Sustaining Economic Welfare: Estimating Changes in Total and Per Capita Wealth

Genuine saving measures the real change in0 total wealth, factoring in the depreciation of produced assets, depletion of natural resources, pollution damages, and expenditures on education. This paper presents a theoretical framework for measuring changes in wealth in total and per capita terms, establishes the link between savings measures and prospects for social welfare, and provides summary empirical estimates of the savings measures. China excepted, the majority of countries below median income are distinguished by apparent declines in total wealth per capita.     

论人口——经济系统的综合研究

研究人口——经济系统,首先从人口系统着手,并分别对各子系统进行分析和综合。对人口系统的研究着重于控制数量、强调人口素质,尤其是要求人口文化素质对科学技术转化生产力能够起到保证作用,其最终目的是促进社会经济的发展。     

资源环境与我国可持续发展

本文从资源、环境和人地关系的角度探讨我国的可持续发展问题 ,分析了影响我国可持续发展因素 ,指出中华民族的人口素质是我国可持续发展的关键 ,阐明科教兴国是我国可持续发展的必由之路     

Estimation of the maximal population frequency of “alien” biotypes taking into account a priori data

A method is described for calculating the probability that the percentage of alien biotypes is higher than a specified threshold (e.g., 5%) in a population in which a certain number of alien biotypes has been found preliminarily. The method is based on the Bayesian approach; it assumes that the researcher has preliminary (a priori) information on the frequency of these biotypes. This a priori information makes it possible to estimate the aforementioned probability more accurately than is possible with the use of the standard binomial estimation. The method is illustrated by the results of the estimation of cultivar purity in batches of stock and foundation seeds of spring barley with the use of protein markers.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 106–109.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Zhivotovsky, Pomortsev, Lyalina, Kalabushkin, Pukhalskii.     

Gradient Genogeographic Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L. Populations in Europe

Gradients of Nei's genetic distances between 15 samples of Pinus sylvestris L. trees were analyzed along three submeridional transects, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean and Transcaucasia. As a result, distinct chorogenetic differentiation was revealed between the populations of this species growing in climatically specific regions of northern and southern Europe. Considerable Nei's distances (DN = 0.045–0.056) and their gradients, combined with differences in stable phenotypic characters (the composition of monoterpenes and morphological parameters of cones) determined at the Pyrenean and Caucasian mountain borders, suggest that the P. sylvestris species structure includes two South Eurasian subspecies, the Pyrenean P. sylvestris L., ssp. iberica Svoboda and the Transcaucasian P. sylvestris L., ssp. hamata (Stev.) Fomin.     

我国人口问题与社会持续发展

本文分析了我国人口的主要特点和人口问题，指出人口问题已成为我国社会、经济发展的重要制约因素，进而论述了人口与资源、环境、经济协调发展的基本原理和宏观对策     

控制人口 保护资源 为子孙留下蓝天碧水绿地

建国40多年来,淄博市的国民经济和社会事业迅速发展,已经成为一个以重工业为主体的重要工业城市。同时,随着经济规模的迅速扩大,人口、资源与环境三大问题越来越突出。面对这样的市情,淄博市采取各种措施,突出重点,集中力量主攻薄弱环节,严格控制人口增长,保护资源,综合整治污染,取得了很大成效,初步走上了经济和社会事业与人口、资源、环境协调发展的轨道。     

Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental‐scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta‐analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post‐glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post‐glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.