基于PCA-PNN的采空区多源指标危险性辨识

为了提高采空区多源指标危险性辨识的预测精度,基于主成分分析(PCA)和概率神经网络(PNN),提出1种采空区多源指标危险性辨识方法。将影响华东某地区矿山采空区危险性辨识的9项因素作为主要影响因素,并以96个实测采空区为例进行分级。研究结果表明：与朴素贝叶斯、随机森林和AdaBoost 3种机器学习算法相比,PNN在测试集上表现更好,对实际工程具有良好的指导意义和应用价值。     

A Level‐of‐Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework

One of the most challenging tasks of water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Many water supply utilities target on meeting 100% of their customers' needs based on scenario‐based deterministic demand projections numbers even though there are uncertainties in both supply and demand values. This may result in under or overly conservative approach in assessing future needs. In this article, a level‐of‐service concept is introduced to capture a utility's willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke a management strategy during extreme events than build a facility to accommodate those in planning for new water supply sources. Accounting for uncertainties in both supply and demand help quantify reliability by achieving a prescribed level of service. The major benefit of such an approach for planning future water supply is that it allows policy makers to evaluate the use of adaptive water management strategies and develop supply in an incremental fashion as demand warrants it. For example, if a given level of service cannot be reliably met with the existing system at a future time t, an incremental water supply project would come online to bring the required reliability level up but no more.     

居民经手口途径摄入含PAHs颗粒物的致癌风险评价

为评价居民经手口途径暴露于被PAHs污染室外土壤和室内灰尘颗粒的致癌风险以及与之相关各个参数的重要程度,本文构建了经手口途径暴露于这两种颗粒物的概率风险模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法评价了居民的致癌风险,探究了主要的风险来源及关键的暴露参数.结果表明,幼儿、儿童和青少年所承受的风险较大;婴儿、成年人和老年人较小.婴儿致癌风险超过10~(-6)的概率为2%左右;幼儿和青少年超过10~(-6)的概率在5%左右,但不超过10~(-4);儿童超过10~(-6)的概率在15%左右,有0.1%左右的概率超过10~(-4);成年人和老年人超过10~(-6)的概率分别在1%和0.1%左右.室内灰尘颗粒是主要的风险来源,占91%左右;室内硬表面灰尘是室内致癌风险的主要来源,占65%左右.与致癌风险相关性最大的因素为:手口途径发生的频次(FQ)、灰尘颗粒中PAHs的等效斜率(PEFj)、灰尘在室内硬表面的含量(DSLHS)、颗粒物从手掌皮肤表面到口腔的转移率(SE)和灰尘在室内软表面的含量(DSLSS).     

水力旋流器分离性能的分析与预测

本文介绍了水力旋流器中单锥旋流器的迁移率的计算模型.根据计算模型的计算结果预测了旋流器的操作条件对分离性能的影响.结果表明,流量与流体物性参数只改变分割尺寸d5o,不改变无因次迁移率曲线MP'与d/d50之间的关系;分流比也只改变d50而不改变MP'与d/d50之间的关系;而且在分流比小于28.6%时,分流比的变化对d50的影响不大.因此,通过改变分流比来改善旋流器的分离性能意义不大.改善旋流器的分离性能的有效方法是调节底流口与溢流口尺寸.本文的计算结果适用于分流比大于进口分散相浓度的场合.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF GROUND WATER PUMPAGE ON LOW-FLOW HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Ground-water pumpage withdrew 57 cubic feet per second from aquifers beneath the Yahara River Basin in 1970. Forty-six cubic feet per second were exported by the diversion of treated wastewater from the drainage basin. The low-flow hydrology of the upper Yahara River has been impacted by this diversion. Prior to 1959, the wastewater was discharged into the river, augmenting the baseflow during low-flow periods. As much as 85% of streamflow was due to effluent discharge. In 1959 the wastewater was transferred from the river basin. The result was a decrease of about one-third in mean annual streamflow, and a decrease of more than 50% in the 7Q₂ and 7Q₁₀. Regression analysis showed the annual 7-day low-flow and 60-day low-flow have a statistically significant correlation with mean annual flow. Using predictions of future mean annual discharge of the river with increasing interbasin transfers, it is shown that by 1990 there is a significant probability that in some years the 60-day low-flow in the river will be zero.     

Differential protective effects of motorcycle helmets against head injury

Background: Although numerous observational studies have demonstrated a protective effect of motorcycle helmets against head injury, the degree of protection against specific head injury types remains unclear. Experimental biomechanics studies involving cadavers, animals, and computer models have established that head injuries have varying etiologies. This retrospective cross-sectional study compared helmet protection against skull fracture, cerebral contusion, intracranial hemorrhage, and cerebral concussion in a consecutive series of motorcycle operators involved in recent traffic crashes in Kentucky.

Methods: Police collision reports linked to hospital inpatient and emergency department (ED) claims were analyzed for the period 2008 to 2012. Motorcycle operators with known helmet use who were not killed at the crash scene were included in the study. Helmet use was ascertained from the police report. Skull fracture, cerebral contusion, intracranial hemorrhage, and cerebral concussion were identified from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes on the claims records. The relative risks of each type of head injury for helmeted versus unprotected operators were estimated using generalized estimating equations.

Results: Helmets offer substantial protection against skull fracture (relative risk [RR] = 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23, 0.34), cerebral contusion (RR = 0.29, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.53), and intracranial hemorrhage (RR = 0.47, 95% CI, 0.35, 0.63). The findings pertaining to uncomplicated concussion (RR = 0.80, 95% CI, 0.64, 1.01) were inconclusive. A modest protective effect (20% risk reduction) was suggested by the relative risk estimate, but the 95% confidence interval included the null value.

Conclusions: Motorcycle helmets were associated with a 69% reduction in skull fractures, 71% reduction in cerebral contusion, and 53% reduction in intracranial hemorrhage. This study finds that current motorcycle helmets do not protect equally against all types of head injury. Efforts to improve rotational acceleration management in motorcycle helmets should be considered.     

居住小区交通噪声概率分布特征及其评价

在连续35天监测的基础上，分析了道路交通流量的概率分布特征，发现道路交通流量在时间上呈对数正态分布。该分布导致小区交通噪声在时间上具有明显的正态分布特征，其中小区临街交通噪声在空间上也呈正态分布。将上述概率分布特征应用到小区道路交通噪声评价中，使得评价结果不仅具有一般的大小意义，还具有概率分布意义。     

天津近岸海域表层沉积物中PAHs污染特征及风险

为掌握渤海湾天津段多条河流入海区和海滨旅游度假区的近岸海域表层(0~5 cm)沉积物中PAHs(多环芳烃)的污染状况,对该区域表层沉积物中16种US EPA(美国国家环境保护局)优先控制PAHs的分布特征及其来源进行了调查和分析,并评估了其潜在生态风险和概率致癌风险. 结果表明:渤海湾天津近岸海域表层沉积物中w(PAHs)(16种PAHs质量分数之和,以干质量计)为23.9~672.8 ng/g,平均值为228.1 ng/g. 表层沉积物中PAHs的污染程度与历史调查结果相比有所加剧,并且呈复合型污染,在天津港港区外海域主要为石油制品污染,在研究区域南部则主要源于燃煤和生物质的不完全燃烧. 风险评估结果表明,海河入海口附近和研究区域北部存在潜在生态风险;研究区域内概率致癌风险处于较低水平,∑₇TEQ_BaP(7种强致癌PAHs的苯并芘毒性当量浓度之和)占∑₁₆TEQ_BaP〔16种PAHs的苯并芘毒性当量浓度之和〕的96.8%,其中二苯并蒽的致癌风险最大,其次为苯并芘.      

黄河小浪底水库地表水中重金属的时空变化与概率健康风险

小浪底水库地表水重金属污染是我国黄河流域水安全的一个重要问题. 2014～2022年期间,调查了6种重金属（Cu、Zn、Pb、As、Hg和Cd）的时空分布并采用重金属污染指数、内梅罗指数和污染程度对其污染水平进行评价.结果表明,重金属污染水平较低（HPI平均值为18.15）,符合地表水Ⅲ类水质阈值. 6种重金属检出率为91.6%～92.9%,浓度中值范围为0.020(Hg)～1.850(As)μg·L-1.呈现出丰水期浓度低于平枯水期,下游断面浓度较高,且在过去的9 a呈现下降趋势的时空特征.重金属污染主要来源于工农业生产和人为排放.此外,结果发现TN、高锰酸盐指数和NH+4-N与重金属浓度有很强的相关性（P <0.05）,这表明水中重金属的迁移、转化和吸附沉降可能受到相关因素的影响.敏感性分析表明,金属浓度（贡献率为56.56%～92.27%）是重金属健康风险评估的主要影响因素.此外,虽然重金属暴露不会对人体造成不良影响,但在极端条件下实际风险可能较高.总之,研究对公共健康和环境管理都有潜在的应用价值.