飞机飞行振动预计技术研究

介绍了飞机飞行振动的主要来源和特征,分析了传统预计方法的不足,针对飞机飞行振动与高度、马赫数和攻角等飞行参数呈非线性关系的特点,提出了基于BP神经网络的飞行振动预计新技术,建立了预计模型,通过8组建模样本训练网络,确定了预计模型中的各个参数值。预计结果和实测飞机飞行振动信号比较分析表明,该方法预计精度高,验证了BP神经网络预计飞机飞行振动的可行性。     

气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响研究进展

准确预测气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响趋势对于科学认识气候变化对生物多样性的影响和对策制定具有重要的意义。近年来,气候变化对植物及植被分布影响研究在我国广泛展开。文章对这些研究所采用的气候情景、预测方法和气候变化等对植物及植被分布的影响趋势进行了总结分析,对存在的问题进行了讨论,对未来的趋势提出了若干展望。总体上,目前所用气候情景比较单一、不同预测方法比较研究不够,对土壤和生物因素考虑不充分、涉及植物种类太少。气候变化将使一些植物分布范围减少、甚至消失,而使另一些植物分布范围则会扩大。未来研究应加强气候情景改进和不同方法的比较研究,充分考虑土壤和生物等因子、加强预测方法检验,同时开展植物物种多样性和丰富度对气候变化响应方面的研究。     

三维地质建模及可视化在危机矿山找矿中的应用研究——以沂南金矿为例

随着21世纪工业的快速发展,人们对矿产资源的需求日益扩大,然而我国一大批矿山却面临着严重的资源危机,解决危机矿山的根本是加大矿山周边和矿山深部的找矿工作。同时,随着地学研究和勘查工作的不断深入,积累了海量的地学数据,矿产勘查己进入信息找矿的新时代。矿山三维地质建模与可视化技术研究,是"数字矿山"的核心组成部分,是现代矿山信息化研究的热点和重点。本文从三维地质建模的概念出发,探讨了基于钻孔数据的矿山三维地质建模及可视化的一般过程,包括地质数据库的建立,实体模型、品位块体模型的创建等,通过在沂南金矿成矿预测研究中的具体应用,探讨了三维地质建模及可视化应用于危机矿山成矿地质条件分析及大比例尺成矿预测中的过程和方法,为矿区成矿规律的研究和危机矿山的成矿预测提供了有效的技术手段,大大地提高矿产勘查的效率,促进了我国矿山信息化的建设。     

锑矿区酸性岩排水产生潜力预测研究

酸性岩排水(ARD)潜力预测研究对于预防、控制和治理金属矿山环境污染问题具有重要意义。本文应用酸碱估算法(ABA)和净产酸测试法(NAG),对贵州独山半坡锑矿区的19个代表性样品进行了产酸潜力评价,并应用各种分类标准对样品进行产酸能力分类。研究结果表明,所有的(废)矿石样品都具有产酸潜力(PAF),需要对(废)矿石进行有效的防控,以阻止酸性岩排水的产生。围岩样品的产酸潜力取决于采样点,尾矿样品没有产酸潜力(NAF)。ABA和NAG测试结果表明NAPP和NAGpH分类评价法适用于本研究区内样品ARD的预测评估。     

城市垃圾填埋场项目环境影响评价工作探讨

垃圾填埋场作为环保手段的同时,其排放的污染物也对周边环境产生长久的负面影响,在建设前进行环境影响评价,分析论证环保措施的有效性,可以最大限度地将环境影响控制在一定范围内。结合实际案例,从污染源分析、环保措施论证、环境影响预测等几个方面对垃圾填埋场项目环境影响评价的几个重要方面进行论述。     

合成氨厂NH3无组织排放的环境影响及污染防治措施

以某合成氨厂为例,预测分析不同的气象条件下NH3无组织排放所造成的环境影响,并提出了污染防治措施。     

侧流化学磷回收强化生物除磷的模拟预测与试验验证

为了强化污水中生物除磷作用,本研究通过模拟预测与实验室试验验证了厌氧上清液侧流化学磷沉淀与回收对强化生物除磷的促进作用.模拟预测与试验结果表明,在进水COD/P=37.5工况下,当侧流比增加至30%时,通过化学磷沉淀（调节pH＞9.0）可使出水中TP浓度从碳源抑制时的＜6.0 mg·L-1（以P计）下降至≤1.0 mg·L-1（以P计）,同时可回收进水中P负荷的64%.经验证与校正后的TUD数学模型模拟预测有着与试验结果近乎一致的效果.因此,数学模拟技术完全有可能取代中间试验过程而直接将小试结果放大至工程应用.     

Investigating the effectiveness of safety countermeasures at highway-rail at-grade crossings using a competing risk model

Introduction: Highway-rail at-grade crossings (HRGCs) are critical locations where a railway and a roadway intersect with one another. Crashes at those locations often result in fatalities and economic and social damages due to the impacts on both road and rail users. The main purpose of countermeasures at HRGCs is to permit safe and efficient rail and highway operations. Method: Countermeasures at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs) considered in this study include all traffic control devices and other warning and barrier devices at or on approaches to crossings. In general, active devices are commonly accepted as more effective countermeasures than passive devices. However, many of the previous effectiveness studies are either at the project level or were conducted without considering the before-improvement condition. This study focuses on the network-level marginal effectiveness of countermeasures on crash rate and severity levels during the 29-year study period from 1990 to 2018 by fully considering before-improvement control levels. A competing risk model (CRM) is able to accommodate the competing nature of crash severities as multiple outcomes from the same event of interest, which is crash occurrence in this study. Subsequently, CRM is used in this study as an integrated one-step estimation approach that investigates both crash frequency and severity likelihood over time. Results: The study findings indicate that adding audible devices to crossings already equipped with gates will result in a considerable annual decline in crash occurrence likelihood (0.25%). The same device installed at crossings already controlled by gates and flashing lights results in less reduction in crash occurrence likelihood of 0.14%. Moreover, adding a stop sign to the active crossing controls of gates, standard flashing lights, and audible devices will lead to a decrease in the probability of crash occurrence and severe crashes (injury and fatal). However, adding stop signs to crossings equipped only with crossbucks will increase the crash occurrence.     

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey

Objective: Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage–only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey.

Methods: In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle–vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R).

Results: It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios.

Conclusions: This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.     

温岭市东环高架交通对声环境的影响评价与预测

相较于一般的城市道路,城市高架具有通行能力大、行车速度高、车辆行驶状态复杂的特点,噪声污染极为突出.温岭市东环高架穿越温岭市区,是进出市区唯一的快速通道.以温岭市东环高架道路为例,对其进行实地监测从而了解其声环境,同时运用BREEZE NOISE软件模拟其噪声污染状况.根据监测模拟结果,从合理进行道路规划、装设声屏障和铺设低噪声路到提出高架复合道路噪声污染控制的对策建议.