主元分析-神经网络岩爆等级预测模型

为准确可靠地预测岩爆灾害,构建结合主元分析法(PCA)的径向基神经网络(RBFNN)、概率神经网络(PNN)和广义回归神经网络(GRNN)岩爆预测模型.选取6个常用的参数构成岩爆预测指标体系,采用PCA消除各指标间的相关性并降维,得出3个线性无关的主元即岩爆综合预测指标Y1、Y2和Y3,构成RBFNN、PNN、GRNN...     

流域尺度氮流失的环境风险评价

采用故障树及概率分析方法,对九龙江流域氮的流失风险进行定性与定量评价.通过建立故障树定性分析了九龙江流域氮流失的主要风险来源.结果表明,氮流失风险大小主要与肥料施用、畜禽养殖废物的处置及农田耕作有关.在GIS技术支持下,通过土地利用、土壤等数据的计算,结合田间调查结果与专家意见,确定故障树基本故障事件概率,继而对氮流失风险进行定量评价.最佳管理措施模拟评价结果表明,降低施肥水平,在养殖场周边建立植被过滤带,增加河岸林截留入河沉积物等措施可以有效降低氮流失风险,在九龙江流域可以考虑优先实施.      

大型填埋场垃圾降解规律研究

在上海市老港垃圾填埋场建造了一座面积为3000m^2，高度为4m，内填生活垃圾10800t的小型卫生填埋场。对该卫生填埋场进行了40个月的监测，分析了垃圾中的总糖、总炭、挥发性物质和有机碳、生物可降解物含量（BDM）、粗纤维含量与填埋时间的关系。同时，也对1991年至1994每年4月份的填埋单元垃圾组成了分析。通过数学聚合，预测了填埋单元封场后的若干年内垃圾组成，对填埋场稳定化程度和垃圾矿化程度进行了判断。结果表明，该场的稳定化时间大约为22－23年，届时，该场的垃圾基本上达到无害化和稳定化，绝大部分可降解的有机物得到充分降解。     

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: a case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors.     

A test of the substitution–habitat hypothesis in amphibians

Most examples that support the substitution‐habitat hypothesis (human‐made habitats act as substitutes of original habitat) deal with birds and mammals. We tested this hypothesis in 14 amphibians by using percentage occupancy as a proxy of habitat quality (i.e., higher occupancy percentages indicate higher quality). We classified water body types as original habitat (no or little human influence) depending on anatomical, behavioral, or physiological adaptations of each amphibian species. Ten species had relatively high probabilities (0.16–0.28) of occurrence in original habitat, moderate probability of occurrence in substitution habitats (0.11–0.14), and low probability of occurrence in refuge habitats (0.05–0.08). Thus, the substitution–habitat hypothesis only partially applies to amphibians because the low occupancy of refuges could be due to the negligible human persecution of this group (indicating good conservation status). However, low occupancy of refuges could also be due to low tolerance of refuge conditions, which could have led to selective extinction or colonization problems due to poor dispersal capabilities. That original habitats had the highest probabilities of occupancy suggests amphibians have a good conservation status in the region. They also appeared highly adaptable to anthropogenic substitution habitats.     

家具制造过程中VOCs的来源分析及环境健康风险评价

目前国内外仅对家具生产中涂装环节VOCs的来源进行分析,且主要关注的是家具制造完成之后释放的VOCs及其对室内空气的影响,因此本文对完整家具制造过程中VOCs的来源进行探究,并引入蒙特卡罗模拟方法,运用改进的概率风险评估模型,对家具制造过程中贴皮、喷底漆、喷面漆、清洗、喷胶、粘棉、巡检等工序9个工位的工人进行致癌和非致癌健康风险评价,并筛选出对健康风险影响较大的暴露参数.结果表明,喷底漆、喷面漆工序使用的各类油漆、稀释剂和固化剂会产生苯、甲苯、二甲苯、苯乙烯、丁酮、环己酮、乙酸丁酯、乙酸乙酯等VOCs,贴皮工序、喷胶工序、粘棉工序使用的胶水类化学原料会产生二氯甲烷和乙酸乙酯,清洗工序用到的脱漆剂会产生二氯甲烷;暴露于苯和二氯甲烷的各工位致癌风险值均超过10~(-6),除暴露于苯的擦色、喷底漆和巡检工位外,其它各工位超过10~(-6)的概率皆大于95%,喷面漆工人的苯致癌风险最大,为3.07×10~(-6)±1.73×10~(-6),贴皮工人的二氯甲烷致癌风险最大,为5.14×10~(-6)±2.70×10~(-6),另外,各工位中只有喷面漆工人的非致癌风险大于1;暴露持续时间(ED)、致癌物的浓度(C)、呼吸速率(InhR)、暴露时间(ET)、暴露频率(EF)是对致癌风险影响较大的参数,体重(BW)对致癌风险具有负敏感度.除浓度外,对非致癌风险结果影响较大的暴露参数依次为:暴露持续时间(ED)、暴露时间(ET)、暴露频率(EF).     

PREDICTIVE REAL TIME CONTROL OF SURCHARGED INTERCEPTORS: IMPACT OF SEVERAL CONTROL PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: A global predictive real time control strategy minimizing overflow volumes from combined sewers during rainfall was applied to control flows entering the Marigot interceptor (Laval, Canada) for 23 rain events that occurred in this urban area during the summer of 1989. Different surcharge intensities were allowed in the sewer. The duration of the control horizon as well as the location and number of control regulators were varied to assess the impact of these parameters on total overflow volumes and on control safety. Due to the high propagation speed of flow waves in pressurized conduits, it was found that five‐ minute control horizons were sufficient to ensure control performance and safety when important surcharges were permitted in the interceptor and when the controlled regulators were located where pressurized flow occurred. It was also found that it is possible to reduce the number of controlled regulators by placing them at locations intercepting the largest volumes of water during rain periods.     

Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes

In the Brazilian Amazon, private land accounts for the majority of remaining native vegetation. Understanding how land‐use change affects the composition and distribution of biodiversity in farmlands is critical for improving conservation strategies in the face of rapid agricultural expansion. Working across an area exceeding 3 million ha in the southwestern state of Rondônia, we assessed how the extent and configuration of remnant forest in replicate 10,000‐ha landscapes has affected the occurrence of a suite of Amazonian mammals and birds. In each of 31 landscapes, we used field sampling and semistructured interviews with landowners to determine the presence of 28 large and medium sized mammals and birds, as well as a further 7 understory birds. We then combined results of field surveys and interviews with a probabilistic model of deforestation. We found strong evidence for a threshold response of sampled biodiversity to landscape level forest cover; landscapes with <30–40% forest cover hosted markedly fewer species. Results from field surveys and interviews yielded similar thresholds. These results imply that in partially deforested landscapes many species are susceptible to extirpation following relatively small additional reductions in forest area. In the model of deforestation by 2030 the number of 10,000‐ha landscapes under a conservative threshold of 43% forest cover almost doubled, such that only 22% of landscapes would likely to be able to sustain at least 75% of the 35 focal species we sampled. Brazilian law requires rural property owners in the Amazon to retain 80% forest cover, although this is rarely achieved. Prioritizing efforts to ensure that entire landscapes, rather than individual farms, retain at least 50% forest cover may help safeguard native biodiversity in private forest reserves in the Amazon. Umbrales de Pérdida de Especies en los Paisajes Fronterizos de Deforestación en el Amazonas Ochoa‐Quintero     

基于灰色理论的特种设备安全事故预测研究

应用灰色理论,借助于EXCEL及MATLAB软件工具,并以我国近年实际数据为基础,对我国“十二五”期间特种设备安全事故的绝对死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数进行了预测.结果表明,基于灰色理论的特种设备事故的死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数的模拟值和真实值较吻合,预测模型精度检验为好；预测指标可为特种设备安全政策制订和科学监管决策提供依据及参考.     

基于权重敏感度分布研究太湖有机磷农药单一和复合风险

基于实验室能得到的有限毒性数据的物种敏感度分布法(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)很难充分代表特定区域生态系统的物种分布,需要采用考虑生物区系特征进行赋予权重的物种敏感度分布法(weighted species sensitivity distribution,WSSD)。基于太湖物种组成构建WSSD,使用最大累积率(maximum cumulative ratio, MCR)(含风险商法(hazard quotient, HQ))和概率风险评价法(probabilistic risk assessment, PRA)对太湖地区单一和混合有机磷农药的风险进行研究。结果表明,相对于传统SSD方法,加权SSD方法计算的风险商大,且5%生物受影响的概率更大。单一风险评价中,敌敌畏和乐果5%生物受影响的概率超过40%,需要优先控制;最大累积率表明,敌敌畏是复合风险的主要贡献者,单一风险评价中风险较小的马拉硫磷和对硫磷也对复合风险贡献较大,复合暴露风险评价是必要的,混合物的风险商>1,5%生物受复合暴露影响的概率高达90%,有机磷农药复合生态风险不容忽视。