中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.     

Public Perception of Flood Hazard in the Niger Delta,Nigeria

Summary Our study had the aim of understanding how floodplain dwellers regard the risk of flooding. About 500 questionnaires were administered to landowners in the selected settlements in the study area using systematic random sampling. The results of analysis show, among other things, that the population regards most important the causes of floods as heavy, prolonged rainfall and river overflow. Nevertheless, they have little knowledge of the frequency of severe floods, and flood alleviation schemes. Most flood victims do not get compensation or relief during flood disaster, and the reason why they remain in the study area is influenced by their occupations, especially fishing, subsistence agriculture, and the presence of crude oil in the region which has attracted many migrants who cannot afford the high cost of accommodation and are therefore forced to live in vulnerable areas of the floodplain. Finally, the study concludes that flood control in the region needs the cooperation of government, community efforts and an enlightenment programmes through environmental education and mass media.     

GEOMORPHOLOGY OF STEEPLAND HEADWATERS: THE TRANSITION FROM HILLSLOPES TO CHANNELS1

Headwater streams comprise 60 to 80 percent of the cumulative length of river networks. In hilly to mountainous terrain, they reflect a mix of hillslope and channel processes because of their close proximity to sediment source areas. Their morphology is an assemblage of residual soils, landslide deposits, wood, boulders, thin patches of poorly sorted alluvium, and stretches of bedrock. Longitudinal profiles of these channels are strongly influenced by steps created by sediment deposits, large wood, and boulders. Due to the combination of small drainage area, stepped shallow gradient, large roughness elements, and cohesive sediments, headwater streams typically transport little sediment or coarse wood debris by fluvial processes. Consequently, headwaters act as sediment reservoirs for periods spanning decades to centuries. The accumulated sediment and wood may be episodically evacuated by debris flows, debris floods, or gully erosion and transported to larger channels. In mountain environments, these processes deliver significant amounts of materials that form riverine habitats in larger channels. In managed steepland forests, accelerated rates of landslides and debris flows resulting from the harvest of headwater forests have the potential to seriously impact the morphology of headwater streams and downstream resources.     

“We cannot let this happen again”: reversing UK flood policy in response to the Somerset Levels floods, 2014

The Multiple Streams Framework offers a theoretical account of how policy proposals move from latent possibilities to becoming favored for implementation. We apply this framework in the context of the policy response to the 2013–2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Moors. Stakeholder interviews and analysis of news media coverage evidence the way in which a specific policy option that had fallen out of favor with the national Environment Agency – dredging – came to the fore and was eventually adopted during the period in which the conjunction of problem, policy, and political pressures came to a head. Local political activists mobilized a wider campaign with the help of social media and capitalized on national political sensitivities to successfully promote dredging. What is less clear is the longevity of the policy reversal, given funding constraints.     

昆明市主城区三种温室气体的月份和干、湿季的小时变化规律及原因分析

研究了昆明市主城区3种温室气体浓度的最新变化情况,采用2009年、2010年和2011年的月份和小时平均浓度数据,结合昆明市气候特点,对3种温室气体浓度的月份和干、湿季的小时变化规律及原因进行了分析。     

LIDAR技术在内陆水系监测管理中应用综述

机载激光雷达(Light Detection and Ranging,LIDAR)测距系统是20世纪90年代发展起来的高新技术,该系统是集激光、全球定位系统和惯性导航系统3种技术于一体的测量系统,能够快速、精确的获取物体三维数据。文章简要说明了LIDAR技术的基本原理。介绍了国外LIDAR技术在内陆河流监测中的应用,如河网测绘、河漫滩的监测管理、河岸侵蚀监测、洪水监测管理等内陆水系监测管理实例。通过对流域范围的LIDAR点云数据进行滤波与分类,建立数字高程模型,或结合使用地理信息系统、遥感影像、全球定位系统采集的数据,来实现上述实例。简要评述了LIDAR技术在内陆水域监测管理方面的优势,以及当前我国内陆水系监测管理的技术现状。通过国外典型案例说明LIDAR技术在我国内陆水系监测管理中广阔的应用前景。     

青海省洪水变化情况的研究

为了研究青海省洪水变化情况,搜集了青海省内43个水文站的相关数据,其中选取具有长期观测资料的32个水文站资料,采用P-Ⅲ曲线作为其理论频率曲线,并与各站自建站-1974年和建站-2008年的水文计算成果进行比较,结果表明青海省水情发生了较大的变化,且在各水文分区的变化也不相同。     

1950-2009年洞庭湖流域农业水灾演变特征及分异规律

洞庭湖流域为我国重要农业生产区,而农业水灾却一直是制约农业可持续发展的最大障碍因素。以1950-2009年水灾统计资料为依据,用定性与定量相结合的方法,系统分析了该流域农业水灾演变特征及区域分异。结果表明:①年年发生流域性或区域性的农业水灾,其中重灾、特大水灾频率呈增大趋势;②在长时间尺度演变过程中,受灾率异常指数岀现2个波峰期和4个波谷期,成灾率异常指数岀现3个波峰期和3个波谷期,且水灾受灾率与成灾率大体上呈同步变化,但短时间內受灾率与成灾率却呈反向波动;③农业水灾具有突变性,但总体演变呈增加趋势;④受孕灾环境、洪涝致灾因子及经济发展水平组合差异的制约,农业相对灾情与绝对灾情在空间上的分布均呈明显的南北分异与东西分异。     

Preliminary report on methane emissions from the Three Gorges Reservoir in the summer drainage period

Considerable variations may exist in CH4 emissions from the Three Gorges Reservoir.     

北京地区冬夏季持续性雾-霾发生的环境气象条件对比分析

在北京地区,除冬季供暖期外盛夏也是雾-霾天气的高发季节,与我国南方不同.使用微波辐射仪、风廓线和常规气象探测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及大气成分观测结果,通过对比分析揭示了冬、夏季持续6 d的2个雾-霾过程形成和维持机制的异同.冬季雾-霾过程出现在高空西北气流、低层多短波活动的背景下,其形成和维持的主要机制是边界层内始终有逆温层、地面弱风场、底层湿度逐渐增大.逆温层昼高夜低、湿度昼小夜大是影响PM2.5质量浓度和能见度日变化的重要环境因子.在雾-霾天气持续期间地面弱风场能够维持主要源于冷空气势力弱、常不能影响到地面.此外,入夜后地面迅速辐射降温、边界层上层有暖平流以及空气过山后下沉增温在逆温层的形成中起了关键作用.然而,对于夏季持续性雾-霾天气,气溶胶区域输送、环境大气保持对流性稳定、空气的高饱和度是其发生的重要条件.在副热带高压长时间控制下对流层低层盛行偏南风,北京的PM2.5质量浓度随着偏南风风速增大升高.对流层底层系统性偏南风与北京附近的山谷风共同构成了从北京以南气溶胶累积地向北输送的机制.夏季雾-霾过程低层没有逆温,但是北京上空一直维持超过200 J·kG-1的对流抑制能量,它同样限制了污染物的垂直扩散.夏季自由对流高度也存在昼夜变化,其对PM2.5浓度和能见度的作用与逆温层高度升降相同.因此,冬、夏个例分别代表了2种不同类型的持续性雾-霾过程,导致差异的根本原因在于大气环流型.