Can incomplete information lead to under-exploitation in the commons?

This paper analyzes the protection of a common pool resource (CPR) through the management of information. Specifically, we examine an entry deterrence model between an incumbent perfectly informed about the initial stock of a CPR and an uninformed potential entrant. In our model, the appropriation of the CPR by the incumbent reduces both players' future profits from exploiting the resource. In the case of complete information, we show that the incumbent operating in a high-stock common pool overexploits the CPR during the first period since it does not internalize the negative external effect that its first-period exploitation imposes on the entrant's future profits. This inefficiency, however, is absent when the commons totally regenerate across periods. Under incomplete information, we identify an additional form of inefficiency. In particular, the incumbent operating in a low-stock CPR underexploits the resource in order to signal the low available stock to potential entrants, deterring entry.     

甲苯池火灾热辐射数值模拟

文中用CFD技术对甲苯池火灾进行数值模拟,首先对甲苯火焰进行数值计算,得到在稳定的横向风条件下,甲苯燃烧的峰温、产物组分、瞬时速度等火焰特征参数以及其空间分布情况：火焰温度的最高点在对称面y=0上,最高温度为1778K,火焰倾斜角度为26°（与竖直方向夹角）,火焰高为22.5m。然后应用CFD软件F luent对池火灾进行热辐射模拟,模拟结果表明：对于锰钢材料、内径为20m甲苯储罐,稳态有风池火灾情况下,相邻两储罐之间安全距离在上风向为59m,下风向为72m。由于描述燃烧过程和湍流情况的数学物理模型还不太完善、对大气状况的简化等原因,结果偏保守,文中对此进行了分析讨论。此项研究为CFD技术研究碳氢化合物火灾的一个尝试。     

液化天然气场站事故定量风险评价方法研究

液化天然气（LNG）具有低温、易挥发、易燃、易爆的特性,其场站安全问题凸显。研究结合某LNG汽车加注站加注枪或管道LNG溢出的可能性事故,对事故发生概率及后果进行定量分析,其中事故后果的确定采用DEGAD IS和LNGF ire3模型。文章结合相关文献提供的伤害准则数据,得出人员受伤等级和死亡率,进而确定事故造成的个人风险值。与英国、荷兰等国家和机构制定的个人风险标准进行比较,所得的个人风险大大低于标准极限值,同时表明将5kW/m2作为安全距离临界热辐射强度的合理性。     

Influence of welding speed and power on residual stress during gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) of thin sections with constant heat input: A study using numerical simulation and experimental validation

The temperature distribution and residual stresses for a GTAW circumferential butt joint of AISI 304 stainless steel using numerical simulation have been evaluated. For evaluation of weld induced residual stresses, the analysis of heat source fitting was carried out with heat inputs ranging from 200 to 500 J/mm to arrive at optimal heat input for obtaining proper weld penetration and heat affected zone (HAZ). For this chosen heat input, the influence of different weld speeds and powers on the temperature distribution and the residual stresses is studied. The heat source analysis revealed the best choice of heat input as 300 J/mm. The residual stresses on the inner and outer surfaces, and along the radial direction were computed. Increase in temperature distribution as well as longitudinal and circumferential residual stresses was observed with the increase in weld speed and power. The validity of the results obtained from numerical simulation is demonstrated with full scale shop floor welding experiments.     

有机无机肥长期配施对果园土壤碳库及温室气体排放的影响

有机肥的施用可以提高土壤总有机碳和活性有机碳含量,在改善土壤质量,提升土壤肥力方面有重要意义.设4个处理：不施肥（CK）、单施有机肥（M）、单施化肥（NPK）和有机无机肥配施（MNPK）,研究长期有机无机配施下土壤有机碳和其活性组分含量变化,分析不同施肥措施对温室气体排放的影响,并评估了土壤碳库管理指数的变化.结果表明,与CK处理相比,MNPK处理的土壤总有机碳（TOC）、微生物量碳（MBC）、可溶性有机碳（DOC）、易氧化有机碳（EOC）和颗粒有机碳（POC）含量分别增加了82.84%、66.30%、21.12%、93.28%和145.80%.NPK处理对土壤总有机碳和有机碳组分含量无显著差异.有机无机配施有利于提高土壤碳库活度指数（LI）、土壤碳库指数（CPI）和土壤碳库管理指数（CPMI）,LI和CPI的增加是CPMI增加的主要原因.相关分析表明土壤有机碳组分和CPMI与温室气体排放呈显著正相关关系;有机无机配施增加了CO₂累积排放量和增温潜势（GWP）,但却能够降低温室气体排放强度（GHGI）;MNPK处理产量最高,为56365 kg ·hm^-2,较CK处理（29073 kg ·hm^-2）提高了93.87%.因此,旱地苹果园有机无机肥配施,可促进有机碳的累积,稳定土壤碳库,更有利于果园的可持续发展.     

增温施肥对稻麦农田土壤有机碳及其活性组分的影响

农田是重要的陆地生态系统土壤碳库和作物生长的有机养分库.为明确气候变暖对稻麦轮作农田土壤碳库的影响,利用田间开放式增温平台,分析了增温、施肥和其交互作用对土壤有机碳和其活性组分的影响,并评估了土壤碳库管理指数的变化.结果表明,增温、施肥对土壤有机碳含量和其活性有机碳组分的影响均无显著交互作用.增温增加了土壤有机碳含量,且总有机碳(TOC)和惰性有机碳(ROC)含量差异显著.与不增温对照相比,增温处理的TOC、 ROC和活性有机碳(LOC)含量分别增加了7.72%、7.42%和10.11%.土壤微生物量碳(MBC)含量的增加(20.4%)和颗粒有机碳(POC)含量的降低(36.51%)可能是增温下土壤有机碳含量变化的主要原因.增温对土壤可溶性有机碳(DOC)含量无显著影响,但显著降低了其可溶性微生物副产物组分含量(41.89%).结果同时表明,施肥对土壤有机碳含量均无显著影响,但显著降低了活性碳组分的DOC和POC含量,增加了MBC含量.与不施肥对照相比,施肥处理的土壤DOC和POC含量分别降低了35.44%和28.33%,MBC含量增加了33.38%.此外,施肥有增加可溶性有机物中人为...     

Evolution of Sustainable Carbon Cycling Processes in China

Abstract

This report summarizes the surveys on carbon inventories and initiatives on sustainable carbon cycling taken by RCEES. The first part of this report deals with the concept of sustainable carbon cycling, the historical evolution of carbon cycling processes in China, carbon pool enhancement, value addition, carbon sequestration and carbon balance. The second part covers the modeling of carbon dynamics, emission inventories of various carbon-containing greenhouse gases and their potential abatement measures.     

Cancer risk assessment from exposure to trihalomethanes in tap water and swimming pool water

We investigated the concentration of trihalomethanes （THMs） in tap water and swimming pool water in the area of the Nakhon Path- om Municipality during the period April 2005-March 2006. The concentrations of total THMs, chloroform, bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane and bromoform in tap water were 12.70-41.74, 6.72-29.19, 1.12-11.75, 0.63-3.55 and 0.08-3.40 μg/L, respectively, whereas those in swimming pool water were 26.15-65.09, 9.50-36.97, 8.90-18.01, 5.19-22.78 and ND-6.56 μg/L, respectively. It implied that the concentration of THMs in swimming pool water was higher than those in tap water, particularly, brominated-THMs. Both tap water and swimming pool water contained concentrations of total THMs below the standards of the World Health Organization （WHO）, European Union （EU） and the United States Environmental Protection Agency （USEPA） phase Ⅰ, but 1 out of 60 tap water samples and 60 out of 72 swimming pool water samples contained those over the Standard of the USEPA phase Ⅱ. From the two cases of cancer risk assessment including Case Ⅰ Non-Swimmer and Case Ⅱ Swimmer, assessment of cancer risk of nonswimmers from exposure to THMs at the highest and the average concentrations was 4.43×10^-5 and 2.19×10^-5, respectively, which can be classified as acceptable risk according to the Standard of USEPA. Assessment of cancer risk of swimmers from exposure to THMs at the highest and the average concentrations was 1.47×10^-3 and 7.99×10^-4, respectively, which can be classified as unacceptable risk and needs to be improved. Risk of THMs exposure from swimming was 93.9%-94.2% of the total risk. Cancer risk of THMs concluded from various routes in descending order was： skin exposure while swimming, gastro-intestinal exposure from tap water intake, and skin exposure to tap water and gastro-intestinal exposure while swimming. Cancer risk from skin exposure while swimming was 94.18% of the total cancer risk.     

Importance of deepening integration of crime and conservation sciences

Conservation crime is a globally distributed societal problem. Conservation crime science, an emerging interdisciplinary field, has the potential to help address this problem. However, its utility depends on serious reflection on the transposition of crime science approaches to conservation contexts, which may differ in meaningful ways from traditional crime contexts. We considered the breadth of crime science approaches being used in conservation as well as the depth of crime science integration in conservation. We used the case of sea cucumber (Holothuria floridana, Isostichopus badionotus) trafficking in Mexico as an example of why the interdisciplinarity of crime and conservation sciences should be deepened and how integration can help ideate new solutions. We first conducted a review of literature to capture the range of interdisciplinarity applications. We identified 6 crime science approaches being applied to the conservation contexts of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; wildlife and plant crime; and illegal logging. We then compared this knowledge base to the case of illegal sea cucumber fishing in Mexico. We identified 5 challenges in the application of these approaches to conservation contexts: the relative diffusion of harms and victims in conservation crimes; scalar mismatches in crime, authority, and the conservation issue itself; interactions between legal and illegal networks; communities and their authority to define and control crime; and the role of natural science in the rule of law. Considering these 5 factors may enhance the depth of interdisciplinarity between crime and conservation sciences. Nurturing interdisciplinary crime and conservation science will expand innovation and help accelerate successful risk management programs and other policy agendas.     

秸秆连续还田配施化肥对稻-油轮作土壤碳库及作物产量的影响

依据田间连续7 a秸秆还田定位试验,探讨秸秆还田配施化肥对巢湖地区农田土壤剖面（0~20、20~50和50~80 cm）的土壤总有机碳（TOC）、可溶性有机碳（DOC）、颗粒有机碳（POC）、活性有机碳（LOC）、碳库管理指数（CPMI）和作物产量的影响.试验设置无秸秆还田+无施肥（CK）、常规施肥（F）、秸秆还田+常规施肥（SF1）和秸秆还田+80%常规施肥（SF2）这4个处理,分析不同土层土壤总有机碳和组分含量、CPMI和油菜-水稻产量的变化规律.结果表明,以CK为参考,常规施肥和秸秆还田配施化肥均提高了垂直剖面土壤总有机碳和组分的含量,且不同土层土壤总有机碳和组分的含量随土层深度增加而逐渐降低.在0~20 cm土层,与F处理相比,SF1和SF2处理显著提高TOC、DOC、POC和LOC的含量,增幅分别为：14.23%~28.97%、7.86%~27.01%、16.46%~24.24%和5.89%~6.64%（P<0.05）;在20~50 cm土层,SF1较F处理的TOC和LOC的含量显著增加9.43%和8.34%（P<0.05）,SF2较F处理的DOC和POC的含量显著增加17.51%和65.83%（P<0.05）;在50~80 cm土层,各处理间土壤总有机碳和组分的含量均无显著差异.秸秆还田配施化肥对土壤碳库管理指数影响显著,SF1较F处理显著提高0~50 cm土层的CPMI,而F处理的CPMI在50~80 cm土层最大,但各处理间均无显著差异.秸秆还田配施化肥对作物产量具有显著提升作用,且SF1处理的产量最高,SF1较F处理的水稻、油菜和周年产量分别显著增加6.19%、7.67%和6.54%（P<0.05）.总的来说,稻-油轮作模式下秸秆还田配施化肥对提高巢湖地区土壤碳库、土壤肥力和作物产量具有重要意义.