应用GIS提高地震分析预报能力

简要介绍了地理信息系统中的空间分析功能 ,并以一些实例展示了其在地震分析预报中可能的用途。研究表明 ,地理信息系统不仅可以对数据和图形进行编辑、显示、查询、分类 ,它还有地图距离分析、面分析、局部统计、邻域分析等等强大的空间分析功能 ,而将这些功能用到地震预报中 ,则有可能得到一些新的思路 ,提出新的方法 ,提高地震分析预报水平。     

三峡库区巴阳移民新村库岸稳定性分析与塌岸预测

三峡工程全面蓄水在即,库水位周期性的变动必定引起大范围的塌岸。以巴阳移民新村库岸为例,选取典型剖面,根据饱和—非饱和渗流理论,应用GEO-SLOPE软件分析了水位变动条件下库岸渗流场变化,进一步分析了库岸稳定性的变化趋势,并选用卡丘金法和极限平衡搜索法对塌岸范围进行了预测。结果表明：在蓄水至145m1、56 m1、75 m及175 m骤降至145 m四种工况中,随着库水位的上升,库岸稳定性有下降的趋势,在库水从175m骤降至145 m时稳定系数最低,预测塌岸范围24.5 m和29.5 m,为移民区土地利用提供了科学的依据。     

淮河干流河南段水质预测模型试验研究

淮河干流在河南省境内总长417 km,随着区域经济的发展和人口的增长,淮河干流水环境质量形势不容乐观。根据水体扩散理论,建立了淮河干流水质预测相关模型,并进行了科学验证。对淮河干流河南段氨氮、化学需氧量衰减系数及富氧和耗氧系数4个项目开展现场试验及科学分析,为水资源保护规划中计算水体纳污能力、预测污染物浓度、制定污染物控制方案等提供坚实基础和技术支持。     

英国CRTN道路交通噪声预测模型在中国的适用性研究

基于道路交通噪声990 h监测数据,对英国CRTN模型中源强计算模型在中国的适用性进行了验证。试验结果表明,理论计算与实测结果之间平均仅相差0.57 dB（A）,CRTN源强预测模型在中国可以可靠地预测道路交通噪声。     

饮用水水源地防控与预警体系研究

根据全国饮用水水源地调查和现行政策法规,结合江苏省及泰州市饮用水水源地专项整治情况,全面分析了饮用水水源地防控和预警工作中存在的问题,借鉴国外饮用水水源地防控预警的特色做法,阐述了适合中国国情的饮用水水源防控及预警的十项保护措施。     

面向对象的公路地质灾害监测预报数据组织

进行公路潜在的地质灾害点监测预报对维护公路安全具有重要的意义。针对公路地质灾害受人为因素影响大,监测预报系统涉及数据面与类型多的特点,根据系统功能要求研究了以面向对象的方法组织系统数据,灾害预报的实质是对潜在灾害点所表现的各类信息进行综合评估,将预报所涉及的各类实体分为6个基类,依据基类内各类实体特点将各基类划分成几个子类,构建了基类实体之间的以及实体与属性之间关系模型,实现了各种类型数据的有机组织。     

Behavior of bensulfuron-methyl in an agricultural alkaline soil

A field experiment to determine the available bensulfuron-methyl (BSM) in the upper soil layer was conducted in an agricultural area in the South of Spain. To facilitate herbicide analysis, two application rates were employed, 200 g ha^?1 and 5 kg ha^?1. Samples of upper soil and soil solution were collected. Soil solution was sampled by means of metallic samplers, placed at a depth of 35 cm. In the plots receiving the lower dose ceramic suction, porous cups were also installed. Results from soil solution samples showed that the maximum BSM concentration was found after 8-10 days for the high irrigation supply (945 mm) and after 18-25 days for the lower irrigation regime (405 mm). The mathematical model FOCUSPELMO 1.1.1 was applied to interpret the data obtained in the field experiments. In general, there was a reasonable agreement between experimental and simulated data for soil samples, although the model did not acceptably predict herbicide concentrations in water soil samples. Ceramic cups sampled a higher soil water volume and more frequently than did the metallic samplers. However some variable results were attributed to preferential flow.     

Assessment of aquatic experimental versus predicted and extrapolated chronic toxicity data of four structural analogues

The present study was developed to assess the chronic toxicity predictions and extrapolations for a set of chlorinated anilines (aniline (AN), 4-chloroaniline (CA), 3,5-dichloroaniline (DCA) and 2,3,4-trichloroaniline (TCA)). Daphnia magna 21 d chronic experimental data was compared to the chronic toxicity predictions made by the US EPA ECOSAR QSAR tools and to acute-to-chronic extrapolations. Additionally, Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSDs) were constructed to assess the chronic toxicity variability among different species and to investigate the acute versus chronic toxicity in a multi-species context.Since chlorinated anilines are structural analogues with a designated polar narcotic mode of action, similar toxicity responses were assumed. However, rather large interchemical and interspecies differences in toxicity were observed. Compared to the other three test compounds, TCA exposure had a significantly larger impact on growth and reproduction of D. magna. Furthermore, this study illustrated that QSARs or a fixed ACR are not able to account for these interchemical and interspecies differences. Consequently, ECOSAR was found to be inadequate to predict the chronic toxicity of the anilines and the use of a fixed ACR (of 10) led to under of certain species. The experimental ACRs determined in D. magna were substantially different among the four aromatic amines (ACR of 32 for AN, 16.9 for CA, 5.7 for DCA and 60.8 for TCA). Furthermore, the SSDs illustrated that Danio rerio was rather insensitive to AN in comparison to another fish species, Phimphales promelas. It was therefore suggested that available toxicity data should be used in an integrative multi-species way, rather than using individual-based toxicity extrapolations. In this way, a relevant overview of the differences in species sensitivity is given, which in turn can serve as the basis for acute to chronic extrapolations.     

基于子模型的电子封装焊点寿命预测方法研究

在向无铅化过渡的过程中,封装材料与工艺改变所带来的最突出的问题之一就是无铅焊点的可靠性问题。由于焊点区非协调变形导致的热疲劳失效是电子封装焊点的主要失效形式。到目前为止,仍无公认的焊点寿命和可靠性的评价方法。本文采用统一型粘塑性本构模型描述SnAgCu焊点的变形行为,在对焊点可靠性分析的基础上采用基于能量的寿命模型进行焊点寿命预测;在有限元方面采用子模型的处理技术,并采用节点平均化以及体积平均化方法计算寿命模型相关参数。力图从理论方面和有限元处理技术方面改进以达到提高焊点寿命预测效率及预测精度的目的。     

北京城市水系水环境模拟及情景分析

城市水系是流域水环境管理中最为脆弱的控制点.针对城市水系水动力条件差、有机污染和富营养化严重的问题,应用QUAL2K模型模拟、预测城市水系水环境的时空变化,并在此基础上探讨北环水系水环境管理和污染防治的合理有效方案.结果显示,经过多次调整后的模型模拟的匹配度达到了0.9135,水温、溶解氧、COD、TN、TP和Chl-...