后,提取了南京城区地表温度（LST）、归一化植被指数（NDVI）和减化比值植被指数（RSR）,基于实测值和同时相ASTER数据反演结果的双重验证,拟合了两种植被指数与地表温度的定量关系,并进行了对比研究。结果表明：南京市存在明显的UHI,城区水体和绿地为显著的低温区,除水体外,植被覆盖度高的区域地表温度明显低于植被稀少或无植被区;地表温度与NDVI呈显著线性负相关,与RSR呈显著幂函数负相关,后者的相关性高于前者;以〖WTBX〗RSR〖WTBZ〗=32为界,此值之前,地表温度随着植被覆盖增加而锐减,此值之后,植被覆盖继续增加,地表温度却趋于恒定,呈现植被降温效应“饱和”现象;RSR能直接说明对于不同下垫面,增加相同的植被覆盖度其降温效果存在差异,而不进行土地利用分类,NDVI无法揭示此现象     

Long memory and chaotic models of prices on the London Metal Exchange

Many financial time series exhibit irregular behaviour. Economic theory suggests that this irregular behaviour might be due to the existence of nonlinear dependence in the markets. Thus, economic time series are governed by nonlinear dynamics.The purpose of this paper is to investigate price behaviour in the London Metal Exchange market. Thus, this study will test the two most attractive nonlinear models—long memory and chaos—on six metal commodities to ascertain which model is consistent with the observed metal price nonlinear dynamics.Application of long memory and chaos analysis provides new approaches for assessing the behaviour of metal prices. We identified, in tin, a case of chaos. Our empirical results in the case of aluminium support the long memory hypothesis. A short memory model explains the underlying processes of the nickel and lead returns series, while zinc returns reflect an anti-persistent process. To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to apply long memory and chaos analysis in the evaluation of the behaviour of metal prices.     

Gasoline prices and traffic safety in Mississippi

Problem

Limited literature suggests that gasoline prices have substantial effects on reducing fatal crashes. However, the literature focuses only on fatal crashes and does not examine the effects on all traffic crashes.

Methods

Mississippi traffic crash data from April 2004–December 2008 from the Mississippi Highway Patrol and regular-grade unleaded gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy were used to investigate the effects of gasoline prices on traffic safety by age, gender, and race.

Results

Gasoline prices have both short-term and intermediate-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of females, whites, and blacks. The intermediate-term effects are generally stronger than the short-term effects. Gasoline prices also have short-term effects on reducing crashes of younger drivers and intermediate-term effects on older drivers and male drivers.

Impact on Industry

Higher gasoline taxes reduce traffic crashes and may result in additional societal benefits.     

沉积物不同天然有机组分对氨氮吸附特征的影响

为估算沉积物不同天然有机组分吸附态氨氮携载量．采用平衡吸附法研究西辽河沉积物不同天然有机组分对氨氮吸附特征的影响。结果表明,去除有机质后的沉积物对氨氮的吸附能力大大降低,其碳标化饱和吸附量（Гmoc）和吸附分配系数（Koc）分别为重组的55．30％和69．49％,说明有机质是影响氨氮在沉积物上吸附特征的主要因素。氨氮在轻组有机组分上的吸附以分配作用为主（Koc=85．57）;稳结态和紧结态腐殖质是形成沉积物疏松多孔团聚体结构的重要胶结物质,氨氮在重组有机组分上的吸附除分配作用外,还存在孔隙填充方式的吸附;重组有机组分中的紧结态腐殖质（胡敏素）对氨氮吸附起关键作用（Гmoc,=5857．78mg·kg-1）。轻组有机质、稳结态腐殖质和紧结态腐殖质携载的吸附态氨氮可分别按重组（Гmoc=3477．81mg·kg-1）的0．32、1．21和1．68倍估算。关键词：沉积物;天然有机组分;氨氮;吸附;碳标化吸附分配系数;碳标化饱和吸附量     

Tools for an enhanced solvent properties screening in the early stages of pharmaceutical process development

The objective of this research was the implementation of tools for the evaluation of solvents trough property screening in the early stages of process development. An important feature of the tools is that the implementation of indexes, scores, or weights is avoided. Information already available from the literature was stored in a database in order to turn raw data into decision making information. As a result, a solvent radar chart, a solvent representation table, and a solvent telescopying tool were developed in an ASP.NET application. The synthesis of Propranolol was used as study case in order to explore the selection of solvents in the early stages of process development. The replacement of diethyl ether was possible in the extraction step, while solvent choices were detected for potential telescoping for extraction and crystallisation steps. Solubility was found as a critical parameter in telescoping analysis. The methodology proposed enhanced the view towards a more holistic perspective and a more robust solvent screening process. As a consequence, the next steps into solvent evaluation and process development can be reduced.