成品油站场工艺管道风险辨识与评价

为保障成品油站场工艺管道的安全平稳运行,在充分辨识风险因素的前提下,提出了一种基于KENT法和RBI的风险评价方法。首先,以风险机理分析为基础,采用SHEL模型从导致风险上升的直接原因（风险内因）和间接原因（风险外因）2个角度辨识了风险因素,并细化各因素指标项;然后借鉴KENT法,对各指标项进行评分量化;依据RBI法,采用风险外因体系修正风险内因体系的方式确定失效可能性;综合环境后果、人员后果与商业后果,明确失效后果的评价体系与计算方法;最后,结合失效可能性与失效后果进行风险评价,从风险等级和风险排序2方面为检维修决策提供依据。应用表明:该评价方法便于工艺管道风险评价的基层实施,可为基于风险的检维修决策提供有效技术支撑。     

基于模糊评价的VDT系统搜索策略绩效形成机理研究

为优化视觉显示终端（VDT）结构性搜索界面的布局,提高作业绩效和安全,设计了VDT系统搜索实验,构建了搜索目标位置在4个主观偏好指标下的Pythagorean模糊集决策矩阵,运用交互式多准则决策（TODIM）法计算各目标位置偏好的总体优势度并排序;同时对VDT系统搜索实验中各目标位置的绩效进行方差分析并排序,分析系统搜索策略下作业者对目标位置的主观偏好与绩效之间的关系。研究结果表明:基于系统搜索策略的VDT作业绩效在不同目标位置差异显著;导致绩效差异的根本原因是作业者对搜索目标位置的主观偏好度,而不是搜索目标的位置属性;除中心区域外,偏好度高的区域搜索绩效要优于偏好度低的区域。     

高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析

为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。     

城市轨道交通车站应急疏散方案决策研究

城市轨道交通应急疏散方案决策是1个多准则决策问题,传统方法难以将决策者的偏好与风险倾向纳入考虑,因此引入累积前景理论与集对分析,得到1种结合累积前景理论与集对分析的决策方法。该方法考虑决策者面对风险时的态度,计算出方案的累积前景值;引入集对分析,通过时间权重与准则权重将前景值与集对势联系起来,计算出方案综合集对势,并利用其大小对备选方案进行排序;最后通过实例计算以及对权重的扰动分析,验证了方法有效性。     

Constraints on foraging success due to resource ecology limit colony productivity in social insects

The benefit of group living is a fundamental question in social evolution. For sociality to evolve, each individual must gain in terms of some fitness component by living in larger groups. However, in social insects, a decrease in per capita success in brood production has been observed in larger groups. While it has been proposed that this decrease could be outweighed by an increase in the predictability of success, a functional basis to this hypothesis has so far never been demonstrated. In this paper, using foraging economics as a functional proxy to colony productivity, we construct a model to explore how number of foragers in the colony interacts with the ecology of resources to influence per capita foraging success and its predictability. The results of the model show that there is no increase in per capita foraging success in larger colonies under most circumstances, though there is an increase in its predictability. We then test the model with empirical data on the foraging behavior of the primitively eusocial wasp, Ropalidia marginata. The consistency between the data and the model suggests that foraging economics could provide a robust functional basis in explaining the relationship between colony size and productivity.     

秋色叶树种在园林造景中的应用

秋色叶树种是园林造景中重要的观赏树种之一，我国秋色叶树木资源十分丰富，开发利用秋色叶树木资源对我国园林建设具有重要意义．作者分析了秋色叶树种内涵，主要树种的性状、特征、观赏价值及在我国自然秋色景观中的应用等，初步探讨了它们在城市园林造景中应用方式、应用前景，提出了秋色叶树种选择应用的原则及应注意的问题．     

Choosing a home: how the scouts in a honey bee swarm perceive the completion of their group decision making

This study considers the mystery of how the scout bees in a honey bee swarm know when they have completed their group decision making regarding the swarm's new nest site. More specifically, we investigated how the scouts sense when it is appropriate for them to begin producing the worker piping signals that stimulate their swarm-mates to prepare for the flight to their new home. We tested two hypotheses: "consensus sensing," the scouts noting when all the bees performing waggle dances are advertising just one site; and "quorum sensing," the scouts noting when one site is being visited by a sufficiently large number of scouts. Our test involved monitoring four swarms as they discovered, recruited to, and chose between two nest boxes and their scouts started producing piping signals. We found that a consensus among the dancers was neither necessary nor sufficient for the start of worker piping, which indicates that the consensus sensing hypothesis is false. We also found that a buildup of 10–15 or more bees at one of the nest boxes was consistently associated with the start of worker piping, which indicates that the quorum sensing hypothesis may be true. In considering why the scout bees rely on reaching a quorum rather than a consensus as their cue of when to start preparing for liftoff, we suggest that quorum sensing may provide a better balance between accuracy and speed in decision making. In short, the bees appear to begin preparations for liftoff as soon as enough of the scout bees, but not all of them, have approved of one of the potential nest sites.

加速遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

提出了一般非线性自然灾害模型参数优化的一种通用的数值方法———加速遗传算法,分析了该算法控制参数的优化特性,总结出了这些参数的简便设置技术,并给出了它在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用实例。该方法可广泛应用于各种自然灾害模型的优化问题。     

化学氧化-混凝法处理废纸再生造纸废水动态实验

采用 70L/h的装置进行化学氧化法处理废纸造纸废水动态实验。结果表明 ,动态实验的处理效果和操作条件与静态实验基本相符。在KMnO4 加量为 10～ 13mg/L、氧化时间为 2 5min、混凝剂A加量为 16 0～ 2 5 0mg/L、混凝剂B为 5 7～ 6 2mg/L时 ,装置出水CODCr降至 6 0～ 70mg/L、CODCr去除率高达 90 5 %～ 93 6 % ,水质优于国家一级排放标准 (GB35 44 92 )。实验得到了废水在沉降器中的沉降曲线