人口与经济发展对植被的影响研究

植被是陆地表面主要的覆盖物，也是许多地球系统过程的重要变量。人类活动对植被的影响在区域尺度上是显著的。以重庆市为例，使用滑动平均和SG滤波对SPOT/VGT NDVI时间序列数据进行了平滑处理，结合GDP和人口栅格化数据，从时间序列和空间相关场两个方面分析了植被与人类活动因子之间的时空相关性。结果表明，从1998到2005年，植被的分布和生长状况并没有随GDP和人口的持续增加而增加。在时间序列上，植被覆盖与GDP和人口之间总体上呈显著的负相关关系；在空间上，这种相关关系表现出了较强的异质性。空间相关场表明：较强的负相关主要发生在相对发达的主城区周围，反映了快速的经济发展和城市化使得植被面积和生产力降低；然而在偏远的山区，由于经济落后同时植被覆盖较少，出现了正相关。     

Impact of Forestry Practices on Fitness Correlates and Population Productivity in an Open-Nesting Bird Species

Abstract:  In the boreal forests of Fennoscandia, over 99% of forest area has been altered by forestry practices, which has created forest with age structures and stand characteristics that differ from primary forest stands. Although many researchers have investigated how forestry affects species abundance, few have assessed how forestry practices affect fitness correlates of species living in altered habitats, and this has negatively affected management efforts. We experimentally addressed the effect of standard forestry practices on fitness correlates of an open-nesting, long-lived bird species typical to boreal forests of Eurasia, the Siberian Jay ( Perisoreus infaustus ). We used a before-after comparison of reproductive data on the level of territories and found that standard forestry practices had a strong negative effect on the breeding success of jays. Both partial thinning of territories and partial clearcutting of territories reduced future breeding success by a factor of 0.35. Forestry practices reduced territory occupancy. Thus, over the 15 years of the study, productivity of the affected population declined over 50% as a result of territory abandonment and reduced breeding success. Results of previous studies on Siberian Jays suggest that the strong effect of forest thinning on fitness is explained by the fact that most common predators of nests and adults are visually oriented and thus thinning makes prey and nests more visible to predators. The consequences of thinning we observed are likely to apply to a wide range of species that rely on understory to provide visual protection from predators. Thus, our results are important for the development of effective conservation management protocols and for the refinement of thinning practices.     

Space-time analysis of the changing patterns of population pressure on the ecological environment in China

This paper examines the temporal change and spatial variation of population pressure on the ecological environment in China. We have collected sufficient data from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative areas in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. Using a geographic information system (GIS) and relevant models, we analyzed the trend of the population pressure on ecological environment and the change of the gravity center of ecological environment quality. We conclude that: (1) generally, population pressure on the ecological environment in China was becoming higher during 1990–2010, especially in some areas where the population and environment were in serious imbalance and the ecological environment experienced severe pollution; (2) during a certain period, population pressure on the ecological environment was becoming lower in some areas, but the ecological environment was getting worse; (3) the areas with super-high population pressure on the ecological environment were Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai; (4) the gravity center of population pressure on the ecological environment and the center of ecological environment quality move differently during the study time period, but the general trend was similar – both of them were moving from west to east. Based on the analysis, this paper also provides some policy suggestions on the control of ecological environment quality.     

基于DMSP/OLS数据的江苏省城镇人口空间分异研究

人口空间分异研究是区域协调发展的基础,便捷准确地获取城镇人口全局和局域的空间信息,对于合理制定区域人口、经济和社会发展政策具有重要意义。在DMSP/OLS(夜间灯光)数据和人口数据之间的定量关联基础上,模拟出格网尺度上江苏省2012年人口密度,采用人口集中指数、空间变差函数识别人口分布的空间格局并探讨区别于行政单元尺度的人口格局形成机理。区域层面,江苏省人口空间分异呈现苏北地区"低密度点状"分布,苏南、苏中为"高密度面状"分布并存格局。城镇层面,江苏省人口空间分布结构具有4种类型,H-H型地区人口各向差异性最强,网格单元内随机变异最小;H-L型人口各向差异性最小,网格单元内随机变异较大;L-L型人口轴向均质化特征明显,网格单元随机变异较小;L-H型空间各向差异性较小,网格单元的随机变异最大。结果表明,基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据反演而得到的人口格网模型具有巨大潜力,结合变差函数进行拟合分析可定量地刻画城镇内部人口分布的空间异质性特征。     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.     

Changing Drivers of Deforestation and New Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract: Over the past 50 years, human agents of deforestation have changed in ways that have potentially important implications for conservation efforts. We characterized these changes through a meta‐analysis of case studies of land‐cover change in the tropics. From the 1960s to the 1980s, small‐scale farmers, with state assistance, deforested large areas of tropical forest in Southeast Asia and Latin America. As globalization and urbanization increased during the 1980s, the agents of deforestation changed in two important parts of the tropical biome, the lowland rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia. Well‐capitalized ranchers, farmers, and loggers producing for consumers in distant markets became more prominent in these places and this globalization weakened the historically strong relationship between local population growth and forest cover. At the same time, forests have begun to regrow in some tropical uplands. These changing circumstances, we believe, suggest two new and differing strategies for biodiversity conservation in the tropics, one focused on conserving uplands and the other on promoting environmental stewardship in lowlands and other areas conducive to industrial agriculture.     

Applying the Declining Population Paradigm: Diagnosing Causes of Poor Reproduction in the Marbled Murrelet

Abstract:  We identified six approaches to diagnosing causes of population declines and illustrate the use of the most general one ("multiple competing hypotheses") to determine which of three candidate limiting factors—food availability, nesting site availability, and nest predation—were responsible for the exceptionally poor reproduction of Marbled Murrelets (  Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in central California. We predicted how six attributes of murrelet demography, behavior, and physiology should be affected by the candidate limiting factors and tested predictions with field data collected over 2 years. The average proportion of breeders, as estimated with radiotelemetry, was low (0.31) and varied significantly between years: 0.11 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2001. Murrelets spent significantly more time foraging in 2000 than in 2001, suggesting that low food availability limited breeding in 2000. In 2001, 50% of radio-marked murrelets nested and 67% of females were in breeding condition, suggesting that enough nest sites existed for much of the population to breed. However, rates of nest failure and nest predation were high (0.84 and 0.67–0.81, respectively) and few young were produced, even when a relatively high proportion of murrelets bred. Thus, we suggest that reproduction of Marbled Murrelets in central California is limited by food availability in some years and by nest predation in others, but apparently is not limited by availability of nesting sites. The multiple-competing-hypotheses approach provides a rigorous framework for identifying causes of population declines because it integrates multiple types of data sets and can incorporate elements of other commonly used approaches.     

The Frequency of Micronuclei among Newborns from Kragujevac, Central Serbia, after NATO Bombing in the Spring of 1999

Kragujevac, as an important industrial and economic center of the region, is now placed on the top of the list of environmentally endangered cities in our country. The aim of this biomonitoring study was to evaluate cytogenetic damage in a sample of newborns from Kragujevac after contamination of the environment entailed by the intensive bombing of the industrial zone of this city in the spring of 1999. The frequency of micronuclei (MN) in peripheral blood lymphocytes in a total of 61 phenotypically healthy newborns was analyzed before and after the NATO bombing. Analysis of micronuclei has been performed using the cytokinesis-block technique (CB MN test). Average MN frequency in lymphocytes of newborns before the bombing (N = 25) was 5.77 ± 0.85/1000 analyzed cells. After the bombing (N = 36), the average frequency of MN increased by a factor of 1.4 (8.11 ± 0.85), compared to the control frequency before the bombing. Statistical difference (p < 0.05) was established by Student's t-test. Our data suggest that such changes in genetic material were a direct consequence of contamination of the living environment.