Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

混凝法深度处理印染废水中试研究

采用"高效混凝沉淀-过滤"深度处理工艺处理印染废水二级生化出水,并将混凝沉淀污泥回流.实验结果表明,混凝剂聚合氯化铝加入量为160 mg/L时,COD去除率平均可达34.6%,TP去除率平均达到87.9%,平均出水TP为0.3 mg/L.气相色谱-质谱分析和元素分析结果表明混凝沉淀工艺对有机物和TP的去除效果良好.     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

1976-2005年唐山地区降水变化规律及干旱预测

利用唐山市1976-2005年各县年降水序列,分析了该市降水的空间分布规律和时间变化特点。采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,对各县分别建立了GM（1,1）模型,进行未来25年唐山市各站的干旱年预测。利用残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验对各模型分别进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对唐山市各县未来的干旱年进行预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

Identifying the largest individual sample value from a two-way composite sampling design

Composite sampling techniques for identifying the largest individual sample value seem to be cost effective when the composite samples are internally homogeneous. However, since it is not always possible to form homogeneous composite samples, these methods can lead to higher costs than expected. In this paper we propose a two-way composite sampling design as a way to improve on the cost effectiveness of the methods available to identify the largest individual sample value.     

循环流化床锅炉烟气脱硫除尘技术改造

对承德市热电厂CG35／3．82－MX型循环流化术锅炉的脱硫除尘系统进行了改造,解决了原水膜除尘器效率低,烟法排放严重超标的问题,取得了良好的环境效益,社会效益和经济效益。     

上海青浦地区大气降水的化学特征

利用上海青浦地区2003—2014年观测的大气降水监测资料,分析该区域12 a以来大气降水的酸化程度、化学组成特征,探讨降水中化学成分的不同来源及相对贡献。结果表明:降水pH年均值为4.43~6.33,酸雨频率为2.6%~86.8%,降水酸化程度大致经历了明显恶化和波动变化2个阶段。降水电导率年均值为1.77~4.01 m S/m,呈下降趋势。降水中各离子雨量加权平均当量浓度顺序为SO_4~(2-)NH_4~+Ca~(2+)NO_3~-Cl~-Na~+Mg~(2+)F-K~+,SO_4~(2-)、NH+4、Ca~(2+)和NO_3~-是降水中的主要离子,占离子总量的83.0%;降水类型由硫酸型向硫酸和硝酸混合型转变。降水离子中的二次组分SO_4~(2-)、NO_3~-和NH_4~+绝大部分来源于人为源,Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)和K+主要来自于土壤源和人为源的贡献,Cl~-主要来自海洋源,同时人为源的影响也不可忽视。     

长湖流域水质时空分布特征及影响因子

利用2009—2014年长湖5个水质监测点数据,采用时间序列法分析了长湖水质的时间变化规律,采用相关性分析法,分析了流域水污染的影响因子。结果表明:在时间上,长湖水污染物质量浓度季节变化明显,COD、TN、NH3-N均为7、9月较低,1、3月较高,丰水期水质好于枯水期。入湖地区TP质量浓度7月达最高值,且7月份入湖地区的桥河口、关沮口的NH3-N、TN含量稍高于5月。空间上,西北部入湖地区水质劣于湖心及东南部出湖地区。工业、生活等点源污水,以耕地为主的农业非点源以及天然降水量和径流量是影响水质的主要因素,入湖排污量、降水量和径流量与长湖水质呈显著相关关系(P0.05)。     

上海浦东国际机场飞机尾气排放对机场附近空气质量的影响

统计2012年10月和11月浦东机场飞机机型和航班架次,根据各类飞机起降的污染物排放设计工作参数,估算出2012年浦东机场飞机起降时排放的NO2、SO2、CO和HC的估算值。利用浦东新区13个空气监测子站二氧化氮和二氧化硫数据绘制等值线图。结果显示,机场所在的江镇点位和祝桥点位二氧化氮浓度变化受飞机影响很大,而飞机排放的二氧化硫对两个点位的影响可以忽略不计。建议采用改进飞机滑行路线、探讨征收飞机碳排放税等措施减少飞机尾气排放对空气质量的影响。