Disaster coordination preparedness of soft-target organisations

This paper introduces a network‐enabled model to examine the disaster coordination preparedness of soft‐target organisations (STOs). Little attention is devoted to this matter in recent research. This study places emphasis on such organisations and the proposed model tests hypotheses related to network relation and coordination preparedness. It analyses the data set entitled ‘Preparedness of large retail malls to prevent and respond to terrorist attack, 2004′, which contains 120 completed surveys of security directors of retail malls in the United States. ¹ 1 See http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/TPDRC/studies/21140 .
The following questions form the basis of this study: ‘What do STOs need to be better prepared to respond to a disaster?’; ‘How does network relationship between STOs and emergency agencies affect the coordination preparedness of STOs for disaster recovery?’; and ‘Which centrality measure needs to be followed to measure network variables in order to analyse coordination preparedness?’ The results show that STOs with a high level of connectedness and strong ties to other emergency agencies are better prepared for disaster response.     

基于分形理论的中国原油管道网络结构研究

为深入分析全国及各区域原油管网的结构与布局,揭示其空间结构特征,论文运用分形理论的三种维数:加权长度-半径维数、分枝-半径维数和关联维数,分别从密度、连通性及通达性研究了全国及各区域原油管网。研究结果表明:全国原油管网的密度和连通性均存在明显的东西分异特征,密度自东向西呈\"线状-散点\"的下降形态,连通性自东向西呈\"散点-线状\"的升高形态,而通达性则普遍较低;对各区域来说,东北、华北和华东等东部管网除连通性较低外,其他分形指标相对较高;西北管网的密度、通达性均不如东部,而且其新疆管网的连通性数值超过2,是不正常的连通结构;华南管网的多数分形指标均低于其他地区,其管网结构雏形尚未形成。     

智慧水务背景下的供水管网漏损控制研究进展

供水管网漏损是国内外供水行业面临的普遍难题,不仅造成大量的水资源浪费,而且带来管网水质二次污染风险.因此,管网漏损控制一直是供水行业的研究热点.尤其是近年来智慧水务的发展,使管网基础信息与运行监测数据不断完善,大大推动了管网漏损控制技术的发展.综述了管网破损预测、管网漏损识别定位、管网漏损控制方案优化、数据质量控制与漏损管理系统等方面的研究进展,并分析了当前研究的特点与不足,以期为管网漏损控制技术的发展提供借鉴.     

太湖流域河网4种典型抗生素的时空分布和风险评价

分析了太湖流域人口密度大且养殖业发达的宜溧-洮滆水系水相和沉积相中典型抗生素磺胺甲恶唑(Sulfamethoxazole,SMX)、氧氟沙星(Ofloxacin,OFL)、罗红霉素(Roxithromycin,ROM)和土霉素(Oxytetracycline,OTC)的时空分布特征,并应用商值法进行了健康风险(Health Quotients,HQs)和生态风险(Risk Quotients,RQs)评价.结果表明,宜溧-洮滆水系中OTC、ROM、OFL、SMX在水相的检出率分别为96.5%、57.0%、60.5%和4.5%,沉积相中的检出率分别为96.5%、95.5%、90.0%和44.5%;水相检出浓度最高的抗生素为OTC,最高浓度为17.85 ng·L~(-1);沉积相检出浓度最高的抗生素为SMX,浓度为46.74 ng·g~(-1);相比于其他3种抗生素,流域水相和沉积相中OTC的检出率和检出浓度均较高.宜溧-洮滆水系主要包括南河和长江客水区,丰水期南河水系抗生素的检出水平高于长江客水区.沉积相中抗生素浓度沿水流方向逐渐降低,入湖河口所有点位由于沉积物堆积作用均呈现抗生素富集现象.渔业养殖中抗生素的大量施用是导致该水系抗生素时空分布差异的主要原因.健康风险评价结果表明,4种抗生素均属于可接受风险(HQs0.01).生态风险评价结果表明,4种抗生素均呈现低风险(RQs0.1),其中,生态风险最高的抗生素是OTC,其值为0.086.为有效管控太湖流域抗生素生态风险,应加强对南河水系水产养殖业监管;入湖河口的抗生素富集现象也应引起重视.     

人工神经元网络辅助酚类化合物构效关系研究

分子连接性指数（^tXv）与在正辛醇和水之间的分配系数logP是反映化合物性能的重要结构参数。本文计算了酚类化合物的分子连接性指数及分配系数,运用新型的模式识别方法──人工神经元网络对酚类化合物的构效关系进行了研究。所得结果优于逐步判别法,对于预测未知化合物的毒性,具有重要意义。     

日本东京供水管网的漏损预防管理

供水管网的漏损控制管理是城市水资源管理以及节水管理中的重要环节,东京作为国际上管网漏损控制最优秀的城市之一,漏损率从1955年战后恢复时期的20％控制到2007年的3．3％。多年来,东京在漏损控制技术和管理方面积累了丰富的优秀经验,并且建立了完善的供水管网漏损预防管理体系,指出为了保证有效的漏损控制和预防,必须做到以下四个方面,即准确掌握管网属性信息、重视管网的维护和更新、不断发展漏损控制与预防技术及重视人力资源管理及人才培养。东京成功的漏损控制经验可以从管理体制、管理手段、技术研发、人才培养等方面对中国的供水管网漏损管理及节水管理提供有益的借鉴经验。     

利用神经网络法对胺类有机物急性毒性的分类及定量预测

运用三层误差反向传播网络对５１种胺类有机物进行了结构－毒性关系的研究,进入的结构参数为分子连接性指数信息理论指及分子量等６种均可通过分子拓扑图直接计算获得的指标。毒性参数选用大鼠经口ＬＤ５０,根据其大小将样本分为３类：高毒,中毒,低毒,在神经网络模型上作出差别归类,并分别对每类进行定量预测。     

Institutional dynamics and climate change adaptation in South Africa

Climate change is a multi-dimensional issue and in terms of adaptation numerous state and non-state actors are involved from global to national and local scales. The aim of this paper is first to analyse specific institutional networks involved in climate change predominantly at the national level in South Africa and second to determine how different stakeholders perceive their role vis-a-vis climate change adaptation. Within the South African context there is a gap in understanding and evaluating how institutional networks operate and thus the findings of this work may help inform and strengthen such relationships in the future. Results showed that few institutions fully understand the implications of adaptation and their roles and responsibilities have not yet been properly defined. Constraints relating to capacity, lack of awareness and poor information flow need to be addressed. Climate change is perceived as an important issue although problems such as poverty reduction and job creation remain national priorities. Most importantly this research has demonstrated how adaptation challenges the hierarchical manner in which government works and a more collaborative approach to climate change adaptation is needed. Adaptation needs to be mainstreamed and institutional networks need to be strengthened in order for adaptation mechanisms to be effectively implemented.

潮汐河网调水工程的环境与经济效益分析——以北江、西江调水工程为例

本文针对潮汐河网的基本特点,提出了运用非恒定流水环境实时数学模型和“影子工程法\"对一系列引水方案的环境与经济效益进行定量的预测、分析和比较。该方法对潮汐河网地区水务工程的环境与费用效益分析研究具有普遍的参考意义。文中的算例为广州市市政洪水与污水整治战略决策提供了科学的依据。