基于人工神经网络的莺落峡月径流模拟预测

莺落峡是黑河干流出山口径流量的重要控制站,莺落峡径流量的多少直接影响着该流域经济、社会的发展和生态环境保护,水资源分配和调度的管理和决策。论文基于人工神经网络,对莺落峡径流进行了模拟预测。将月径流分为汛期和非汛期,分别建立BP人工神经网络,通过对径流分类前后的模型进行比较,发现分类后的月径流BP模型的性能显然优于未分类的模型,故此设计了4种不同气候情景,采用分类后的模型对莺落峡2030年的径流量进行了预测。即,在降水量不变、气温增加0.5℃,2030年莺落峡年径流量将增加8.92%;气温增加1℃、降水量不变,年径流量将减少5.414%;气温不变、降水量增加10%,年径流量将增加9.905%;气温增加0.5℃、降水量增加10%,年径流量将增加8.98%。     

Trophic field overlap: A new approach to quantify keystone species

It is a current challenge to better understand the relative importance of species in ecosystems, and the network perspective is able to offer quantitative tools for this. It is plausible to assume, in general, that well-linked species, being key interactors, are also more important for the community. Recently a number of methods have been suggested for quantifying the network position of species in ecological networks (like the topological importance metric, TI). Most of them are based on node centrality indices and it may happen that the two most important species in a food web have very similar interaction structure and they can essentially replace each other if one becomes extinct. For conservation considerations it is a challenge to identify species that are richly connected and, at the same time, have a relatively unique and irreplaceable interaction pattern. We present a new method and illustrate our approach by using the Kuosheng Bay trophic network in Taiwan. The new method is based on the interaction matrix, where the strength of the interaction between nodes i and j depends only on topology. By defining a threshold separating weak and strong interactors, we define the effective range of interactions for each graph node. If the overlaps between pairs of these ranges are quantified, we gain a metric expressing how unique is the interaction pattern of a focal node (TO). The combination of centrality (TI) and uniqueness (TO) is called topological functionality (TF). We compare the nodal importance rank provided by this metric to others based on a variety of centrality measures. The main conclusion is that shrimps seem to have the most unique interaction pattern despite that their structural importance has been underestimated by all conventional centrality indices. Also, our network analysis suggests that fisheries disturb the ecosystem in a more critical network position than the impingement by the local power plant.     

Comparing network analysis methodologies for consumer–resource relations at species and ecosystems scales

This research compares two existing methodologies, mixed trophic impact analysis and utility analysis, which use network analysis to evaluate the direct, pair-wise, and indirect, holistic, ecological relations between ecosystem compartments. The two approaches have many similarities, but differ in some key assumptions which affect both the final results and interpretations. Here, we briefly introduce both methodologies through a series of two simple examples; a 3-compartment competition model and a 3-compartment food chain model, and then apply the methodologies to a 15-compartment ecosystem model of the Chesapeake Bay. This example demonstrates how implementing the various conceptual and methodological assumptions lead to differing results. Notably, the overall number of positive relations is greatly affected by the treatment of the self-interactions and the handling of detritus compartments lead to a distinction between ecological or trophic relations. We recommend slight changes to both methodologies, not necessarily in order to bring them completely together, but because each has some points which are stronger and better defensible.     

Comparative network analysis toward characterization of systemic organization for human–environmental sustainability

A preliminary study in comparative ecological network analysis was conducted to identify key assumptions and methodological challenges, test initial hypotheses and explore systemic and network structural characteristics for environmentally sustainable ecosystems. A nitrogen network for the U.S. beef supply chain – a small sub-network of the industrial food system analyzed as a pilot study – was constructed and compared to four non-human carbon and nitrogen trophic networks for the Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades. These non-human food webs served as sustainable reference systems. Contrary to the main original hypothesis, the “window of vitality” and the number of network roles did not clearly differentiate between a human sub-network and the more complete non-human networks. The effective trophic level of humans (a partial estimate of trophic level based on the single food source of beef) was much higher (8.1) than any non-human species (maximum of 4.88). Network connectance, entropy, total dependency coefficients, trophic efficiencies and the ascendency to capacity ratio also indicated differences that serve as hypotheses for future tests on more comprehensive human food webs. The study elucidated important issues related to (1) the steady state assumption, which is more problematic for industrial human systems, (2) the absence or dearth of data on contributions of dead humans and human wastes to feed other species in an integrated food web, (3) the ambiguity of defining some industrial compartments as living versus non-living, and (4) challenges with constructing compartments and trophic transfers in industrial versus non-human food webs. The two main novel results are (1) the progress made toward adapting ecological network analysis (ENA) methodology for analysis of human food networks in industrial cultures and (2) characterizing the critical aspects of comparative ENA for understanding potential causes of the problems, and providing avenues for solutions, for environmental sustainability. Based on this work, construction and comparative network analysis of a more comprehensive industrial human food network seems warranted and likely to provide valuable insights for modifying structures of industrial food networks to be more like natural networks and more sustainable.     

Artificial neural network modeling of the river water quality—A case study

The paper describes the training, validation and application of artificial neural network (ANN) models for computing the dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) levels in the Gomti river (India). Two ANN models were identified, validated and tested for the computation of DO and BOD concentrations in the Gomti river water. Both the models employed eleven input water quality variables measured in river water over a period of 10 years each month at eight different sites. The performance of the ANN models was assessed through the coefficient of determination (R²) (square of the correlation coefficient), root mean square error (RMSE) and bias computed from the measured and model computed values of the dependent variables. Goodness of the model fit to the data was also evaluated through the relationship between the residuals and model computed values of DO and BOD. The model computed values of DO and BOD by both the ANN models were in close agreement with their respective measured values in the river water. Relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output was evaluated through the partitioning approach. The identified ANN models can be used as tools for the computation of water quality parameters.     

Optimization of tourism impacts within protected areas by means of genetic algorithms

The search for a balance between nature conservation and tourism development within protected areas is becoming an increasingly multifaceted problem worldwide, as outlined by an increasing number of authors and highlighted at several international events. Since it is unlikely that all management objectives will reach their optimum values simultaneously, an optimization approach is required to meet multiple, conflicting goals and to obtain an overall trade-off in terms of the conceived objectives.     

A comparison of two models with Landsat data for estimating above ground grassland biomass in Inner Mongolia,China

Two models, artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR), were developed to estimate typical grassland aboveground dry biomass in Xilingol River Basin, Inner Mongolia, China. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and topographic variables (elevation, aspect, and slope) were combined with atmospherically corrected reflectance from the Landsat ETM+ reflective bands as the candidate input variables for building both models. Seven variables (NDVI, aspect, and bands 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7) were selected by the ANN model (implemented in Statistica 6.0 neural network module), while six (elevation, NDVI, and bands 1, 3, 5 and 7) were picked to fit the MLR function after a stepwise analysis was executed between the candidate input variables and the above ground dry biomass. Both models achieved reasonable results with RMSEs ranging from 39.88% to 50.08%. The ANN model provided a more accurate estimation (RMSE_r = 39.88% for the training set, and RMSE_r = 42.36% for the testing set) than MLR (RMSE_r = 49.51% for the training, and RMSE_r = 53.20% for the testing). The final above ground dry biomass maps of the research area were produced based on the ANN and MLR models, generating the estimated mean values of 121 and 147 g/m², respectively.     

Young-boy networks without kin clusters in a lek-mating manakin

I use 10 years of data from a long-term study of lek-mating long-tailed manakins to relate the social network among males to their spatial and genetic structure. Previously, I showed that the network connectivity of young males predicts their future success. Here, I ask whether kinship might shape the organization of this “young-boy network”. Not surprisingly, males that were more socially distant (linked by longer network paths) were affiliated with perch zones (lek arenas) that were further apart. Relatedness (r) among males within the network decreased as social distance increased, as might be expected under kin selection. Nevertheless, any role for indirect inclusive fitness benefits is refuted by the slightly negative mean relatedness among males at all social distances within the network (overall mean r = −0.06). That is, relatedness ranged from slightly negative (−0.04) to more negative (−0.2). In contrast, relatedness in dyads for which at least one of the males was outside the social network (involving at least one blood-sampled male not documented to have interacted with other banded males) was slightly above the random expectation (mean r = 0.05). The slight variations around r = 0 among males of different categories likely reflect dispersal dynamics, rather than any influence of kinship on social organization. Relatedness did not covary with the age difference between males. These results, together with previous results for lack of relatedness between alpha and beta male partners, refute any role for kin selection in the evolution of cooperative display in this lek-mating system. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau, and R. James).     

Social network analysis and valid Markov chain Monte Carlo tests of null models

Analyses of animal social networks derived from group-based associations often rely on randomisation methods developed in ecology (Manly, Ecology 76:1109–1115, 1995) and made available to the animal behaviour community through implementation of a pair-wise swapping algorithm by Bejder et al. (Anim Behav 56:719–725, 1998). We report a correctable flaw in this method and point the reader to a wider literature on the subject of null models in the ecology literature. We illustrate the importance of correcting the method using a toy network and use it to make a preliminary analysis of a network of associations among eagle rays.

长江三角洲河网地区典型城镇街尘中多环芳烃的污染特征

街尘是一种重要的环境介质,其携带的污染物在城镇化过程中对河网地区的水环境构成了一定的威胁.为初步探讨长江三角洲河网地区典型街尘中多环芳烃(PAHs)的污染特征,以杭嘉湖平原河网地区饮用水水源河流上游典型小城镇的街尘为研究对象,对工业区、交通干道、旧居区、新居区和商业区5种土地利用类型的15个采样点进行街尘样品采集和粒径分级,测试街尘的密度、有机质含量以及16种U.S.EPA优控PAHs含量等指标.结果表明,粒径为<63、63～125、125～250和250～900μm街尘中总多环芳烃(∑PAHs)的平均含量分别为7261、5835、4660和2909μg·kg-1,粒径越小,PAHs含量越高,其生态风险越大.不同土地利用类型的街尘中PAHs的含量顺序依次为:工业区>交通干道>旧居区>新居区>商业区.街尘中PAHs和有机质含量存在显著正相关关系,且街尘粒径越小,有机质和PAHs的相关性越强.源解析结果表明,街尘中的PAHs多为燃烧源.