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961.
962.
为提高腐蚀管道失效压力的预测精度并简化其计算过程,提出基于粗糙集(RS)和粒子群算法(PSO)融合极限学习机(ELM)的腐蚀管道失效压力预测模型。通过属性约简提取影响失效压力的关键因素,选用PSO优化ELM的输入权值和隐含层偏差,将归一化的核心指标数据代入计算。结果表明:该模型预测结果与实际值基本一致,与单一ELM模型相比,预测结果的均方差(MSE)降至0.255;与其他蚀管道失效压力评价模型相比,该模型预测结果的绝对误差平均值降至0.32。 相似文献
963.
为研究系统故障演化过程中,通过原因事件得到的结果事件发生可能性与直接试验得到的结果事件发生可能性不同的问题,定义系统故障演化过程的不连续现象,研究不连续现象出现的原因和消除方法。根据不连续现象的程度将原因分为3层,第1层是基本的原因事件、结果事件或传递的概率错误造成的不连续;第2层是因素对应错误造成的概率错误;第3层是演化结构不清造成的错误。针对这些错误提出消除方法,基本方法包括试验法、结构分析法和逻辑推理法;第2层次使用空间故障树和因素空间等方法;第3层使用三值逻辑等方法。研究结果表明:导致不连续的原因是演化过程的结构性问题,消除的方法应根据实际情况进行选择和变化。 相似文献
964.
Jonathan I. Eisen‐Hecht Randall A. Kramer 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2002,38(2):453-465
ABSTRACT: The primary objective of this study was to perform a cost‐benefit analysis of maintaining the current level of water quality in the Catawba River basin. Economic benefits were estimated using a stated preference survey method designed to value respondents' willingness to pay for a management plan to protect water quality in the Catawba basin over time. From the surveys conducted with 1,085 area residents, we calculated an annual mean willingness to pay of $139 for the management plan, or more than $75.4 million for all taxpayers in the area. Over the five‐year time horizon in which respondents were asked to pay for the management plan, this resulted in a total economic benefit of $340.1 million. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used to estimate the amount of management activities needed to protect the current level of water quality in the basin over time. Based on the model results, the total cost of the management plan was calculated to be $244.8 million over a ten‐year period. The resulting cost‐benefit analysis indicated that the potential benefits of this management plan would outweigh the costs by more than $95 million. 相似文献
965.
Diogo Alagador 《Conservation biology》2023,37(2):e14026
Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them. 相似文献
966.
Conservation decisions are invariably made with incomplete data on species’ distributions, habitats, and threats, but frameworks for allocating conservation investments rarely account for missing data. We examined how explicit consideration of missing data can boost return on investment in ecosystem restoration, focusing on the challenge of restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity by removing dams and road crossings from rivers. A novel way of integrating the presence of unmapped barriers into a barrier optimization model was developed and applied to the U.S. state of Maine to maximize expected habitat gain for migratory fish. Failing to account for unmapped barriers during prioritization led to nearly 50% lower habitat gain than was anticipated using a conventional barrier optimization approach. Explicitly acknowledging that data are incomplete during project selection, however, boosted expected habitat gains by 20–273% on average, depending on the true number of unmapped barriers. Importantly, these gains occurred without additional data. Simply acknowledging that some barriers were unmapped, regardless of their precise number and location, improved conservation outcomes. Given incomplete data on ecosystems worldwide, our results demonstrate the value of accounting for data shortcomings during project selection. 相似文献
967.
Tienan Ju Mei Lei Guanghui Guo Jinglun Xi Yang Zhang Yuan Xu Qijia Lou 《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》2023,17(1):8
968.
为摸清沈阳市某装备制造产业园地下水污染运移规律,科学指导当地生态环境管理部门开展工作,以该园区为研究对象,采用有限差分法,建立了该区域地下水水流数值模型,并利用地下水数值模拟软件(GMS软件)模拟预测了连续源强和瞬态源强污染物泄漏情景下1年、5年、10年及20年后污染物在地下水中的运移情况.经计算得到结论如下:①连续源... 相似文献
969.
970.
根据2016—2020年哈尔滨市、大庆市、绥化市(以下称哈大绥)国控环境空气自动监测站的SO2、NO2、PM2.5监测资料,统计年鉴中行政区划、污染物排放及气象等监测数据,分析哈大绥区域环境空气质量的变化趋势和测算因子,采用A值法核定了哈大绥区域SO2、NO2、PM2.5的大气环境容量。结果表明:哈大绥SO2、NO2、PM2.5 3项污染物采暖季的大气环境容量均呈逐年递增趋势。通过计算环境承载能力发现,哈大绥SO2、NO2、PM2.5 3项污染物在非采暖季均具有高承载能力,哈大绥非采暖季环境容量高于采暖季。哈尔滨的个别污染物仍然处于临界超载状态,为减少重污染天气,应进一步削减采暖季污染物排放量。 相似文献