基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

外浮顶罐充氮管网设计及有效性试验验证

为了预防外浮顶罐密封圈雷击火灾,提出在密封圈内充入氮气的保护方法.将安全含氧量作为充氮的惰化目标,对外浮顶罐充氮管网进行设计,并通过试验来验证充氮管网的有效性.试验得到了充氮流量、进出气孔数量及管径与有效充氮时间的关系.若以142 m3/h的流量对容量为10×104 m3的外浮顶罐密封圈内充氮,则46.5 min内可以达到充氮惰化目标.雷电预警时间为60 ～ 90 min的条件下,充氮时间小于预警时间,表明所设计的管网是有效的.     

落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析

针对影响油气管道安全运营的落石冲击问题,基于弹塑性力学、Cowper-Symonds本构模型和有限元方法,建立了球形落石冲击油气管道的计算模型,对管道动态响应过程进行了数值模拟。对冲击速度、落石半径、管道内压力和落石冲击位置进行了参数敏感性分析,研究了各参数对管道冲击变形的影响规律。结果表明:落石的冲击能量主要用于管道塑性变形;冲击过程中,落石与管道的接触区域由初始的椭圆斑逐渐变成了椭圆环;管道塑性变形随着冲击速度和落石半径的增大而增大,随内压和落石偏移度的增大而减小。该研究工作为油气管道的安全评价及防护工程的设计提供了参考依据,对保障油气安全运输具有重要的工程意义。     

地表载荷对硬岩区埋地管道应力应变影响分析

为研究地表载荷对硬岩区埋地管道力学性能的影响,建立了管-土耦合三维数值模型,分析了地表载荷大小、作用面积、管道压力、管道径厚比及回填土弹性模量对管道应力分布、塑性应变、椭圆度的影响。结果表明:地表压载作用下,高应力区首先出现在管道顶部且呈椭圆形;随着地表载荷及其作用面积的增大,管道高应力区逐渐扩大,管道截面左右两侧也出现应力集中;随着回填土弹性模量、管道壁厚及内压的增加,管道顶部高应力区及最大等效应力均减小。塑性应变首先出现在管顶,且塑性区随地表载荷、载荷作用长度增加而增大,随回填土体弹性模量及管道壁厚增大而逐渐减小;当内压为0~4MPa时,管道塑性应变及塑性区随内压的增大而减小。管道椭圆度随回填土体弹性模量、管道内压、壁厚增加而逐渐减小,随地表压载增大而增大。     

管道中烟道气流动传热及酸凝结规律

针对注烟道气稠油热采中管道输送烟道气酸凝结问题,以连续性方程、能量方程和动量方程为基础建立了烟道气沿管道流动与传热计算模型,计算了烟道气沿管道的压力分布、温度分布和酸凝结点距离,分析了不同入口参数和烟道气成分对管道中烟道气的压力、温度、酸凝结点的影响。结果表明:SO3或水蒸汽含量增加时,烟道气酸凝结点温度提高,凝结点距离减小;入口烟道气压力提高,烟道气压降变小,温降不变,酸凝结点距离减小;入口烟温升高,压降和温降都增大,酸凝结点距离增大;保温层厚度增加,温降减小,酸凝结点距离增大。计算和分析结果表明:减少烟道气中SO3或水蒸汽含量可以有效地增大酸凝结点距离,减轻管道腐蚀问题。     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

压缩空气泡沫在长距离管路输送中压降的数值模拟

基于Fluent对压缩空气泡沫在长距离管道中的流动特性进行了数值模拟研究,将压缩空气泡沫近似为弥散流,采用Saplart-Allmaras模型模拟了不同管径下压缩空气泡沫以及不同泡沫原液浓度的AFFF泡沫在长距离管道内的流动及压降变化。模拟结果表明,随着距离变化,各管径管道内压降均呈现线性变化,且随着压缩空气泡沫的流动,压降线性增大。管道管径对管内压降变化具有显著影响,管道直径越小,管道内压降越大;泡沫原液浓度对压降的影响较小,且压缩空气泡沫在长距离输送中的压力随距离线性衰减。将模拟结果与长距离输送的试验结果进行了对比,误差在10%以内。     

指数模型法在海洋石油设施风险评估中的应用

针对海上油气设施工况复杂、自然环境恶劣、应急救援难度大等特点,通过构建海上采油平台、海底管道和钻修井平台风险评估指数模型,辨识出水深增大、服役期长、腐蚀、疲劳、浅层地质条件变化等是风险等级升高的主要因素,识别出部分采油平台主结构疲劳损伤,海底管道内壁腐蚀及缺陷无法准确掌握、作业平台插桩不到位等问题,并提出检验检测、更换设施、强制退出等风险管控措施和建议。     

Upstream Sediment‐Control Dams: Five Decades of Experience in the Rapidly Eroding Dahan River Basin,Taiwan

Sedimentation is emerging as a key issue in sustainable reservoir management. One approach to controlling reservoir sedimentation is to trap sediment in hydraulic structures upstream of the reservoir. In the 1,163‐km² catchment of the Dahan River (Taiwan) over 120 “sabo” dams were built to reduce sediment yield to Shihmen Reservoir. Built in 1963 for water supply, Shihmen has lost over 40% of its 290‐Mm³ storage capacity to sedimentation. Most of these upstream structures were small, but three had capacities >9 Mm³. Field measurements and historical data from the Water Resources Agency show most smaller dams had filled with sediment by 1976. The three largest were full or nearly so by 2007, when one (Barlin Dam) failed, releasing a pulse of 7.5 Mm³, most of its 10.4 Mm³ stored sediment downstream. The Central Range of Taiwan is rapidly eroding (denudation rates 3‐6 mm/yr), so geologically high loads make sediment problems manifest sooner. Even in other environments, however, eventually small dams built upstream of large reservoirs are likely to fill themselves, creating multiple small sediment‐filled reservoirs, some located in sites inaccessible to mechanical removal. Our analysis suggests sabo dams do not offer a long‐term basis for controlling reservoir sedimentation in such a high‐sediment yield environment. Sustainable solutions must somehow pass sediment downstream, as would be accomplished by a sediment bypass around Shihmen Reservoir, as now being studied.     

探讨ADC芯片引脚与印制板之间的固封方式

通过故障分析,将某产品高温老炼试验过程中发生的性能异常现象定位于ADC芯片部分引脚焊点脱焊。为验证芯片引脚与印制板之间的固封方式对焊点受力的影响,分别对"底部灌封+四角固封"及"底部灌封+四边固封"固封方式进行试验验证及随机振动、热应力分析。根据分析结果,高温浸泡时"底部灌封+四边固封"方式下,焊点受力均匀,最大热应力低于3MPa;而"底部灌封+四角固封"固封方式下的焊点最大热应力约5.1MPa,导致了焊点的蠕变疲劳失效。为减少高温浸泡时焊点的热应力,设计了"底部不灌胶,四边固封但一角不封口"的固封方式,并顺利通过相应的验证试验,证明这是一种较为妥当的固封方式。