Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [R]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R. The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water‐year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo‐climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.     

矿井通风热阻力数值模拟研究

矿井风流流经井下热水、干热岩、火灾地点等局部高温区域时,风流吸收热量使其内能增加,高温风流在巷道内流动时会产生热阻力。针对如何确定井下风流加热流动时巷道内热阻力的实测范围这一问题,通过理论推导与数值模拟的方法对巷道内热阻力分布情况进行分析。由压力场的模拟结果得出风流加热流动时,所产生的热阻力不仅存在于加热区,高温风流向加热区下风侧流动时热阻力仍然存在。模拟结果表明:对于水平等截面管道,风流流经加热区时,风流速压增加,加热区内风流的静压降幅大于全压降幅;流出加热区的风流向管道出口处流动时,高温风流不断克服阻力做功,并与管道内的新鲜风流、壁面进行热交换,风流温度逐渐下降,当测定区间为加热区入口至模拟管道出口时,风流的静压降幅与全压降幅近似相等。研究结果对井下巷道、隧道及实际工程应用中热阻力的分析与研究都具有重要价值。     

Towards Real‐Time Continental Scale Streamflow Simulation in Continuous and Discrete Space

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts floods at approximately 3,600 locations across the United States (U.S.). However, the river network, as defined by the 1:100,000 scale National Hydrography Dataset‐Plus (NHDPlus) dataset, consists of 2.7 million river segments. Through the National Flood Interoperability Experiment, a continental scale streamflow simulation and forecast system was implemented and continuously operated through the summer of 2015. This system leveraged the WRF‐Hydro framework, initialized on a 3‐km grid, the Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge river routing model, operating on the NHDPlus, and real‐time atmospheric forcing to continuously forecast streamflow. Although this system produced forecasts, this paper presents a study of the three‐month nowcast to demonstrate the capacity to seamlessly predict reach scale streamflow at the continental scale. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of reservoirs, through a case study in Texas. Validation of the uncalibrated model using observed hourly streamflow at 5,701 U.S. Geological Survey gages shows 26% demonstrate PBias ≤ |25%|, 11% demonstrate Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ≥ 0.25, and 6% demonstrate both PBias ≤ |25%| and NSE ≥ 0.25. When evaluating the impact of reservoirs, the analysis shows when reservoirs are included, NSE ≥ 0.25 for 56% of the gages downstream while NSE ≥ 0.25 for 11% when they are not. The results presented here provide a benchmark for the evolving hydrology program within the NWS and supports their efforts to develop a reach scale flood forecasting system for the country.     

Landscape Hydrogeology and its Influence on Patterns of Groundwater Flux and Nitrate Removal Efficiency in Riparian Buffers

This study uses data from 46 riparian sites to examine the influence of landscape hydrogeology on patterns of groundwater flux and the buffer width required for effective nitrate removal in humid temperate agricultural regions. There is a considerable imbalance in the research focus on different hydrogeologic settings. More than 40% of the buffers are located in landscapes with surficial sand aquifers, whereas few buffers have been studied in glacial till and weathered bedrock landscapes which cover large areas. Annual groundwater fluxes for 29 of these sites ranged from <20 L/m/day for buffers on flat sand plains and uplands with fine‐textured deposits to 50‐1,200 L/m/day for many sites with upland sand aquifers. Despite a similar range of water fluxes, buffers in gently to moderately sloping landscapes with <4 m depths of sand sediments reached a 90% removal efficiency within 30‐60 m while sites with >4 m depths required a 150‐200 m width. The width for 90% efficiency in buffers with loamy sand and sandy loam sediments also increased from 10‐20 m with <4 m sediment depths to 50‐100 m for >4 m depths. Limited data for buffers with fine‐textured sediments suggest that 90% of the nitrate flux was often depleted in a 10‐20 m width. Groundwater flux did not have a significant relationship with nitrate removal percent per meter buffer width because of the variation in efficiency that occurred in buffers with similar fluxes in different hydrogeologic settings.     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.     

Conceptual Framework for the National Flood Interoperability Experiment

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment is a research collaboration among academia, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service, and government and commercial partners to advance the application of the National Water Model for flood forecasting. In preparation for a Summer Institute at the National Water Center in June‐July 2015, a demonstration version of a near real‐time, high spatial resolution flood forecasting model was developed for the continental United States. The river and stream network was divided into 2.7 million reaches using the National Hydrography Dataset Plus geospatial dataset and it was demonstrated that the runoff into these stream reaches and the discharge within them could be computed in 10 min at the Texas Advanced Computing Center. This study presents a conceptual framework to connect information from high‐resolution flood forecasting with real‐time observations and flood inundation mapping and planning for local flood emergency response.     

The role of time and species identities in spatial patterns of species richness and conservation

Many conservation actions are justified on the basis of managing biodiversity. Biodiversity, in terms of species richness, is largely the product of rare species. This is problematic because the intensity of sampling needed to characterize communities and patterns of rarity or to justify the use of surrogates has biased sampling in favor of space over time. However, environmental fluctuations interacting with community dynamics lead to temporal variations in where and when species occur, potentially affecting conservation planning by generating uncertainty about results of species distribution modeling (including range determinations), selection of surrogates for biodiversity, and the proportion of biodiversity composed of rare species. To have confidence in the evidence base for conservation actions, one must consider whether temporal replication is necessary to produce broad inferences. Using approximately 20 years of macrofaunal data from tidal flats in 2 harbors, we explored variation in the identity of rare, common, restricted range, and widespread species over time and space. Over time, rare taxa were more likely to increase in abundance or occurrence than to remain rare or disappear and to exhibit temporal patterns in their occurrence. Space–time congruency in ranges (i.e., spatially widespread taxa were also temporally widespread) was observed only where samples were collected across an environmental gradient. Fifteen percent of the taxa in both harbors changed over time from having spatially restricted ranges to having widespread ranges. Our findings suggest that rare species can provide stability against environmental change, because the majority of species were not random transients, but that selection of biodiversity surrogates requires temporal validation. Rarity needs to be considered both spatially and temporally, as species that occur randomly over time are likely to play a different role in ecosystem functioning than those exhibiting temporal structure (e.g., seasonality). Moreover, temporal structure offers the opportunity to place management and conservation activities within windows of maximum opportunity.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat use by koalas: the checkerboard model

Animal movement patterns and use of space depend upon food and nonfood resources, as well as conspecific and heterospecific interactions, but models of habitat use often neglect to examine multiple factors and rarely include marsupials. We studied habitat use in an Australian population of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) over a 6-year period in order to determine how koalas navigate their environment and partition limited patchy food and nonfood resources. Tree selection among koalas appears to be mediated by folar chemistry, but nonfood tree selection exerts a major impact on home range use due to thermoregulatory constraints. Koalas moved on a daily basis, during both day and night, but daytime resting site was not necessarily in the same location as nighttime feeding site. Koalas had substantial home range overlap in the near absence of resource sharing with less than 1% of trees located in areas of overlap used by multiple koalas. We suggest that koala spatiotemporal distribution and habitat use are probably based upon a community structure of individuals, with a checkerboard model best describing overlap in home range area but not in resource use. Nonfood refugia and social networks should be incorporated into models of animal range and habitat use.     

MULTIVARIATE EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION WITH MIXED GUMBEL MARGINALS1

ABSTRACT: Bivariate and trivariate distributions have been derived from the logistic model for the multivariate extreme value distribution. Marginals in the models are extreme value type I distributions for two-component mixture variables (mixed Gumbel distribution). This paper is a continuation of the previous works on multivariate distribution in hydrology. Interest is focused on the analysis of floods which are generated by different types of storms. The construction of their corresponding probability distributions and density functions are described. In order to obtain the parameters of such a bivariate or trivariate distribution, a generalized maximum likelihood estimation procedure is proposed to allow for the cases of samples with different lengths of record. A region in Northern Mexico with 42 gauging stations, grouped into two homogeneous regions, has been selected to apply the models. Results produced by the multivariate distributions have been compared with those obtained by the Normal, log-Normal-2, log-Normal-3, Gamma-2, Gamma-3, log-Pearson-3, Gumbel, TCEV and General Extreme Value distributions. Goodness of fit is measured by the criterion of standard error of fit. Results suggest that the proposed models are a suitable option to be considered when performing flood frequency analysis.