火力发电厂安全现状评价模式探讨

以火电厂现状评价为例,探索火力发电厂安全现状评价模式。     

WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

飞机撞击下核电厂安全壳载荷曲线相关问题研究

针对大型商用飞机对核电厂反应堆安全壳恶意撞击的安全评估需求,综述了国外确定飞机撞击安全壳载荷曲线的基础理论、试验测试技术和数值模拟方法.首先,从理论上对飞机撞击安全壳的载荷特性和Riera撞击模型进行分析,给出了Riera模型的基本假设、模型各项物理意义及模型的求解方法,明确了靶体碰撞表面的冲击载荷(力)由静载项和动载项组成;其次,分析总结了确定Riera模型中压损载荷参数的试验方法和真实飞机撞击载荷测量的试验技术和实施方法,指出大型商用飞机对核电厂反应堆安全壳恶意撞击属"软冲击"范畴,撞击载荷可用Riera模型计算得到;再者,在数值模拟方面,总结了采用有限元技术进行飞机撞击载荷计算和安全评估的数值模拟方法及其发展趋势;最后,在分析国内开展飞机撞击载荷研究面临问题的基础上,指出从理论上建立飞机撞击载荷-时间曲线计算模型及方法,并通过试验和数值模拟验证是国内确定大型商用飞机撞击安全壳结构载荷曲线比较可行的技术路线.     

基于熵值法和物元可拓模型的核电站安全运行状态评价

我国核电事业发展迅速,核电安全是核电产业发展的重要基础.针对我国核电的发展和安全运行现状,建立了安全运行状况指标体系,通过构建物元可拓模型获得各指标在各评价等级上的关联度,将关联度与熵值法求得的指标权重合成得到加权综合关联度,继而确定核电站安全运行状况评价等级.在对核电站整体运行状况进行综合评价的同时,也能实现对安全运行状况各指标的分类评价.     

基于人工神经网络建模的PTC功率智能检测技术

PTC是家用空调器中主要器件之一,具有耗电量大、非线性的特征。目前PTC常用的功率检测方法是通过"专用电量计量芯片结合电压、电流采样电路"来实现,存在成本高和可靠性低问题。提出一种基于人工神经网络的PTC功率纯软件计算方法,无需增加任何硬件成本。通过实验验证,精度达±3%,满足产品化需求,成熟可靠。     

Database for accidents and incidents in the fuel ethanol industry

The purpose of the present research is to collect information about accidents and incidents that have occurred at fuel ethanol facilities from 1998 to October 2014, and to keep complete unified records of them in a database. The developed database contains general information about the accident or incident, its sequence, mitigation measures, its causes and consequences for humans, environment and for the plant. Until now, this information is not available. The work consisted in gathering information from different documental sources and subsequent organization in a database. It complements the previous work made for biodiesel industry and fills the existing gap in the field of ethanol. Knowledge about this information enables us to manage plant risks, since the accidents that are more likely to occur and the main sources of risk can be easily identified. Also, it makes it possible to exchange information with interested third parties. Statistical analysis shows that accident frequency has an oscillatory behavior, rising in the last year. Fire is the most common type of accident, while equipment mechanical failure is the main cause of accident. Partial material loss has been identified as the most common consequence. Finally, some conclusions are obtained concerning to the importance of having an updated and complete accident and incident database.     

水电厂设备设施风险的动态分级研究

为保障水电厂安全运行,根据水电厂设备设施构成要素,系统分析其风险,建立涵盖水轮机及其辅助设备、发电机及其辅助设备、计算机监控系统及自动装置、电气一次设备、电气二次设备、水工建筑物及金属结构、机具与防护设施等因素在内的评价指标体系。采用欧氏距离定义样本差异,标准化处理属性特征值,通过聚类迭代,开发水电厂设备设施风险的动态分级方法。研究结果表明:水电厂设备设施故障风险在每年的第2,3季度明显大于第1,4季度,并且随着时间推移,各季度设备设施故障风险同比有增加的趋势,风险分级结果与设备设施故障的变化趋势基本吻合。     

基于神经网络分类器的城市污水处理厂水力冲击预警系统

提出了一套基于神经网络分类器的城市污水处理厂水力负荷冲击预警系统,以期对进水水量骤增现象进行提前1天的预报,使污水处理厂可根据预报结果提前采取水力冲击防护措施,从而保证各单元的平稳运行.根据进水水量的涨幅将某污水处理厂12年日进水水量监测数据分为"常规"和"冲击"两类,重点对"冲击"数据进行提前1天的预测,并采用冲击漏报率、冲击误报率和报准率对模型的预测精度进行评价;同时,基于同样的建模方法和不同的训练、验证样本建立了N(1)、N(2)和N(3)3个平行模型,以对模型的鲁棒性和建模方法的可重复性进行考察.结果显示,3个模型对2010年、2011年和2012年3年测试样本的预测效果良好,冲击漏报率和报准率两项指标数值均较为稳定,分别在0~0.167和0.981~0.995之间浮动,冲击误报率虽然在数值上的浮动较大,最低为0.143,最高为0.500,平均为0.310,但仍在工程上的可承受范围内.该结果表明,本研究基于神经网络分类器所建立的3个神经网络模型预测精度高、鲁棒性好,显示出良好的性能,有望为污水处理厂水力冲击防护工作提供有力参考.     

我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价

针对我国生物质气化发电行业的现状,总结诸多风险的影响因素,建立了我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价体系。该评价体系主要包括5个一级风险影响因素:市场风险、技术风险、安全风险、管理风险、环境风险,每个一级影响因素包括4个二级风险影响因素。由层次分析法获得各个一级影响因素和二级影响因素的权重值,根据所构建的评价集和评分标准,结合模糊综合评价法对我国生物质气化发电行业现状的综合风险等级做定量定性分析。综合风险评价研究结果表明,生物质气化发电行业处于"较高"的风险等级,与实际情况相符。综合风险评价体系的构建合理,所建立的评价方法以及相应对策分析可为决策者提供参考依据。     

Piriformospora indica confers cadmium tolerance in Nicotiana tabacum

Piriformospora indica, a root-colonizing endophytic fungus of Sebacinales, promotes plant growth and confers resistance against biotic and abiotic stresses. In order to confirm the influence of P. indica on growth, proline, malondialdehyde (MDA), chlorophyll, and cadmium (Cd) amounts in Nicotiana tabacum under Cd stress, hydroponics, pot and field trials were conducted. The results showed that P. indica can store Cd in plant roots and reduce leaf Cd content, reduce the concentration of MDA, and increase the proline and chlorophyll content and the activities of catalase, peroxidase, and superoxide dismutase under hydroponic Cd stress. RT-PCR analysis showed that the relative expression level of genes Gsh2, TaPCS1, oas1, GPX, and Hsp70 in colonized plants was 4.3, 1.4, 2.9, 1.7, and 6.9 fold higher than in un-colonized plants respectively. Cd exposure significantly reduced un-colonized plants'' agronomic traits compared to P. indica-colonized ones. Our results suggested that P. indica can sequester Cd in roots, so that much less cadmium was transported to leaves, and the increased concentrations of antioxidant enzymes, pigments and proline contents, as well as the higher expression of stress-related phytochelatin biosynthesis genes in P. indica-inoculated plants, may also serve to protect N. tabacum plants against oxidative damage, enhancing Cd tolerance.