碳排放的人文发展绩效指标与实证分析

随着气候问题的日益凸显,发展低碳经济已成为全球共识.因此,提高碳排放绩效便成为题中应有之义.既有的关于碳排放绩效的研究主要围绕碳生产率指标展开,问题在于碳生产率测度的是碳排放的经济绩效,而非经济社会福利绩效.本文综合排放总量、人均排放以及发展阶段三个因素,构建碳排放的人文发展绩效指标,在此基础上对二十国集团1990-2006年的碳排放绩效进行分析,结果显示历年绩效平均值排前五名的国家是印度尼西亚、巴西、阿根廷、土耳其和墨西哥.七个国家的碳排放绩效呈现上升的趋势,其中德国和英国碳排放绩效增速较快,且在控制碳排放的同时保持了人类发展水平的提高,值得其他国家效仿.人类发展指数和碳排放绩效二维组合的国家分类表明,碳排放绩效不高是各国普遍存在的问题.无论从动态还是静态角度来看,中国目前都不具备低碳竞争优势.最后对中国如何提高碳排放绩效提出了从技术、制度与理念三方面进行创新的政策建议.     

近50年安徽省气候生产潜力演变及粮食安全气候承载力评估

安徽省是重要的粮食产区,在保障我国粮食安全中发挥着重要作用,研究该省气候生产潜力的演变特征,面向粮食安全分析其气候承载力具有显著的现实意义。本文从粮食生产与光温水等气候因子的关系出发,采用逐级订正的方法计算了安徽省的气候生产潜力及其变化特征,并根据不同生活水平下的粮食需求指标,分析了安徽省的气候承载力和剩余空间。结果表明,安徽省气候生产潜力的地理分异特征显著,其中北部高于南部、平原高于山区,高值区主要集中在沿淮及淮北地区,与耕种条件配合较好,有利于生产潜力的发挥。1961~2013年全省气候生产潜力基本呈一致下降趋势,近50年平均减少了约10%。安徽省目前粮食消费水平和结构属温饱型向小康型过渡阶段,在充分发挥气候生产潜力的前提下,全省气候资源所能承载的粮食产量均显著超过不同生活水平下的总需求量。小康水平下,气候承载力的相对剩余率总体呈东北向西南递减的趋势,除部分城市地区和山区外,全省大部地区气候承载力的剩余空间仍较富裕,能够较好的保障粮食需求。总的来看,由于安徽省光温水以及耕地等条件配合较好,气候承载力较高;虽然受太阳辐射影响,近年来气候生产潜力下降,但在保障未来小康社会的粮食安全方面,安徽省仍具有较好的气候承载力,粮食生产还有较大的提升空间。     

中国旅游经济增长源泉分解及其时空演化特征

依据数据包络分析法、最佳产出函数以及SDA两极分解法,构建了测算旅游经济增长源泉的非参数分解框架,并以2005~2012年中国30省份的旅游业为研究单元,结合投入与产出指标数据,对旅游经济增长源泉进行分解与测算。研究表明:2005~2012年,全要素生产率对旅游经济增长的贡献正逐步超过资源要素投入,成为推动中国旅游经济增长的主要源泉,相应贡献率从2006年的49.01%上升到2012年的82.18%,其中技术进步是全要素生产率贡献攀升的关键,而技术效率特别是其中的规模效率对旅游经济增长的贡献相对较小,且处于下滑态势,纯技术效率的影响微乎其微,资源要素投入的贡献率则从2006年的50.99%下降到2012年的26.52%;分区域来看,各区域旅游经济增长源泉的变化存在一定差异,使得中部、西部旅游经济增速超越东部,其中中部地区旅游经济增速加快主要受规模效率驱动,而西部地区则主要受纯技术效率驱动,并呈现出2005~2008年资源要素投入驱动与2009~2012年全要素生产率驱动两个阶段;从2006年到2012年中国旅游经济增长方式愈发趋于集约型,越来越多省区旅游业的全要素生产率贡献超过资源要素投入贡献,旅游经济增长更多地依靠全要素生产率驱动。     

长江经济带水资源利用的动态效率及绝对β收敛研究——基于三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数法

利用三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数法,对2009~2014年长江经济带11省市水资源全要素生产率及其分解指数进行了测算和分析。研究结果表明:在剔除了外部环境因素和随机误差因素以后,长江经济带水资源的全要素生产率及其分解效率发生了显著变化,水资源全要素生产率年均增长7.2%,技术进步指数年均增长4.7%,技术效率指数年均增长2.4%,技术进步是推动长江经济带水资源全要素生产率增长的主要源泉。分区域来看,西部地区水资源全要素生产率和技术效率年均增长率最高,东部地区技术进步年均增长率最高。长江经济带水资源全要素生产率存在显著绝对β收敛,表明长江经济带内省际水资源全要素生产率差距正在缩小,最终都朝相同的稳态水平趋近。     

Agricultural productivity and environmental insecurity in the Usangu plain, Tanzania: policy implications for sustainability of agriculture

Sustainable agricultural development is a necessity for sustainable economic growth and social development in Africa. Sustainable agriculture largely depends on how effective natural and environmental resources are managed and utilized; it also depends on the security of continuous access to such resources. This research was aimed to look into trends in agricultural productivity, examine the persistence of the environmental insecurity, analyze the relationship between the two, and explore their links to the national development policies. The results are discussed in the context of relevance to national development policies and their implications on the sustainability of agriculture and rural livelihoods security. Literature survey, records collection from the stakeholders, village level participatory assessments (PAs), observations and questionnaire survey were tools used for data collection. The study shows significant (P < 0.01) declines in cereal crop yields, cattle milk yield and cattle calving rate, and increasing cattle mortality rate. Elements of environmental insecurity were found to account for decline in agricultural productivity; significant (P < 0.01) proportion (68%), of 266 households interviewed, reported land resources deterioration, declining soil fertility, and increasing drought frequencies as the causes of their low productivity. Declined fertilizer consumption and increasing variability in rainfall amount significantly (P < 0.01) accounted for 59% and 39%, respectively, of the variations observed in total annual production of rice and maize, which are major cereals in the study area. This study recommends measures to improve soil productivity such as improved fertilizer application and use of organic manures along with mineral fertilizers for maintaining soil productivity; education of farmers on sustainable use and management of land resources; and pro-poor rural policies in agricultural development and environmental governance. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

内蒙古草地生产力资源和载畜量的区域尺度模式评估

在气候变化和人类活动的干扰下熏内蒙古草地在过去50年里产生大面积的退化沙化。论文在大气植被相互作用模式穴AVIM雪的基础上发展了一个区域评估模型AVIMia。该模式包括陆面物理过程、植被生长过程和草地利用模式,用来评估放牧利用和气候变化对草地生产力和载畜量的影响。结果表明:内蒙古草地区域生产力剧烈的年际变化与降水量密切相关,而与温度没有明显相关关系。模式估计内蒙古草地总的地上生产力为771.7×108kg/a,可食地上生物量为498.1×108kg/a,典型草原和草甸草原占了大部分的生产力。据此推算的内蒙古地区总的载畜量为45.51×106羊单位,与1997年实际载畜量比较,超载100%。因而熏提出过牧可能是内蒙古草地大面积退化沙化的主要原因,甚至超过气候变化的影响。     

景观生态学方法在青藏铁路格望段生态影响评价中的应用

运用景观生态学的方法,将青藏铁路格望段所在区域划分为3大类景观生态系统,然后从生态系统的生产能力和稳定状况两个方向,对项目区的生态完整性进行了现状评价和影响预测。评价结果表明：铁路施工将使不同类型生态系统的损失比率在0.01%至0.25%之间,影响不大;铁路建设对生态系统稳定性的影响也是生态系统可以承受的。     

Environmentally Sensitive Productivity Analysis of the Canadian Pulp and Paper Industry, 1959-1994: An Input Distance Function Approach

This study employs a parametric input distance function that incorporates both desirable and undesirable outputs to provide a more complete representation of the production technology from which environmentally sensitive productivity and efficiency measures can be generated. This framework also generates pollution abatement cost estimates that are useful for policy making. An input-based Malmquist index of productivity growth that appropriately credits the producer not only for increases in marketable or desirable outputs but also for the production of improved environmental quality through pollution abatement activities is derived from the input distance function. The method was applied to time series data from the Canadian pulp and paper industry. Our shadow price estimates indicate that the marginal cost to producers of pollution control has been rising. The main conclusion of this study is that productivity improvement, from the social viewpoint, has been stronger than conventional measures would suggest.     

Carbon Sequestration Potential of Indian Forests

The forestry sector can not only sustain its carbon but also has the potential to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. India has maintained approximately 64 Mha of forest cover for the last decade. The rate of afforestation in India is one of the highest among the tropical countries, currently estimated to be 2 Mha per annum. The annual productivity has increased from 0.7 m³ per hactare in 1985 to 1.37 m³ per hectare in 1995. Increase in annual productivity directly indicates an increase in forest biomass and hence higher carbon sequestration potential. The carbon pool for the Indian forests is estimated to be 2026.72 Mt for the year 1995. Estimates of annual carbon uptake increment suggest that our forests and plantations have been able to remove at least 0.125 Gt of CO₂ from the atmosphere in the year 1995. Assuming that the present forest cover in India will sustain itself with a marginal annual increase by 0.5 Mha in area of plantations, we can expect our forests to continue to act as a net carbon sink in future.     

长江经济带全要素碳生产率的时空演化及提升潜力

将碳排放引入全要素生产率分析框架之中,利用Malmquist指数对长江经济带2000~2013年的全要素碳生产率进行测算。实证研究结果显示:(1)从时间维度来看,在此期间长江经济带碳生产率一直处于震荡上升的趋势,而全要素碳生产率处于较平稳的状态,年均增长率为2%;(2)从空间差异来看,长江经济带上中下游碳生产率区域差异明显,下游中游上游,全要素碳生产率下游区域高于中上游区域,而中游区域和上游区域则处于"追赶-超越-被反超"的状态;(3)上游区域全要素碳生产率增长的动力为技术效率的提高,中游区域全要素碳生产率平均下降了0.1%的原因为技术进步恶化的幅度已经完全抵消了技术效率提升带来的变化,下游区域主要是通过技术创新推动最优生产前沿向外移动使得全要素碳生产率平均增长了4.4个百分点;(4)安徽和贵州两地碳生产率提高的空间最大,而云南、四川和重庆地区也可通过技术进步、技术创新促进碳生产率的提高,上海、浙江、江苏和江西的碳生产率提升空间最小。