Increasing the Accuracy of Productivity and Survival Estimates in Assessing Landbird Population Status

Abstract:  The conservation of species with declining populations requires information on population demography and identification of factors that limit population growth. For landbird species, an understanding of large-scale population declines often requires assessment of local population processes, including the production of offspring, the survival of those offspring, and adult survival. Population growth has been modeled for several species of landbirds to date, and these studies have provided important information on relationships between population status and population-limiting factors. Several recent studies have illuminated field methods and analytical techniques that can aid in increasing the accuracy of productivity and survival estimates for population models. We reviewed these methods and recommend their implementation, including quantification of the season-long productivity of individuals, collection of empirical data on juvenile survival during the postfledging and overwintering periods, and incorporation of adult breeding dispersal into annual adult survival estimates. Such methods will allow for more accurate assessment of population status and provide a better understanding of the factors on which to focus our conservation efforts.     

Putting Density Back into the Habitat‐Quality Equation: Case Study of an Open‐Nesting Forest Bird

Abstract: Ecological traps and other cases of apparently maladaptive habitat selection cast doubt on the relevance of density as an indicator of habitat quality. Nevertheless, the prevalence of these phenomena remains poorly known, and density may still reflect habitat quality in most systems. We examined the relationship between density and two other parameters of habitat quality in an open‐nesting passerine species: the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). We hypothesized that the average individual bird makes a good decision when selecting its breeding territory and that territory spacing reflects site productivity or predation risk. Therefore, we predicted that density would be positively correlated with productivity (number of young fledged per unit area). Because individual performance is sensitive to events partly determined by chance, such as nest predation, we further predicted density would be weakly correlated or uncorrelated with the proportion of territories fledging young. We collected data in 23 study sites (25 ha each), 16 of which were located in untreated mature northern hardwood forest and seven in stands partially harvested (treated) 1–7 years prior to the survey. Density explained most of the variability in productivity (R²= 0.73), and there was no apparent decoupling between density and productivity in treated plots. In contrast, there was no significant relationship between density and the proportion of territories fledging ≥1 young over the entire breeding season. These results suggest that density reflects habitat quality at the plot scale in this study system. To our knowledge this is one of the few studies testing the value of territory density as an indicator of habitat quality in an open‐nesting bird species on the basis of a relatively large number of sizeable study plots.     

基于农业生态地带模型的中国粮食产能动态评估

随着人口增加和人们生活水平的不断提高,我国粮食消费需求将继续呈刚性增长,使得粮食品种和区域结构性矛盾加剧,而粮食产能的动态评估能够让我们加深认识我国粮食供需平衡,对制定适宜于我国经济社会发展同时保障粮食安全的粮食可持续发展战略具有重要意义.论文选取农田生产力作为我国粮食产能的指标,通过改进农业生态地带(AEZ)模型,动态嵌入不同县域水平的管理和投入水平的限制性因子,集成县级截面数据估计投入系数权重,并基于此估算了全国2000-2010年间农田生产力水平.研究发现,2000年以来,我国农田生产力虽年际间存在波动,但总体呈现增长的态势,且区域差异性显著.农田生产力水平存在从沿海到内陆、从南向北及从东向西的递减的梯度,而局部地区农田生产力变化明显,表现出明显的东西分异规律,其次是南北分异规律.而对各个地区农田生产力平均值统计发现,东部沿海地区与南部省份的农田生产力要高于内陆省份,西部地区农田生产力普遍低于东部和中部地区.2000、2005、2010年全国分县统计的粮食产量数据与动态估算结果进行精度验证,其相关系数分别达到0.82、0.76和0.89,实际产量为估算结果的69.4％、73.4％、67.2％,较好的反映了我国农田生产力的基本状况.最后,基于我国农田生产力时空变化规律和局部差异性特征,以及我国经济区水平上的中国农田生产力的变化规律,从耕地数量保障、农业管理和投入水平提高以及适宜的农业区划方面,提出适宜于我国自然环境状况和社会经济发展的农田生产力保障策略,对保障我国的农田生产力的稳定增长方面的规划决策与政策制定具有参考价值.     

Dynamic evaluation of land productivity in China

For making rational and scientific land-use planning,an inventory indicator of land productivity subject to biophysical limitations and human disturbance is required.This study introduces agricultural land productivity(ALP)as the dynamic indicator to measure land productivity,involving factors that affect agricultural production,such as characteristics of climate,soil,and terrain.As a case study of this dynamic indicator,ALP was estimated at county level and aggregated into provincial level in the whole of China.The result shows that ALP increased during 2000-2010 in China,and the ratios of ALP to the actual grain yield were 65.40%and 66.38%in the years 2000 and 2005,respectively.The ALP is an effective dynamic indicator to estimate the land productivity and to represent the basic conditions about the supply of water,energy,nutrients,and the physical basis for plant growth,as well as the local input.ALP estimation could provide supporting information for policy-making about land production planning and land-use management.     

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

ABSTRACT

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.     

Determining the level and cost of sickness presenteeism among hospital staff in Turkey

Objective. This study aimed to determine the associations between sickness presenteeism and socio-demographic factors, perceived health status and health complaints among hospital staff and to calculate the cost burdens and productivity losses attributed to presenteeism. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted using 951 hospital staff, including physicians, nurses, midwives, other health personnel and administrative staff working in two hospitals located in K?r?kkale province in Turkey. The health and work performance questionnaire developed by Kessler et al. was revised to measure sickness presenteeism. Results. After performing Student’s t test and a one-way analysis of variance, presenteeism was mostly observed in women, nurse-midwives, young employees, university health staff and health workers with low health status. Average productivity loss and cost of lost productivity per staff member were calculated as 19.92?h/TRY 315.57 for 2 weeks and 478.08?h/TRY 7573.68 for 1 year. Conclusions. The problem of sickness presenteeism is mostly observed in women and nurses. It causes both financial burdens and productivity losses for hospitals. These survey results are thus expected to provide critically important information on presenteeism for decision-makers and healthcare managers.     

Environmentally adjusted productivity measurement: an Australian case study

This paper critically examines various methods for estimating productivity incorporating environmental effects for the Australian agricultural sector. The agricultural sector has been selected because of its strategic position in the economy of Australia. The findings of this study indicate that the application of environmentally adjusted productivity methods is a credible approach to measure productivity, in the context of sustainable development. Although the empirical findings of this research are case study specific, the results provide evidence supporting the adoption of these techniques to other sectors of the economy when measuring productivity and needing to be cognisant of sustainable development. The findings suggest that adjusting for the environmental impacts of soil erosion can result in higher or lower agricultural productivity depending on the assumptions we make regarding damage costs of erosion. It is argued in this paper that, for soil erosion in Australia, assumptions yielding higher productivity (i.e., upwardly adjusted) are justified. Finally, the findings of this study and the use of the methods presented point to important gaps in data availability. This gap needs to be addressed by policy makers if sustainable development objectives are to be credibly assessed using these techniques.     

Productivity of mosses and organic matter accumulation in the litter of sphagnum larch forest in the permafrost zone

Productivity of the moss cover and necromass accumulation in the litter of a sphagnum larch forest have been estimated on the basis of tree age. It has been shown that the total carbon stock in the litter of a 100-year-old stand, including organic matter not destroyed by fire, exceeds the corresponding value for the tree stand itself by more than an order of magnitude. The accumulation of organic matter on the soil surface inhibits the growth of larch. In particular, this factor impairs hydrothermal conditions in the soil and causes a rise of the permafrost table; as a consequence, lower layers of the root system die off.     

Recycling of banana pseudostem waste for economical production of quality banana

Banana pseudostem biomass, traditionally incinerated and wasted, has been conserved and recycled by solid state fermentation (SSF) into plant growth stimulating soil conditioner (SC). This SC alone or combined with biofertilizers showed reduced mortality (10 and 12%) of planted suckers, enhanced chlorophyll contents (593 and 661 μg g⁻¹), gave biomass (35.0 and 36.6 kg) at par and improved yield (54.2 and 55.0 MT ha⁻¹), with that of the control (23%, 312 μg g⁻¹, 36.3 kg and 49.4 MT ha⁻¹, respectively). This has afforded (i) saving of chemical fertilizers by 50%, (ii) reduction in quantum (40%) and frequency (15%) of irrigation and (iii) reduction in cost of electricity and labor without sacrificing quality and quantity of banana. Thus, a voluminous agro-waste is converted into an eco-friendly agro-input for sustainable productivity.     

华北农牧交错带气候生产力时空变化特征——以大同市为例

以华北农牧交错带为切入点,选取晋北长城沿线大同市8个气象站点,利用线性趋势分析、5年滑动、M-K检验以及Thormthwaite模型,分析了近38年来大同市气候变化及其气候生产力的演变特征.结果表明:①近38年大同市气温呈现显著增加趋势,且在1994年发生突变.②降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势.③气候生产力呈现缓慢增加趋势,出现南部高于北部,东西方向上呈现由中心向四周递增.④暖湿气候的气候生产力呈现正距平,最适合作物生长;冷干气候的气候生产力呈现负距平,最不适合作物生长.现阶段气候暖干化趋势显著,因此研究气候变化对气候生产力有重要意义.