水库下游洪灾淹没损失的估算

本文为评价水库的防洪效益，探讨了水库下游保护区内洪水灾害淹没损失的估算方法，并通过实例进行了检验。这对水库的防洪规划及其它防洪效益定量估算问题有很大的意义。     

山东日照市东港区震害损失动态初步预测

本文以山东省日照市东港区为例，以其１９９０年基础数据和１９９０年静态震害人员、财产损失预测为基础，以未来５年预测的房屋、人口、财产变化结果为变量，给出了动态震害人员、财产损失预测的方法及其初步预测结果。该方法还可以根据房屋、人口、财产的实际变化情况，实现“滚动式”的震害人员、财产损失预测。     

城市地震灾害预测的基本内容和减灾决策过程

本文研究了下列四个问题：（１）对我国现有建筑进行了易损性分类，并定义了一个区分易损性类别的定量指标；（２）按目前现有建筑建立了各类易损性结构的震害矩阵和它们与未来若干年后的震害矩阵的关系；（３）分析并了种类易损性结构的地震损失率；（４）提出了一个人员死亡的估计方法和确定减灾方案的决策方法。     

煤矿安全系统的计算机统计控制方法

煤矿安全系统在稳定状态，安全监测设备的数据符合正态分布。无事故发生时，控制图表示监测数据样本均值和极差的数据应以９９．７％的概率落在控制区内。运用统计学理论和方法分析、控制均值和极差点的位置及点间关系，可以达到预测和控制安全系统事故的发生和发展的目的。     

A SEMI-DISTRIBUTED ADAPTIVE MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km², the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model     

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD RESPONSES FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH1

ABSTRACT The flooding conditions in the basin of the Red River of the North are reviewed in terms of the accuracy of the flood forecasts and the response of both the floodplain occupants and government agencies to these forecasts. The flood prediction methods in Canada and the United States are compared. The accuracy of these prediction measures for the major floods in recent history is reviewed. The differences between the way in which the American and Canadian authorities approach the flood emergencies are outlined. The accuracy of the forecasts are plotted against a number of parameters which reflect the efficiency of the flood fighting measures initiated by those flood forecasts. The significant features of these plots are discussed.     

曲靖市环境噪声达标规划

对曲靖市城区进行了环境噪声功能区划分；分析了曲靖市噪声污染现状和趋势、噪声污染原因，对噪声污染结果进行了预测；分析了环境噪声达标规划，提出了噪声污染控制方案。     

霍山震群的前兆意义研究

本文利用1970年以来霍山地区14次震群资料,对其单项及综合指标作了计算和研究,根据《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》及其它文献,判断其前兆性.另外,对前兆震群与未来中强震距离和分布区域以及间隔时间进行了统计,并对其预报效能作出评估,为安徽及华东地区中强地震震情判定提供一个较科学的依据.     

建筑施工振动环境影响评价

讨论了建筑施工振动特点.提出在编制施工计划的同时编制预防建设施工振动的规划.推荐环境振动的预测方法.认为对于建筑施工振动进行环境影响评价是非常重要的.     

3S技术在灾害监测预测中的应用及展望

本文分析了现代灾害的特点及3S技术的发展,总结了国内外利用3S技术在灾害监测预警中应用的现状,探讨了未来3S技术在这一领域应用的趋势及重点研究问题.