Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.     

基于信息熵评价决策模型的突发公共事件应急处置指挥方案优选

提出基于信息熵评价决策模型对突发公共事件应急处置指挥决策中的作战方案进行优选的方法。首先介绍应急处置指挥决策的概念和过程;其次,分析了信息熵以及基于信息熵评价模型的多属性决策方法;最后,给出基于信息熵的评价决策模型在突发公共事件应急处置指挥方案优选中的应用。实地演练表明,该决策模型在应急指挥决策方案排序与优选是客观合理、切实可行的,能够为应急处置指挥决策提供一定的参考。     

可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究

对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。     

完善环境影响评价公众参与的初步研究

环境影响评价制度是我国的一项基本环境保护法律制度,是环境管理体系的重要组成部分,完善公众参与体系有利于解决当前环境影响评价中公众参与存在的问题。在总结国内外公众参与发展进程的基础上,对完善公众参与体系进行了初步研究,提出了完善公众参与体系的内涵要点,提高公众参与体系研究力度,建立公众参与学相关内容。     

Scenario-visualization for the assessment of perceived green space qualities at the urban-rural fringe

The provision of green space is increasingly being perceived as an important factor for quality of life. However, green spaces often face high developmental pressure. The main objective of this study is to investigate a prospective approach to green space planning by combining three-dimensional (3D) visualization of green space scenarios and survey techniques to facilitate improved participation of the public. Aside from the ‘Status quo’, scenarios ‘Agriculture’, ‘Recreation’, ‘Nature conservation’ and ‘Wind turbines’ are visualized in three dimensions. In order to test responses, a survey was conducted both in print format and on the Internet. Overall, 49 different visualizations that belong to one of the scenarios were available in the survey and were rated according to the perceived esthetic, recreational and ecological values.The highest rated scenes include vegetation elements such as meadows with orchards, single trees, shrubs or forest. The least attractive scenes are those where buildings are highly dominant or where there are no vegetation elements.Based on the ratings for the individual images and on the corresponding scenarios, our study shows that there is high potential for improving the existing landscape. All suggested changes are either rated about equal to or considerably higher than the status quo, with the scenario ‘Nature conservation’ receiving the highest scores.     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估

为保障伤员生命与健康,提升火灾伤员救治率,该文研究公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估方法.以火灾伤员转运护理应急资源需求分析为基础,从应急人员、应急设备、应急环境信息与应急管理四个方面出发,共选取15个评估指标,构建公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估指标体系,根据各指标采集相关数据并对数据实施量纲标准化处理.构建基...     

The News You Choose: news media preferences amplify views on climate change

How do choices among information sources reinforce political differences on topics such as climate change? Environmental sociologists have observed large-scale and long-term impacts from news media and think-tank reports, while experimental science-communication studies detect more immediate effects from variations in supplied information. Applying generalized structural equation modeling to recent survey data, previous work is extended to show that political ideology, education and their interaction predict news media information choices in much the same way they predict opinions about climate change itself. Consequently, media information sources serve as intervening variables that can reinforce and, through their own independent effects, amplify existing beliefs about climate change. Results provide empirical support for selective exposure and biased assimilation as mechanisms widening political divisions on climate change in the United States. The findings fit with the reinforcing spirals framework suggesting partisan media strengthens climate change beliefs which then influences subsequent use of media.     

The greening of Christianity? A study of environmental attitudes over time

In contradistinction to the ideas of Lynn White and others who have long suggested that the Judeo-Christian tradition fosters a ‘dominion over nature’ ethos, a number of scholars have recently argued that there has been a ‘greening of Christianity’. Largely missing from this debate is strong evidence at the individual level as to whether Christians have in fact adopted deeper environmental concerns over time. This study provides such evidence through an examination of longitudinal data from Gallup’s annual surveys on the environment. The analysis reveals little evidence that Christians have expressed more environmental concern over time. In fact, across many measures, Christians tend to show less concern about the environment. This pattern holds across Catholic, Protestant and other Christian denominations and for differing levels of religiosity. These findings support a conclusion that there has not been a discernible ‘greening of Christianity’ among the American public.     

The spillover of race and racial attitudes into public opinion about climate change

The relationship between racial attitudes and public opinion about climate change is examined. Public opinion data from Pew and American National Election Studies surveys are used to show that racial identification and prejudices are increasingly correlated with opinions about climate change during the Obama presidency. Results show that racial identification became a significant predictor of climate change concern following Obama’s election in 2008, and that high levels of racial resentment are strongly correlated with reduced agreement with the scientific consensus on climate change. These results offer evidence for an effect termed the spillover of racialization. This helps further explain why the public remains so polarized on climate change, given the extent to which racial grievances and identities have become entangled with elite communication about climate change and its related policies today.