基于链式多灾种防灾管理体制及预警机制探讨

随着灾害的种类日益增多,频度不断提高,造成的损害也日益严重,灾害己经成为当今社会面临的最主要问题之一。根据多灾种灾害链的基本原理,综合考虑了我国城市在防灾减灾管理机制中存在的条块分割问题及预警信息系统建立问题,提出建立常设的、稳定的综合防灾减灾统一协调机构,健全预警机制,建立高效的信息系统,并针对哈尔滨水危机事件进行改进措施对策分析,以切实可行的技术方案为我国城市多灾种综合防灾预警机制提供一条有效的改进途径。     

突发公共事件应急信息系统平战结合

结合我国应急体系建设的要求,论述了突发公共事件应急信息系统的结构、组成和功能;分析了应急信息系统在平常时期(预防和应急准备阶段)和战时(应急响应阶段和恢复阶段)在整个应急管理过程中不同的功能.指出了我国应急信息系统平战结合重要意义和当前存在的关键问题;提出了今后在应急体系建设和如何实现平战结合方面的建议.     

浅谈环境影响评价中的公众参与

环评中实行公众参与不仅是环评本身的需要,同时也是现阶段我国民主制度的体现。对环评中公众参与的产生、发展、与可持续发展的关系、国内外公众参与的现状、国内环评中公众参与存在的问题进行了探讨,并对环评中实行公众参与提出了几点建议。     

Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

我国公众参与环境保护制度存在的问题及对策

阐述了公众参与环境影响评价的重要意义和相关依据,指出了我国现行公众参与制度中存在信息公示程度不足、征求意见方式单一和公众意见重视不够等问题,并从完善法律法规体系、丰富公众参与形式和提高公众参与透明程度等方面提出了改进措施和建议。     

基于水库旱限水位动态控制的供水策略研究

为了克服现行水库旱限水位确定方法和功能定位上存在的不足,更好地为水库抗旱调度提供技术支持,通过结合供水系统水文干旱识别方法,用汛末蓄水量、干旱期设计来水量及供水规则计算干旱预警期。并根据实际来水逐月修改来水系列,对当年潜在干旱期和干旱预警期进行再计算,实现旱限水位的动态控制,由此提出了用“预警期/旱限水位”数对的形式(Td,DL)来表示的旱限水位动态控制方法。将旱限水位与限制供水策略相关联,用水库旱限水位作为触发水库限制供水的特征水位。并以水库累计缺水指数最小为目标,以限制供水系数为优化变量,建立水库进入干旱预警后的供水模拟-优化模型。以天津市于桥水库为实例研究,结果表明,旱限水位动态控制方法对水库干旱的预警不仅更加合理,且具有较好的可操作性;旱限水位与限制供水策略相关联,避免了潜在干旱期内水库出现程度更加严重的缺水,对不同蓄水条件下的限制供水系数进行分析,发现限制供水系数最优值一般取在0.5~0.75。