华北地区1951-2009年气温、降水变化特征

基于华北五省(市)64个基本气象站的1961-2009年逐年逐月气温、降水资料, 利用泰森权重计算了华北地区面平均降水及面平均气温,并建立了7个长序列气象站的气温、降水与面平均值的回归方程,展延了研究区1951-1960年面平均降水和气温资料。对展延后的1951-2009年序列数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验、Mann-Whitney检验、9 a滑动平均等方法进行趋势分析,分析结果显示: 该区59 a间年气温上升了1.5 ℃,年气温序列存在显著上升趋势,年气温序列在1993年前后有一个突变点,年气温距平以1989年为低温期与高温期的分界线,年气温平均每10 a增长2.2%;年降水序列无显著趋势,亦无显著跳跃趋势,年降水距平大致以1976年为多雨期与少雨期的分界线,年降水平均每10 a增长-1.3%。研究成果为深入分析华北地区气候变化规律、未来气候变化影响,以及水资源对气候变化的响应提供了基础。     

Effects of water regime,crop residues,and application rates on control of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense

Biological soil disinfestation is an effective method to control soil-borne disease by flooding and incorporating with organic amendments, but field conditions and resources sometimes limited its practical application. A laboratory experiment was conducted to develop practice guidelines on controlling Fusarium wilt, a widespread banana disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (FOC). FOC infested soil incorporated with rice or maize straw at rates of 1.5 tons/ha and 3.0 tons/ha was incubated under flooded or water-saturated (100% water holding capacity) conditions at 30°C for 30 days. Results showed that FOC populations in the soils incorporated with either rice or maize straw rapidly reduced more than 90% in the first 15 days and then fluctuated till the end of incubation, while flooding alone without organic amendment reduced FOC populations slightly. The rapid and dramatic decrease of redox potential (down to − 350 mV) in straw-amended treatments implied that both anaerobic condition and strongly reductive soil condition would contribute to pathogen inactivation. Water-saturation combined with straw amendments had the comparable effects on reduction of FOC, indicating that flooding was not indispensable for inactivating FOC. There was no significant difference in the reduction of FOC observed in the straw amendments at between 1.5 and 3 tons/ha. Therefore, incorporating soil with straw (rice or maize straw) at a rate of 3.0 tons/ha under 100% water holding capacity or 1.5 tons/ha under flooding, would effectively alleviate banana Fusarium wilt caused by FOC after 15-day treating under 30°C.     

便携式GC-FID法测定固定污染源废气中的苯系物

为研究便携式GC-FID方法测定固定污染源废气中苯系物的适用性,选择3款不同设备(2款进口、1款国产)开展实验室分析及现场测试。研究测试苯系物的目标物具体包括苯、甲苯、乙苯、邻/间/对二甲苯、苯乙烯、1,3,5-三甲苯、1,2,4-三甲苯以及1,2,3-三甲苯。实验研究了各设备对苯系物的分析周期、检出限、精密度以及准确度。结果表明:便携式GC-FID方法测定固定污染源废气中的苯系物具备较好的适用性,能够满足固定源废气中苯系物管控及监测要求;国产设备性能指标均可以达到甚至超越进口设备的水平,建议相关部门制定相应的方法标准。     

Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

西北地区近50年日照时数和风速变化特征

利用中国西北地区(甘肃、宁夏、青海、陕西以及新疆地区)1960-2009年112个观测站日照时数、风速和气温等资料,分析了近50 a中国西北地区日照时数和风速的年、季节、月的时空变化特征以及风速和气温的相关性。研究表明:近50 a来西北地区日照时数大部分地区表现为显著的减少趋势,平均每10 a减少13.6 h,1981年发生突变;空间分布上以新疆中部地区、关中平原和秦巴山地减少最为突出,季节上以夏、冬两个季节的减少趋势最显著。该区年平均风速也呈明显减少趋势,平均每10 a减少0.09 m·s^-1,其西部地区的减少率大致高于东部地区的减少率,以新疆大部分地区、青海大部分地区以及河西走廊减少最为明显;并且风速与平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温有一定的相关性。