基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价

首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析.由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素.结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据.     

Effect of 450 MHz Microwave Modulated with 217 Hz on Human EEG in Rest

Summary This study focuses on discrimination of changes, produced by low-level microwave exposure in intensity and time variability of the human EEG at rest. The power spectral density (PSD) method and nonlinear scaling analysis of the length distribution of low variability periods (LDLVP) were selected for analysis of the EEG signal. During the study, 19 healthy volunteers were exposed to a microwave (450 MHz) of 217 Hz frequency on-off modulation. The field power density at the scalp was 0.16 mW/cm². The experimental protocol consisted of ten cycles of repetitive microwave exposure. Signals from frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels on EEG theta, alpha and beta rhythms were analysed. Exposure to microwave causes average increase of EEG activity. LDLVP analysis discriminated significant effect in time variability for 2 subjects (11%). PSD method detected significant changes in intensity for 4 subjects (21%). The effect of low-level microwave exposure is stronger on EEG beta rhythm in temporal and parietal regions of the human brain.     

A Parallel Study of SAR Levels in Head Tissues for Three Antennas Used in Cellular Telephones: Monopole, Helix and Patch

Summary This paper is a comparative study of several antennas commonly used in cellular telephones. These include a monopole, a helix-monopole and a patch antenna. Each one of these structures is modeled and numerically tested using finite-difference time-domain simulation and human models based on magnetic-resonance images, which allow for inclusion of details of the human body in the simulation. The testing procedure involves antenna simulation in the proximity of the human head. The behavior of each antenna is evaluated for variable distances from the head geometry (0, 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 mm). Continuous waveform, representative of the sources used in mobile telephones, (250 mW, 1.8 GHz) is used as the form of the antenna excitation. The simulation outputs used as measures for this comparative study include transmitting and receiving antenna characteristics and the specific absorption rate (SAR). The SAR levels for the head tissues are calculated for and with accordance to the two currently accepted standards: Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP). The computed SAR levels within each of the considered tissues vary for the three antennas under investigation and are within the determined health safety standards. Results suggest that the patch antenna may be the structure of choice when considering safety standards, as its radiation yields the lowest local SAR in the head tissues.     

城镇供热管道隐患辨识研究

近年来,因供热管道老化腐蚀、外部自然环境、施工活动等导致的事故时有发生,给居民的冬季供暖造成了严重的危害和影响。本文在分析供热管道自身安全特性的基础上,运用事故树等系统安全分析方法对供热管道隐患进行辨识分析,结合供热管道影响因素明确隐患辨识重点,并针对隐患排查内容及手段等提出对策建议,以支撑供热管道单位更系统、更科学的开展隐患排查治理工作,保障管线的安全运行。     

0.1～3000MHz射频电磁环境时间变化规律及其与人群作息时间关系的研究

利用自动连续监测仪器对在成都市城区选定的监测点位开展了持续数日的测量,获取了测点的长时间监测数据,通过对监测数据的分析,研究了0.1~3000MHz射频电磁环境随时间变化的规律及其与人群作息时间的关系,并对电磁环境人工手动监测的适宜时间段进行了分析。     

Driving while impaired by alcohol: An analysis of drink-drivers involved in UK collisions

Objective: Drink-driving represents a critical issue on international organizations’ agendas as one of the key behavioral risk factors in road traffic safety, alongside speed and nonuse of motorcycle helmets, seat belts, and child restraints. Changing road user behaviors regarding these 5 factors is a critical component in reducing road traffic injuries and casualties. The objective of this study is the identification of drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes in the UK while impaired by alcohol to design targeted drink drive compliance campaigns.

Method: To profile drivers with the factor “impaired by alcohol” assigned in collisions, an extensive data set is used, including all reported injury collisions between 2011 and 2015 in the UK (police records), merged with the Experian Mosaic Database. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression is conducted, utilizing the hierarchical nature of the data (drivers within Mosaic types).

Results: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, the finding is that some driver profiles are more likely to contribute to crashes and are assigned the contributory factor “impaired by alcohol.” Drink-related crashes are more common in some circumstances or for some crash-involved driver groups than others. For instance, alcohol-related crashes are more likely to occur on single carriageways and among males and 25- to 35-year-olds. Drink-drive-related crashes are found to be strongly associated with dark lighting conditions and, more specifically, with late night hours (the interval between 3:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. accounts for a third of the drink-drive-related collisions). Using the Experian Mosaic Database which divides the UK population into 66 types based on demographic, lifestyle, and behavior characteristics, the finding is that, among crash-involved drivers, some Mosaic types are significantly more likely (e.g., pocket pensions, dependent greys, streetwise singles) and others are significantly less likely (e.g., crowded kaleidoscope, cultural comfort, penthouse chic) to contribute to a drink-related crash.

Conclusions: The outcome is a more nuanced understanding of drivers contributing to drink-related crashes in the UK. The study concludes by discussing the implications for governments and other interested bodies for better targeting and delivery of public education campaigns and interventions.     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

Brain myelination in rats treated with ionizing radiation in utero

Abstract

Effects of ionizing radiation on brain myelination and some physical development parameters were studied in laboratory rats (Fisher F‐344 inbred strain). Rats were treated with three different doses of radiation (150 rad, 15 rad, and 6.8 rad) delivered on the 20th day of prenatal life. Exposure to 150 rad reduced body, brain, ovary, kidney, heart and spleen weights. Prenatal exposure to 150 rad of radiation reduced the cerebral cortex weight by 22 percent at 30 days of age, and 20 percent at 52 days of age which caused a reduction in cerebral cortex myelin content by 20 and 23 percent at the ages of 30 and 52 days respectively. This dose did not affect the myelin content of the cerebellum or the brain stem, or the myelin concentration (mg myelin/g brain tissue) of the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, and the brain stem. The cerebral cortex weight of the 15 rad treated rats was reduced at the age of 30 days. Exposure to 15 rad, and 6.8 rad did not affect either the myelin content or the myelin concentration of these brain areas.     

昌黎生态监控区夏季浮游植物群落年际变化特征分析

为研究昌黎生态监控区夏季浮游植物群落结构特征及其与环境因子关系,采用2005~2013年夏季(8月)昌黎生态监控区海域浮游植物及环境因子的监测资料,基于Arc GIS 10.0和Canoco软件平台,运用典范对应分析方法,对浮游植物群落结构进行分析.结果表明,近9 a共鉴定出浮游植物3门23科39属105种,其中,硅藻门16科32属90种,占浮游植物总数的85.7%;甲藻门共6科6属14种,占总种类数的13.3%;金藻门1种.各年的优势种存在很大差异,按照优势度Y值的大小包括辐射圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus radiatus)、柔弱角毛藻(Coscinodiscus debilis)、笔尖根管藻(Rhizosolenia styliformis)、柏氏角管藻(Cerataulina bergoni)、威氏圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus wailesii)、海链藻(Thalassiosira sp.)、三角角藻(Ceratium tripos)、洛氏角毛藻(Coscinodiscus wailesii)、中肋骨条藻(Ceratium tripos)等.夏季细胞丰度年际变化较大,呈现逐渐降低的趋势.浮游植物的多样性指数H'值介于0.015~3.889,均匀度指数J值介于0.009~1,年际变化幅度较小;各站位间物种分布不均匀,优势种较少且优势度较大.对浮游植物群落与环境因子进行典范对应分析(CCA),结果表明影响夏季浮游植物群落结构变化的环境因子包括水温、营养盐(磷酸盐、硝酸氮、氨氮)、盐度等,且是各个环境因子相互作用的结果.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.