典型案例地下水污染模拟预测评估

针对典型案例地下水污染模拟预测评估,可以选取中国东北部某典型工业污染源,应用地下水有限差分软件Visual Modflow,在地下水水均衡计算的基础上,结合气象、地质、水文、水质等资料,建立了典型工业污染源地下水水流水质预测模型.研究了地下水运动规律及水中污染物迁移转化规律,预测出未来两年内的地下水流及水质变化情况,为当地政府提出地下水污染防治对策和措施提供了理论依据.这样可以利用中国东北部某典型工业污染源,为地下水的保护提供保障.     

海湾大桥施工隐患动态预测与双线控制研究

目前桥梁施工安全的研究,从宏观和微观两方面相结合的系统研究比较欠缺.根据大桥施工特点,从时间和空间角度,采取"线-点-面-点-面"分析方法,把桥梁建设的工艺过程看作线,具体的工艺看作点,各工艺的影响因素组成面,把每一影响因素看作点,各影响因素的影响指标组成面,以各工艺点为核心,对事故隐患进行全方位动态分析,结合计算机软...     

应用改进的数量化理论预测道路断面事故率

为准确预测道路断面的安全性,建立道路交通事故断面事故率模型。首先选定事故率作为微观预测目标,选取驾驶员的驾龄、车道数、平曲线半径、纵坡度、路面情况、路口路段类型、道路宽度7项因素作为主要影响因素,并且将各影响因素分为若干类目。在数量化理论的基础之上建立改进的数量化理论的道路断面事故率预测模型,最后以某国道222.888～377.387 km段作为算例进行计算,并选取事故多发段333.5～334.0 km处对模型进行具体应用。研究结果表明,对事故影响最大的是该路段中三枝交叉口,其次是3 a(含3 a)以下驾龄及四枝交叉口。     

矿区岩溶地表塌陷神经网络预测模型研究

针对矿区岩溶地表塌陷存在的非线性动力学特征,为更准确预测岩溶地质矿区地表塌陷区域分布,在分析研究某矿区岩溶地表塌陷机理及其影响因素基础上,确定矿区地表塌陷的影响因素,构建矿区岩溶地表塌陷BP神经网络非线性动力学预测模型。采集并分析某岩溶矿区大量岩溶地表塌陷历史数据,应用Matlab神经网络工具箱,采用构建的矿区岩溶地表塌陷BP神经网络预测模型,对上述矿区岩溶地表塌陷区域分布情况进行非线性预测。研究结果表明,采用训练的神经网络预测模型可以实现对矿区岩溶地表塌陷危险性的合理预测。     

城市重大危机事件演化的动力学模型研究

建立了城市重大危机事件的＂事件链＂,并分析了＂事件链＂中各状态的相互关系。基于SEIS传染病模型的思想,提出了一类城市重大危机事件的动力学模型。分别在不考虑外部因素对事件链的影响和考虑外部因素对事件链的影响的情况下,对事件从正常状态到危机状态沿时间的发展趋势和规律进行了分析,并对解进行Lyapunov稳定性分析以及计算机模拟仿真。研究表明：系统自身的修复能力和外部因素对系统的影响是控制危机事件的重要因素。     

异味污染评价与治理研究进展

本文对国内外异味污染评价技术,包括异味污染评价指标、采样技术和测定方法、异味污染预测模型以及异味间相互作用进行了综述,同时对异味污染治理技术进行了简要介绍.     

Modeling fecundity in birds: Conceptual overview, current models, and considerations for future developments

Fecundity is fundamental to the fitness, population dynamics, conservation, and management of birds. For all the efforts made to measure fecundity or its surrogates over the past century of avian research, it is still mismeasured, misrepresented, and misunderstood. Fundamentally, these problems arise because of partial observability of underlying processes such as renesting, multiple brooding, and temporary emigration. Over the last several decades, various analytical approaches have been developed to estimate fecundity from incomplete and biased data. These, include scalar arithmetic formulae, partial differential equations, individual-based simulations, and Markov chain methodology. In this paper, we: (1) identify component processes of avian reproduction; (2) review existing methods for modeling fecundity; (3) place these diverse models under a common conceptual framework; (4) describe the parameterization, validation, and limitations of such models; and (5) point out future considerations and challenges in the application of fecundity models. We hope this synthesis of existing literature will help direct researchers toward the most appropriate methods to assess avian reproductive success for answering questions in evolutionary ecology, natural history, population dynamics, reproductive toxicology, and management.     

The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics

A fundamentally revised version of the HERMES agro-ecosystem model, released under the name of MONICA, was calibrated and tested to predict crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics for various experimental crop rotations across Germany, including major cereals, sugar beet and maize. The calibration procedure also included crops grown experimentally under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The calibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median normalised mean absolute error (nMAE) of 0.20 across all observed target variables (n = 42) and a median Willmott's Index of Agreement (d) of 0.91 (median modelling efficiency (ME): 0.75). Although the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables were all within an acceptable range, the model often underperformed for variables related to nitrogen. Uncalibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median nMAE of 0.27 across all observed target variables (n = 85) and a median d of 0.76 (median ME: 0.30), also showing predominantly acceptable results for the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables. Based on the convincing performance of the model under uncalibrated conditions, MONICA can be regarded as a suitable simulation model for use in regional applications. Furthermore, its ability to reproduce the observed crop growth results in free-air carbon enrichment experiments makes it suited to predict agro-ecosystem behaviour under expected future climate conditions.     

火电厂地下水环境影响评价技术方法探讨

本文根据近两年从事火电厂地下水环评工作的经验,总结并分析了目前火电厂地下水环境影响评价实践中存在的主要技术问题,对地下水评价过程中的评价等级划分、项目所在区地质环境现状调查、水文地质试验及参数计算、地下水污染源确定及影响预测、污染防治措施的确定等方面构建出火电厂地下水环境影响评价的整体框架,提出了地下水环境影响评价的整体思路,并以完成审批的燃煤火电厂为例进行了分析和探讨。