FLOODPLAIN ANALYSIS,SIMPLIFIED VS. COMPLEX METHODS: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The accurate and reliable determination of floodplains, floodway boundaries, and flood water elevations are integral requirements of Flood Insurance Studies. These studies are intended to be used for determining the flood insurance rates. Therefore, the accuracy of the water surface profiles are important. To ensure the high degree of accuracy, the HUD Flood Insurance Administration has developed standards which must be met in the analysis of water surface profiles. A somewhat less accurate study is required for the preparation of Flood Emergency Plans. As part of the flood insurance studies of eight locations in the State of North Dakota, various flood hazard and floodplain information reports were reviewed. The hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, especially the computation of the 100-year water surface profiles, were completed using both simplified and complex hydraulic computation methods. Significant differences were found (1 to 3 feet) between the profiles computed by the SCS simplified method and those computed by HEC-2 computer program. However, the floodplain boundaries determined by both methods were found to be similar. Approximate methods are recommended for rapid determination of the floodplain, floodway boundaries, and inundation area mapping, while sophisticated computer programs (HEC-2) are recommended to be used for developing areas where the 100-year flood elevation has a significant impact on the cost of land development.     

STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY: DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Considerable effort is expended each year in making flood peak estimates at both gaged and ungaged sites. Many methods, both simplistic and complex, have been proposed for making such estimates. The hydrologist that must make an estimate at a particular site is interested in the accuracy of the estimate. Most methods are developed using either statistical analyses or analytical optimization schemes. While publications describing these methods often include some statistical measure of goodness-of-flt, the terminology often does not provide the potential user with an answer to the question,‘How accurate is the estimate?’ That is, statistical terminology often are not used properly, which may lead to a false sense of security. The use of the correct terminology will help potential users evaluate the usefulness of a proposed method and provide a means of comparing different methods. This study provides definitions for terms often used in literature on flood peak estimation and provides an interpretation for these terms. Specific problems discussed include the use of arbitrary levels of significance in statistical tests of hypotheses, the identification of both random and systematic variation in estimates from hydrologic methods, and the difference between accuracy of model calibration and accuracy of prediction.     

Novel dimensionless index for physically based assessment of thermal refugia characterizes off-channel habitat on gravel bed river

In the Willamette River, OR, main channel temperatures can be too warm for cold water fishes, causing fish to concentrate in secondary channel features that provide thermal refugia. However, temperature regimes vary among and within features. Improved understanding of physical processes controlling thermal regimes is needed. This study developed a dimensionless index for assessment of thermal refugia on the upper Willamette River. The novel hyporheic insolation (HIN) index uses minimal field measurements to predict thermal refugia resulting from buffering. Continuous water temperature measurements at one side channel, eight alcoves, and six beaver ponds provided data to ground truth calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ predictions. Water temperature records were first used to characterize stratification at sites. Calculation of the Richardson number, an index of stability, showed two well-mixed sites and 13 stratified sites. At stratified sites, calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values characterized the ratio of cooling flux from hyporheic discharge to heat flux from incoming solar radiation. As ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ increased, measured temperatures at sites decreased. Despite overall scatter, a logarithmic fit to bin-averaged ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values showed R² = 0.91. Calculations suggest that secondary channel features characterized by stratification and cool hyporheic discharge can provide thermal refugia. Accordingly, the HIN index may serve as a practical tool grounded in physical processes governing temperature across a floodplain.     

A MULTI-BASIN PLANNING STRATEGY1

ABSTRACT. The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss a procedure for finding an optimal staging plan for implementing a multi-basin water resource system-a system that must meet, with tolerable shortages, pre-specified but highly variable demands for water that increase over time-a system such as the proposed Texas Water System. The paper stresses that, in the past, planners have paid little attention to quantifying explicitly the impact that uncertainty has on the decision process, and in that context, presents a means for explicitly evaluating the impact that uncertainty has on finding and evaluating the performance of the optimal and several alternate staging plans. The procedure presented evaluates the impact that uncertainty, in both the hydrologic and the economic variables, has on the decisions that need to be made. The decisions requiring resolution are (1) which of an over-specified set of facilities should be constructed, (2) how large each of the facilities should be at various points in time, and (3) how should the system be operated so as to minimize the capital plus operational costs over the planning period.     

ATMOSPHERIC CONTROLS OF WATER EXCHANGE IN GREAT LAKES BASIN1

ABSTRACT Existing meteorological controls of water exchange by precipitation and evaporation on the Great Lakes are almost entirely inadvertent and related to man's urban-industrial complexes and their effect upon precipitation processes. These inadvertent effects have led to 10 to 40% increases in precipitation in localized areas within the basin. Envisioned growth of urban-industrial complexes within the Great Lakes region should lead to more inadvertent weather modification in the Basin. The only existing planned weather modification efforts are those at Lake Erie which are attempting to eliminate by redistribution the concentration of lake-derived heavy snowfall along the south shore. It appears reasonable to assume that practical increases of lake precipitation on the order of 5-20% could be achieved on an operational basis over the Great Lakes in the next 10 years, but the time of accomplishment will depend on national priorities, international cooperation, and economic factors. These activities would certainly produce a sizeable increase in the water quantity of the Great Lakes and should result in an improvement in water quality. Operational methods of evaporation suppression applicable to the lakes are just not available. Meteorological controls to ameliorate certain undesirable lake-effect snowstorms are a near reality.     

URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT AND COASTAL WETLAND PROTECTION IN COLLIER COUNTY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Traditional development in South Florida has in many cases resulted in undesirable degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, due to overdrainage and overenrichment of surface waters. The study described in this paper was undertaken in order to establish guidelines under which urban development may take place in coastal areas, while minimizing unwanted environmental changes. The study area consists of approximately 70 square miles of relatively flat land in Collier County, Florida. The coastal wetlands of the region are a highly valued natural resource containing the Rookery Bay Wildlife Sanctuary. The upland properties are mainly pine woodlands and have great potential for development. A master plan was developed which will (1) provide adequate drainage for existing and projected development within the study area and (2) maintain the integrity of the estuarine zone. The major recommendations of the plan relate to land use, physical control of surface waters, including construction and maintenance of the water management system, and implementation of the plan.     

APPLICATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR LAND USE PLANNING IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An environmental simulation model of the Upper St. Johns River Basin, Florida, has been developed in order to predict hydrologic responses under proposed management plans. Land use projections for each of 19 hydrologic planning units are provided by a linear programming analysis of agricultural activities. Inputs to the model include rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), aquifer properties, topography, soil types, and vegetative patterns. A water balance is developed in the uplands based on infiltration, ET, surface runoff, and groundwater flow. Valley continuity is based on stage-volume relationship for inflows and outflows and a variable roughness coefficient dependent on vegetative patterns. Land use changes form the basis for predicting hydroperiod variation under alternative management schemes. Plans are ranked according to two criteria, deviation from a natural hydroperiod and flood or drought control provided. Results indicate that (1) a single reservoir without irrigation and (2) floodplain preservation plans are superior to (3) multiple reservoir with irrigation and (4) uncontrolled floodplain plans with regard to both criteria.     

PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: The individual hydrologic components are assumed to be normally distributed for each month and linear regression equations are estimated for predicting the value of the individual monthly hydrologic components. It is shown that some of the hydrologic components for downwind (in this case downstream) lakes are dependent upon hydrologic events for the upwind lakes. This is particularly so for precipitation in the downwind lake basins which appears to be dependent upon evaporation values for upwind lakes.     

AN EXPANDING ROLE FOR SUBARCTIC WATERSHED RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT: It is increasingly recognized that natural resources research should in many cases be broadened in scope and oriented toward more general “environmental” problems. Locales with a history of “watershed” research can be eminently suited for development of comprehensive, environmental research programs. This is recognized in many research efforts of the International Biological Program (IBP), where watershed research sites have been successfully utilized for intensive investigations of process and function of selected ecosystems or ecosystem components. In the North American Subarctic there is almost no history of “watershed” studies. Basic data on hydrometeorologic parameters such as precipitation amounts and areal and seasonal distribution of runoff are scarce; the data framework within which environmental understanding can be structured is exceedingly sketchy. Opportunity exists in the discontinuous-permafrost settings of central Alaska to begin rectifying this situation. A basic program of multi-agency, multi-discipline research and data acquisition for the most significant hydrologic subregions is being developed, based around several existing environmental research areas (chiefly the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, the Wickersham Dome Fire Study Area, and a series of outlying sites).     

ON THE MISMATCH BETWEEN DATA AND MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many difficulties exist in the matching of models with data. This paper identifies elements of this problem and discusses considerations involved in model evaluation. The well known multivariate linear regression model is used to illustrate the distinctions between accuracy and precision and between estimation and prediction (because the model is commonly misused.) No amount of additional data will improve the accuracy of a poor model. A high R², while indicative of a good matching between the observed data and model estimates, is a poor criterion for judging adequacy of the model to make good predictions of future events. Model evaluation also includes the problem of introducing secondary data and proxy variables into a model. Secondary data frequently enter, for example, the mass, energy and water budget equations because of difficulties in measuring the primary variables. Proxy variables arise because of a desire to collapse a vector of incomparable values, say, of water quality into a single number. Review of the above issues indicates that model evaluation is a multi-criterion problem, often imbedded in a larger framework where models are intended to meet multiple objectives. The mismatch of models and data has increasing legal and social consequences.