NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL METHODS IN URBAN HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT. In urban hydrologic studies, it is often necessary to determine the effect of changes in urban land use patterns on such runoff characteristics as flood peaks and flow volumes. Nonparametric statistical methods have certain properties that make them a valuable tool for detecting hydrologic change caused by a treatment, such as urbanization, that changes watershed over a period of time. As many hydrologists do not have a working familiarity with nonparametric methods, a number of them are used for illustrative purposes to analyze the effect of urbanization on 24 years of annual flood peaks for a Louisville, Kentucky, watershed. In the example, urbanization was found to increase the central tendency, but not the dispersion of the peaks. Peak flows modeled by holding watershed parameters constant were also found to be increasing because of an upward trend in precipitation. By following the numerical examples in the paper and looking up test statistics in referenced sources, the reader can easily apply these methods to other situations.     

GENERATION OF HOURLY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: A rainfall model was developed to divide daily rainfall into storms and distribute storm depths over storm duration for input into the Stanford Watershed Model.     

Trends in Water Chemistry in a Maple Forest on a Steep Slope

Year-to-year variation in SO₄ ^2-,NO₃ ^-, Ca²⁺, K⁺, and Mg²⁺concentrations in forest floor and mineral soil percolatefrom a forested, podzolic soil at the Turkey Lakes Watershedon the Precambrian Shield was assessed for monotonic trendsbetween 1986 and 1995. Our objective was to examine howrapidly ion concentrations in soil percolate equilibratedafter stabilization of SO₄ ^2- concentrations inprecipitation. Significant negative trends were detected inmonthly Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ concentrations in forestfloor and SO₄ ^2-, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ inmineral soil percolate during the 10-year-period. Thedecline in Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ was greater than annualdecreases in SO₄ ^2- and NO₃ ^- in forestfloor percolate and proportional to the reduction inSO₄ ^2- in mineral soil percolate. Response ofmineral soil percolate to a 15 mol_c L^-1SO₄ ^2- decrease in wet-only precipitation between1985 and 1986 was a gradual decline in SO₄ ^2-concentration through 1995. The five-year meanSO₄ ^2- concentration in bulk precipitation, forestfloor percolate, and mineral soil percolate decreased 8, 9and 18 mol_c L^-1 from 1986–90 to 1991–95.Microbial (mineralization of organic S) and sorption(release from and/or retention in the pool of insolubleSO₄ ^2-) processes in the soil were logicalexplanations for the observed changes in SO₄ ^2- inmineral soil percolate.     

STOCHASTIC FLOW DURATION CURVES FOR EVALUATION OF FLOW REGIMES IN RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: A stochastic estimation of low flow in the upper reaches of streams is needed for the planning, development, and management of water resources and/or water use systems. In this paper, the definition and development procedure for the stochastic flow duration curve is presented and applied to five catchments located in eastern Japan and to two catchments in western Thailand. The probability distribution of N‐year daily discharge data is extracted at various percentages of time for which specified discharges are equaled or exceeded in a water year. Such a distribution is usually represented with a straight line on log‐normal probability paper. However, some of the probability plots for the annual minimum daily discharge are best represented with a straight line on Weibull probability paper. The effectiveness of the stochastic flow duration curve defined for the evaluation of flow regime is illustrated through its application. The ten year probability for the discharge exceeded 97 percent of the time may be recognized as an index of low flow. The recession shape of the lower part of the flow duration curve is dependent on the strength of low flow persistence.     

STATIC WATER LEVEL MAPPING IN EAST CENTRAL MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a methodology for preparing a static water level map using a sample of water level measurements obtained from the well log records of private wells that are finished in glacial drift. The test was conducted in Tyrone Township, located in east central Michigan. A variety of selection criteria were examined and the resulting maps were compared with a ground truth map that was prepared from water level measurements obtained in the field. The map prepared from a random sample of wells at a density of two points per section best approximates the ground truth map. Using a sample of records from the Michigan Statewide Groundwater Database to create static water levels that are used in community ground water vulnerability analyses will provide a more accurate map than using the complete dataset or other selection criteria based on temporal groupings or seasonality.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

HYDROLOGIC STAGE PERIODICITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE AND AFTER SYSTEMATIC CHANNEL MODIFICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Periodic flood disturbance is a well known controlling factor of in channel and floodplain ecosystem function. However, channel manipulations during the last century have potentially altered hydrologic fluctuations, and thus ecosystem function. We examined temporal river stage hydrology, through autocorrelation analysis, at seven gauges along the Mississippi River to quantify flow periodicity and effects of systematic channel modifications on flow periodicity. Intraannual variation follows a strong one‐year cycle of six months higher flow and six months lower flow for the entire Mississippi River drainage, with precipitation as a driving force. Interannual hydrologic variation differs between the upper and lower river segments. A clear quasi‐biennial oscillation pattern was evident throughout the lower river section. The effect of channel alterations was a decreased magnitude of differences between lower and higher flows. The upper section, however, suggests a 12‐to 14‐year periodicity prior to alterations and a decreased duration of lower flow years following systematic modifications. Interannual variograms clearly depict very different temporal hydrology between the upper Mississippi River and the lower Mississippi River, suggesting the simple transfer of knowledge from one segment to the other oversimplifies the complexity of a large river system.     

MODELING ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However, direct measurement of forest evapotranspiration on a large basin or a regional scale is not possible. The objectives of this study were to develop an empirical model to estimate long‐term annual actual evapotranspiration (ART) for forested watersheds and to quantify spatial AET patterns across the southeast. A geographic information system (GIS) database including land cover, daily streamflow, and climate was developed using long term experimental and monitoring data from 39 forested watersheds across the region. Using the stepwise selection method implemented in a statistical modeling package, a long term annual AET model was constructed. The final multivariate linear model includes four independent variables—annual precipitation, watershed latitude, watershed elevation, and percentage of forest coverage. The model has an adjusted R² of 0.794 and is sufficient to predict long term annual ART for forested watersheds across the southeastern United States. The model developed by this study may be used to examine the spatial variability of water availability, estimate annual water loss from mesoscale watersheds, and project potential water yield change due to forest cover change.     

MISSOURI RIVER FLOOD OF 1993: ROLE OF WOODY CORRIDOR WIDTH IN LEVEE PROTECTION1

ABSTRACT. We investigated the relationships between levee damage and woody corridor along a 353‐mile segment of the Missouri River in Missouri during the flood of 1993. Results indicated that woody corridors between riverbanks and primary levees played a significant role in the reduction or prevention of flood related damage to levees. Forty‐one percent of levee failures in this segment occurred in areas with no woody corridor, while 74 percent and 83 percent of failures occurred where woody corridor widths were less than 300 feet and less than 500 feet, respectively. Median failure lengths with a woody corridor present were 50.3 percent shorter than median failure lengths with no woody corridor present. Levees without failures had significantly wider median woody corridor widths than levees that failed. Eligibility for the Corps of Engineers levee maintenance program was not a significant factor in the reduction of levee damage. Discontinuities in woody corridors played a role in 27.5 percent of the levee failures in the study segment. Smaller segments of the river valley were studied to determine if geomorphic differences influenced variations in the protective value of woody corridors.     

MASS LOAD ESTIMATION ERRORS UTILIZING GRAB SAMPLING STRATEGIES IN A KARST WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Developing a mass load estimation method appropriate for a given stream and constituent is difficult due to inconsistencies in hydrologic and constituent characteristics. The difficulty may be increased in flashy flow conditions such as karst. Many projects undertaken are constrained by budget and manpower and do not have the luxury of sophisticated sampling strategies. The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine two grab sampling strategies with varying sampling intervals and determine the error in mass load estimates, and (2) determine the error that can be expected when a grab sample is collected at a time of day when the diurnal variation is most divergent from the daily mean. Results show grab sampling with continuous flow to be a viable data collection method for estimating mass load in the study watershed. Comparing weekly, biweekly, and monthly grab sampling, monthly sampling produces the best results with this method. However, the time of day the sample is collected is important. Failure to account for diurnal variability when collecting a grab sample may produce unacceptable error in mass load estimates. The best time to collect a sample is when the diurnal cycle is nearest the daily mean.