基于人居尺度的中国城市热岛强度时空变化及其驱动因子解析

全球变暖的大背景下城市地表热环境的日趋恶化是全球现代城市共同面临的生态环境问题之一,对城市地区居民的身心健康、空气质量改善以及植被生长发育等诸多方面造成不利影响.本文利用2001～2018 年时间序列MODIS 地表温度数据产品,基于一致性方法对我国1 232个主要城镇人居斑块(面积＞10 km2)的热岛强度及其时空变...     

金泽水库库区细菌群落构建过程与关键驱动因子分析

为探究微污染水生态系统中细菌群落对人为干扰响应所依赖的生态机制,基于生态零模型(ecological null model),应用拟合分析(fitting analysis)研究了环境因子与金泽水库来水及库区不同区域间细菌群落构建过程的关系.结果表明,细菌群落在系统发育上的聚类比预期要分散得多(SES.MNTD的单样本t检验95%置信下限为9.79).温度是影响群落系统发育的重要因子.随机性过程(stochastic processes)和确定性过程(deterministic processes)在不同样品细菌群落演替中的相对重要性呈明显的季节性特征.春、夏和秋季样品细菌群落演替由随机性过程主导,冬季则由随机性过程和确定性过程共同主导.NH⁺₄-N是影响随机性过程和确定性过程相对重要性的主要环境因子.NH⁺₄-N浓度为0.06～0.40 mg·L^-1时,由随机性过程主导;NH⁺₄-N浓度为0.40～0.80 mg·L^-1<...     

旱区城市扩展过程区位因素研究——以中国呼包鄂榆城市群为例

认识城市扩展过程的区位因素特征对旱区城市可持续发展具有重要意义。为此,以中国呼包鄂榆城市群为例,利用随机森林方法量化区位因素对城市扩展过程的影响。研究发现:随机森林方法能够有效地量化旱区城市扩展过程区位因素的基本特征,模型的AUC(area under curve)值达到0.97。同时,到城市中心距离对区域1980—2017年城市扩展过程影响最大,重要性达到42.62%。国道、高速公路和铁路等交通因素也有重要的影响,重要性均大于10%。此外,所有区位因素对区域城市扩展过程的影响均存在尺度效应,其中地形、气候和河流对城市扩展过程影响的尺度效应相对比较明显。地形、气候和河流对大城市影响的重要性分别为27.17%、20.23%和8.12%,分别是其对小城市影响的4.02倍、3.91倍和2.36倍。因此,建议在旱区城市建设中,应该高度重视地形、气候和河流等自然要素的约束作用,因地制宜地进行城市规划和建设。     

监测分析仪器的不确定度试验是保证监测结果准确的手段之一

通过仪器的不确定度试验,可以检验分析仪器引起的误差是否满足分析方法的要求,从而知道仪器对分析方法的适应性,同时可以知道作某一分析项目时,同类仪器中哪一台误差最小.监测分析仪器的不确定度试验是保证监测结果准确的手段之一.     

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large‐sized taxa were under decline, whereas small‐sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data‐deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species‐by‐species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species. Predección y Definición de Prioridades de Conservación para Mamíferos de Bolivia con Base en Correlaciones Biológicas del Riesgo de Declinación     

Identifying correlates of success and failure of native freshwater fish reintroductions

Reintroduction of imperiled native freshwater fish is becoming an increasingly important conservation tool amidst persistent anthropogenic pressures and new threats related to climate change. We summarized trends in native fish reintroductions in the current literature, identified predictors of reintroduction outcome, and devised recommendations for managers attempting future native fish reintroductions. We constructed random forest classifications using data from 260 published case studies of native fish reintroductions to estimate the effectiveness of variables in predicting reintroduction outcome. The outcome of each case was assigned as a success or failure on the basis of the author's perception of the outcome and on whether or not survival, spawning, or recruitment were documented during post‐reintroduction monitoring. Inadequately addressing the initial cause of decline was the best predictor of reintroduction failure. Variables associated with habitat (e.g., water quality, prey availability) were also good predictors of reintroduction outcomes, followed by variables associated with stocking (e.g., genetic diversity of stock source, duration of stocking event). Consideration of these variables by managers during the planning process may increase the likelihood for successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of native freshwater fish. Identificación de Correlaciones de Éxito y Fracaso de Reintroducciones de Peces de Nativos Agua Dulce     

Neonatal form of the hyperornithinaemia,hyperammonaemia, and homocitrullinuria (HHH) syndrome and prenatal diagnosis

We describe here the first case of neonatal death due to the hyperornithinaemia, hyperammonaemia, and homocitrullinuria (HHH) syndrome and the first prenatal diagnosis of this disorder in a subsequent pregnancy in this family.     

对氯苯甲酸用于测量OH#方法探讨2.误差分析

对氯苯甲酸用于测量臭氧氧化过程中产生的OH.浓度时会产生误差.为了研究误差的大小,进行了臭氧的间歇实验,以测量臭氧分解速率常数k.通过对比乙二酸、甲苯和腐殖酸溶液中投加对氯苯甲酸前后k值的变化,判断投加的对氯苯甲酸是否能引起测量误差及误差大小.试验结果表明,含清除剂少的水样,对氯苯甲酸测量OH.浓度时会引起很大的误差.在对氯苯甲酸捕获率小于10%的水样中,对氯苯甲酸测量OH.时产生的误差小.在捕获率大于20%的水样中,采用对氯苯甲酸测量OH.会产生较大误差,不能用来测量OH.浓度.     

广东省产业绿色发展的空间格局及影响因素分析

产业绿色发展对构建高效低耗、绿色循环发展的产业体系、实现经济可持续发展具有重要意义。从产业绿色增长度、资源环境承载力和政府政策支撑力三个维度构建广东省产业绿色发展综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法,测度了2005-2015年广东省及各市产业绿色发展综合水平,并运用探索性空间数据分析方法剖析了广东省各市产业绿色发展的空间关联特征,在此基础上采用空间误差模型对广东省产业绿色发展水平的影响因素进行探讨。结果表明：（1）从总体水平看,广东省产业绿色发展综合水平基本呈现持续增长态势;（2）从空间分布看,其总体水平的空间格局呈现“核心—边缘”状,高水平主要集聚在珠三角,而中低水平主要分布在珠三角外围地区;（3）从空间演化看,2005-2015年广东省各市的产业绿色发展水平空间差异略有扩大,但总体格局保持相对稳定;（4）从空间关联特征看,广东省各市产业绿色发展水平的空间分布集聚格局基本稳定,珠三角城市处于高值集聚的热点地区,外围地区的东翼和北部山区部分城市处于低值集聚的冷点地区;（5）空间误差模型结果显示全球化、市场化、居民收入水平、政府调控和科技水平均对广东省产业绿色发展水平产生显著的正向影响,而城镇化对产业绿色发展的影响不显著。     

时数分离残差模型及在尾矿坝渗流预测中的应用

对于非等时序列的时数分离可以建立模型，但这种模型误差分析较困难。本文在残差GM(1，1)模型的基础上，建立了时数分离残差模型，对误差进行修正。应用这种模型分析了德兴铜矿1#尾矿坝的渗流趋势，结果表明，模型能够大大提高预测精度，满足工程预测的需要。