Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management.     

Establishing moral bearings: ethics and expatriate health care professionals in humanitarian work

Expatriate health care professionals frequently participate in international responses to natural disasters and humanitarian emergencies. This field of practice presents important clinical, logistical and ethical challenges for clinicians. This paper considers the ethics of health care practice in humanitarian contexts. It examines features that contribute to forming the moral landscape of humanitarian work, and discusses normative guidelines and approaches that are relevant for this work. These tools and frameworks provide important ethics resources for humanitarian settings. Finally, it elaborates a set of questions that can aid health care professionals as they analyse ethical issues that they experience in the field. The proposed process can assist clinicians as they seek to establish their moral bearings in situations of ethical complexity and uncertainty. Identifying and developing ethics resources and vocabulary for clinical practice in humanitarian work will help health care professionals provide ethically sound care to patients and communities.     

老家依恋对秦巴山区生态移民新环境融入的影响——基于陕南三市的案例研究

生态移民的新环境融入对实现移民安置目标具有重要意义。本文选取陕南商洛、安康和汉中三市的三个移民安置点作为案例地,利用半结构化访谈对196位就近安置生态移民进行调查,通过质性分析和QCA（定性比较分析法）相结合的方式将移民老家依恋和新家地方融入/疏离进行了关联分析。研究表明：移民融入新环境是一个老家—新家互动的建构家的过程,就近安置使得这种互动过程更加显著;与其他移民类型相比,就近安置使得老家与新家之间的关系表现出全面性的特点,包括老家认同、功能性依赖和社会支持;就近安置所存在的老家与新家联系的复杂性成为移民对新环境产生疏离的重要因素。研究建议,除了解决移民所面临的实际困难,应允许移民进行老家与新家的互动,并对互动做进一步的政策性安排,以便逐步实现移民心理和社会多层次的新环境融入。     

Urban agriculture,civil interfaces and moving beyond difference: the experiences of plot holders in Dublin and Belfast

Recent literature suggests that a “shared politics of place” attained through joint activities fosters social integration and provides people with a means to practise co-operation [Baumann, G., 1996. Contesting culture: discourses of identity in multi-ethnic London. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; Sanjek, R., 1998. The future of us all: race & neighbourhood policies in New York City. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press; Sennett, R., 2012. Together: the rituals, pleasures and politics of cooperation. UK: Penguin]. Such a “shared politics of place” is most likely to occur in the context of public space conceptualised broadly as “the setting for everyday spatial behaviour of individuals and communities, emphasizing ordinary activities of citizens” [Lownsbrough, H. and Beunderman, J., 2007. Equally spaced? Public space and interaction between diverse communities. London: Demos, p. 8]. Here we explore one element of such public space – urban agriculture sites – with a view to identifying the extent to which a “shared politics of place” can be created and nurtured among the cultivating citizenry. The paper draws on data collected on allotment gardening sites in two urban contexts: Dublin (Ireland) and Belfast (Northern Ireland) over the period 2009–2013. We demonstrate the centrality of allotment cultivation to the generation of solidarity, mutuality and trust among participating citizens. Individuals engaging in allotment gardening in both Dublin and Belfast create and sustain civil interfaces – dismantling barriers, exchanging knowledge, challenging stereotypes, generating empathy and getting on with the business of simply getting on with their lives. The modus operandi of allotment gardening is predicated on a willingness to disregard social and ethno-national categorisations while on site. This is not to deny that such differences exist and persist, but allotments offer a “space of potential” where those differences are, at least for a time, rendered less salient.     

USING CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT: ARIZONA AND THE 1997–1998 EL NIÑO1

ABSTRACT: Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentially wet winter during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. This study investigates use of this information through a series of semi‐structured in‐depth interviews with key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Study findings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstration projects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitate information transfer between the hydro‐climatic research community and operational water managers.     

FUZZY ITERATION METHODOLOGY FOR RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir flood control is operated in real time so finding the optimal solution is unnecessary since it may not be practical. The key to reservoir flood control operation is quickly generating some feasible and effective alternatives and then selecting one among them. A fuzzy iteration methodology, which gives the objective weight and the relative membership degree of alternatives at the same time, is presented. Since the weight and relative membership degree are directly acquired from the recommended alternatives provided by decision makers, the results are more reasonable and realistic. Besides, the difficulty in giving weights is also avoided. With the aid of a robust and flexible decision support system, the effectiveness of decision making can be improved.     

WATER CONSERVATION IN CASABLANCA,MOROCCO1

ABSTRACT: This study examines water consumption characteristics in Casablanca and analyzes approaches for sustainable water demand management. Research procedures involve the development and estimation of water demand models for the residential/commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors; forecasts of water demand to 2010; and simulation of the effects of a complex of water conservation methods on the forecasted demands. The results indicate that residential/commercial water demand is weakly responsive to price changes (elasticity =?0.448) while institutional water demand is slightly more responsive (elasticity =?0.648). The conservation approaches used in the simulations included public education, plumbing code revisions to require use of water conservation devices, leak detection and repair, pricing policy, metering, and pressure reduction. The results indicate that considerable saving in water use can be attained through a comprehensive water demand management program.     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

WHO GETS CLEAN WATER? AID ALLOCATION TO SMALL WATER SYSTEMS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: Research on the condition of drinking water provision in the United States documents the inequitable financial impact of environmental regulations on small water systems (those serving 3,300 or fewer people). While a variety of federal and state financial assistance programs are available for water systems, few quantitative analyses have evaluated the success of these programs in alleviating the problems of small systems. A case study of the largest aid initiative for water supply infrastructure in Pennsylvania provides the empirical framework through which to analyze government funding opportunities for water systems. This study examines the allocation practices of the Pennsylvania Infrastructure Investment Authority (PENNVEST) to water systems of varying sizes. Utilizing data from PENNVEST applications and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the distribution of PENNVEST award recipients and denied applicants by size characteristics are compared. The study indicates that very small water systems (those serving 500 or fewer) do not apply for or receive funds with the same frequency as their larger counterparts. Understanding the allocation of awards from PENNVEST offers insight into the ability of small communities to access capital for water supply infrastructure.     

State subsidies induce gray jays to accept greater danger: an ecologically rational response?

Models of strictly rational choice assume that decision-makers evaluate options on relevant dimensions, assign fixed values to options, and then make consistent choices based on these values. If so, recent experience would have no impact on preference. But, recent events change an animal’s state, and preference may change accordingly. We explore how state affects willingness to accept greater danger to obtain larger food rewards. We tested how a supplement in state (hoard size) impacts this willingness in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). When subsidized, most of the subjects increased their willingness to trade danger for food. Why would they become less cautious when their hoard was increased? Superficially, it might seem prudent to play it safer in response to a subsidy. But imagining fitness as a sigmoid function of state (hoard size) provides a tentative explanation for our counterintuitive finding. Above a threshold hoard size, a subsidy should weaken the willingness to accept extra danger. Incremental increases in state in the deceleratory phase yield smaller fitness gains, so it would pay to increase emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. But below this threshold, incremental increases in state in the acceleratory phase yield bigger fitness gains, and so it would pay to decrease emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. Most of our subjects’ choice behavior was, thus, plausibly consistent with the possibility that effective hoard size is considerably smaller than the total number of items stored. We speculate that this response may reflect an ecologically rational compensation for the inevitable loss of hoards via theft and rot.