基于熵权法-TOPSIS的冶金企业作业循环更新研究

为更加合理、客观地制定安全操作规程更新周期,切实保障冶金工业人员作业安全,本文以安全管理原理和作业循环检查规范为依据,采用危险与可操作性分析方法(HAZOP),系统辨识某冶金高炉车间岗位人员操作行为;通过资料分析,建立典型操作程序信息表,选用风险发生次数、受伤程度、经济损失、作业次数4个指标作为综合评价依据;将熵权法与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)结合,确定客观权重,并分析操作偏差危害程度与最劣方案的贴近程度,确定各操作规程更新周期为月检、季检、半年检、年检。结果表明:模型排序与现实情况相符,检查更新周期有效规范人员操作偏差,扩展作业循环分析规范的适用性。     

水库生态调度模型及算法研究

随着我国大规模流域开发，大量水库建设对河流生态系统造成了较大影响，如何通过水库合理调度来减轻水库对河流生态环境的负面影响，是当前水库运行调度研究中的一个热点问题。针对现行水库调度过分强调经济利益而忽视生态环境需水状况，致使部分大坝下游和库区发生生态环境退化的现象，从自然资源可持续发展的角度，探讨了水库生态调度的概念和任务，建立了水库生态调度多目标数学模型。该模型以经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益组成的综合利用效益最大为目标函数，以综合利用要求为约束条件，包括灌溉、发电、航运、旅游、河口压咸和应急用水等。该模型为具有复杂约束条件的多目标规划模型。创建了可行搜索离散微分动态规划算法(FS DDDP算法)对该模型进行了求解。〖     

On Valuing Information in Adaptive‐Management Models

Abstract: Active adaptive management looks at the benefit of using strategies that may be suboptimal in the near term but may provide additional information that will facilitate better management in the future. In many adaptive‐management problems that have been studied, the optimal active and passive policies (accounting for learning when designing policies and designing policy on the basis of current best information, respectively) are very similar. This seems paradoxical; when faced with uncertainty about the best course of action, managers should spend very little effort on actively designing programs to learn about the system they are managing. We considered two possible reasons why active and passive adaptive solutions are often similar. First, the benefits of learning are often confined to the particular case study in the modeled scenario, whereas in reality information gained from local studies is often applied more broadly. Second, management objectives that incorporate the variance of an estimate may place greater emphasis on learning than more commonly used objectives that aim to maximize an expected value. We explored these issues in a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, in which the aim was to choose between two options for revegetation. We explicitly incorporated monitoring costs in the model. The value of the terminal rewards and the choice of objective both influenced the difference between active and passive adaptive solutions. Explicitly considering the cost of monitoring provided a different perspective on how the terminal reward and management objective affected learning. The states for which it was optimal to monitor did not always coincide with the states in which active and passive adaptive management differed. Our results emphasize that spending resources on monitoring is only optimal when the expected benefits of the options being considered are similar and when the pay‐off for learning about their benefits is large.     

基于SDG模型的HAZOP分析方法在钻井作业中的应用

HAZOP分析方法是目前危险性分析领域最盛行的分析方法之一,广泛地应用于石油化工行业。但是其分析过程仅依靠专家积累的知识与经验,不仅评价的内容不严格,而且分析的可信程度有限,对实际工作的指导意义不高,不能适应工业现场的要求。鉴于HAZOP分析方法中的不足,提出了基于SDG模型的HAZOP分析方法,并利用该方法对钻井作业过程进行了危险性分析。基于SDG模型的HAZOP分析方法从复杂系统的内部逻辑入手,进行深层次的推理,不仅提高了分析效率,而且分析所得结果的完备性较好。     

Subpopulation Triage: How to Allocate Conservation Effort among Populations

Abstract:  Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes ( Vulpes macrotis mutica ). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species.     

城市水环境治理运作机制构建与创新

中国实行改革开放以来，工业化和城市化推动了城市经济的快速增长，但城市水环境破坏严重。政府部门曾采取一些措施来改善水环境，但并未有效解决污染问题。由于城市水环境治理问题的重要性和紧迫性，国家科技部在武汉市汉阳区启动“水专项”寻求有效的治理模式。由于采用新的制度安排，注重科学技术与管理制度的结合，明显改善了汉阳地区的水环境。“武汉水专项”的试验显示出市场机制在城市水环境治理这类公益项目中同样是有效率的。构建更加有效的城市水环境治理运作机制既是必要的，也是可能的。构建城市水环境治理运作机制的核心是在确保水环境改善的公共目标的基础上，实现城市水环境治理投入的外部效应内部化，城市水环境治理可以成为具有广阔市场和丰厚盈利的现代服务业.     

梯级水库建设下的水沙营养盐协同变化规律研究：以嘉陵江为例

水库建设在兴利防洪的同时对多个环境要素造成了影响,现有研究主要分析水、沙、营养盐等单一要素变化,缺乏不同要素间的协同分析.本研究基于IHA指标、MK分析、Spearman相关分析等方法讨论了1995—2017年嘉陵江梯级水库建设对流域水-沙-污染物等单个要素和多个要素协同性的综合影响.结果表明,水库建设对河流流量具有"削峰填平"作用,其中枯水期流量增加13.3%～47.0%,丰水期流量下降率最高则达19.4%;相对于流量,水库建设对泥沙的削减作用更为明显,且对上游河流泥沙输移影响更大.同时,水库建设后其下游水、沙、营养盐过程线趋同,尤其是丰水期,水、沙、营养盐指标相关系数显著提升,均达0.75以上.该结果补充了目前水库建设对水、沙、营养盐综合影响研究的不足,为水利工程影响下的水环境综合管理提供了支撑.     

生物法降解含油污泥反应器流场及工作参数研究

为提高生物反应器法处理含油污泥的降解效率,对生物反应器内铜绿假单胞菌NY3降解含油污泥的工艺过程进行研究.建立了生物反应器内气-液-固三相流场动力学模型和群体平衡模型(PBM),结合FLUENT软件对反应器内气泡直径分布和搅拌转速进行仿真.研究发现,直径在6mm以下的气泡占比为85%,能有效增加反应体系溶解氧浓度,并模拟出反应器最佳离底悬浮转速为150r/min.利用氧守恒原理建立了曝气速率随时间的变化关系模型,并通过设计实验确定最佳接菌量为15.23%,温度为32.56℃,指导最终降解过程的工艺参数选择.通过设定最佳工作参数值,用多功能生物反应器对6kg含油污泥进行降解实验,反应9d后石油烃降解率高达86.20%,含油率为1.46%.研究结果表明,生物反应器法降解含油污泥周期短、效率高,为处理含油污泥提供了一种有效可靠的新途径.     

“双碳”目标下新疆能源系统绿色转型路径

新疆是我国最重要的资源宝库和能源基地之一。如何在“双碳”目标引领下,实现能源系统的绿色转型,事关国家能源安全。在系统总结新疆主要能源的储量及分布的基础上,梳理现阶段能源生产与消费现状,分析能源转型面临的主要问题,提出了能源绿色转型路径及相关对策和建议。结果表明：（1）新疆能源系统中化石能源占比超过85%,碳减排任务异常艰巨;（2）新疆“弃风、弃光”问题严峻,弃电率高于全国平均水平;（3）要实现新疆能源系统的绿色转型,须控制煤炭消费增长,加快水—风—光—储一体化清洁能源基地建设,扩大电力对外输送通道,推进“电气化新疆”进程,发展CCUS与大规模储能新技术等。研究结果可为新疆实现“双碳”目标提供参考。     

夹层对盐岩储气库注采运行稳定性影响研究

为保证含夹层盐岩储气库长期注采过程的安全稳定,开展夹层几何特征对盐岩储气库注采运行稳定性影响的研究.通过FLAC3D开展数值模拟,研究单一夹层厚度、位置及夹层数量等几何特征对储气库围岩应力、变形的影响规律,并分析盐腔的稳定性和可用性对夹层几何参数的敏感性特征.结果 表明:随夹层厚度、数量的增加,盐腔围岩所受压应力增大,...