COUPLING OF NONPARAMETRIC FREQUENCY AND L-MOMENT ANALYSES FOR MIXED DISTRIBUTION IDENTIFICATION 1

ABSTRACT: Both L-moment and nonparametric frequency analyses were performed on a series of annual maximum floods from New Brunswick, Canada. The L-moment analysis concluded that the data were generated from a unimodal Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, the nonparametric frequency analysis indicated that a majority of stations followed nonunimodal mixed distributions since peak flows occur during different seasons and are the result of different generating mechanisms. The coupling of L-moment and nonparametric analyses facilitates mixed distribution identification. Thus, the nonparametric method helps in identifying underlying probability distribution, especially when samples arise from mixed distributions.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE1

To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours.     

The Volta Lake and Declining Rainfall and Streamflows in the Volta River Basin

This paper looks at the rainfall and streamflow patterns over two distinct time periods, i.e., 1950–1970 and 1971–1991 within the two most prominent catchments in the Volta river system – White Volta and the Oti basins. The first period (1950–1970) represents relatively vegetated catchments and low population whilst the latter (1971–1990) represents intense land use practices resulting from increased population that have severely degraded the environment. These two catchments are among the most significant contributors to the Volta lake. The Volta lake, which was formed between 1962 and 1966 in Ghana and created primarily for hydroelectric power generation, will probably be one of the greatest man-made lakes for a long time. It produces 912MW of electricity at its maximum operating capacity. Recently, there have been declines in the lake levels resulting most probably from inadequate rainfall and/or runoff from the river catchments that feed the lake. Comparisons of runoffs for the two time periods show reductions in mean streamflows of 32.5% at Saboba on the Oti and 23.1% at Nawuni on the White Volta.     

Illinois redesigns its ambient water quality monitoring network

Illinois has been operating an ambient water quality network of almost 600 stations for several years. In 1977 changes in program emphasis toward intensive monitoring, the need for improved procedures and quality control in monitoring operations, and the desire to create a single data base of all Illinois State monitoring data, resulted in a redesign of the ambient monitoring program.A unique cooperative program between the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and the US Geological Survey provides for their monitoring a portion of the network. The Survey provides flow data at most network stations as well as extensive manpower training, equipment, data processing, and program quality control. Informal agreements with other agencies have permitted a great reduction in the monitoring effort required by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency.     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

EFFECTS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT ON HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: A network of 225 recording raingages was operated over an area of 5200 km² in the St. Louis region during 1971-1975, in conjunction with an extensive investigation of urban effects on precipitation. Study of urban-induced effects on the frequency of heavy rainstorms has revealed a pronounced increase in the occurrence of storms producing 25 mm (1 inch) or more of rain. The increase is greatest in an area that is frequently in the path of storms passing across two urban-industrial regions. Analyses of raincells (rain intensity centers) within heavy convective storms shows a pronounced increase in water yield from cells exposed to potential urban effects, compared with those exposed only to the surrounding rural environment. Naturally-occurring heavy cells tend to undergo the greatest enhancement from urban exposure. Other analyses indicate an above-average frequency of excessive rain rates for periods of five minutes to two hours downwind of the urban-industrial complex. It is concluded that urban-induced intensification of short-duration rainstorms is sufficient to merit inclusion in the design and operation of urban-area hydrologic systems that control the flow of surplus storm water.     

An Analysis of the Wind Energy Potential of Elazig,Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the wind energy potential of Elazig is statistically analyzed based on hourly measured wind speed data over the five-year period from 1998 to 2002. The probability density distributions are derived from cumulative distribution functions. Two probability density functions are fitted to the measured probability distribution on a yearly basis. The wind energy potential of the location is studied based on the Weibull and Rayleigh distributions. It was found that the numerical values of both Weibull parameters (k and c) for Elazig vary over a wide range. The yearly values of k range from 1.653 to 1.878 with an average value of 1.819, while those of c are in the range of 2.757–2.994 m/s with an average value of 2.824 m/s. In addition, yearly mean wind speed and mean power density of Elazig is found as 2.79 m/s and 38.76 W/m², respectively. The wind speed distributions are represented by Weibull distribution and also by Rayleigh distribution, with a special case of the Weibull distribution for k = 2. As a result, the Rayleigh distribution is found to be suitable to represent the actual probability of wind speed data for Elazig.     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Flood frequency analyses are frequently being made using widely available computer programs. Serious errors can result from blind acceptance of such results. Visual interpretation of observed flood series can be used for evaluation on frequency paper with compatible scales. Such frequency papers are presented in the paper. In ephemeral streams, more infrequent floods may constitute a separate set from the more frequent floods because (a) runoff producing storms cover only a portion of the contributing area, (b) transmission losses in the normally dry streambed may reduce the peak flow, and (c) some runoff may be stored in stock water ponds which therefore leads to partial area runoff. The Cunnane plotting position used in this paper is superior to the more widely used Weibull equation, having a mathematically sound basis for locating observed floods on an assumed probability.     

Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin1

Gebremichael, Mekonnen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, and Menberu M. Bitew, 2010. Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):361-366. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00428.x. Abstract: Given the increasingly higher resolution and data accessibility, satellite precipitation products could be useful for hydrological application in the Nile River Basin, which is characterized by lack of reasonably dense hydrological in situ sensors and lack of access to the existing dataset. However, in the absence of both extreme caution and research results for the Nile basin, the satellite rainfall (SR) products may not be used, or may even be used erroneously. We identify two steps that are critical to enhance the value of SR products for hydrological applications in the Nile basin. The first step is to establish representative validation sites in the Nile basin. The validation site will help to quantify the errors in the different kinds of SR products, which will be used to select the best products for the Nile basin, include the errors in decision making, and design strategies to minimize the errors. Using rainfall measurements collected from the unprecedented high-density rain gauge network over a small region within the Nile basin, we indicate that SR estimates could be subject to significant errors, and quantification of estimation errors by way of establishing validation sites is critically important in order to use the SR products. The second step is to identify the degree of hydrologic model complexity required to obtain more accurate hydrologic simulation results for the Nile basin when using SR products as input. The level of model complexity may depend on basin size and SR algorithm, and further research is needed to spell out this dependence for the Nile basin.