基于形态学空间格局分析的城市绿地对热环境的影响研究

城市绿地是改善热环境的重要方式之一,当前研究主要集中于以景观指数衡量的绿地空间形态与热环境之间的关系,较少关注以城市公园为主的绿地内部空间结构对热环境的影响及其规划设计实施的可操作性。基于另一种视角——形态学空间格局分析的7个指标量化绿地空间格局,以武汉主城区的其中25个绿地为研究对象,通过2018年9月15日Landsat 8遥感数据反演地表温度,从绿地的点面、边界、廊道三方面分析绿地空间格局对绿地内部平均温度(T)、降温幅度(ΔT)的影响。结果表明:25个绿地可分为内外降温显著型、内部降温显著型、降温效果一般型、降温能力较弱型4类绿地,它们具有显著差异的空间格局主要集中在核心、孤岛与分支。绿地空间格局对自身温度的影响上,T与核心、孔隙指标显著负相关,与孤岛、分支指标显著正相关,可通过提高绿地核心斑块的集中性、核心斑块内部边界营造、减少破碎化小斑块数量、避免仅一端连接核心斑块的廊道等措施,提高绿地自身的降温效果。环线、桥接以非线性方式影响T,可将二者的比例分别控制在5%、17%以内。绿地空间格局对周围温度的影响上,ΔT与核心指标显著正相关,与孤岛、边缘指标显著负相关。ΔT随边缘、分支指标的增加先快速下降后逐渐趋于平稳,需尽可能避免绿地核心斑块被割裂与出现分支。环线仍以非线性方式影响ΔT,适宜控制其比例在6%。     

Conserving and managing the subnivium

In regions where snowfall historically has been a defining seasonal characteristic of the landscape, warming winters have reduced the depth, duration, and extent of snowpack. However, most management and conservation has focused on how aboveground wildlife will be affected by altered snow conditions, even though the majority of species that persist through the winter do so under the snowpack in a thermally stable refugium: the subnivium. Shortened winters, forest management practices, and winter recreation can alter subnivium conditions by increasing snow compaction and compromising thermal stability at the soil–snow interface. To help slow the loss of the subnivium in the face of rapidly changing winter conditions, we suggest managers adopt regional conservation plans for identifying threatened snow‐covered environments; measure and predict the effects land cover and habitat management has on local subnivium conditions; and control the timing and distribution of activities that disturb and compact snow cover (e.g., silvicultural practices, snow recreation, and road and trail maintenance). As a case study, we developed a spatially explicit model of subnivium presence in a working landscape of the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin. We identified landscapes where winter recreation and management practices could threaten potentially important areas for subnivium persistence. Similar modeling approaches could inform management decisions related to subnivium conservation. Current climate projections predict that snow seasons will change rapidly in many regions, and as result, we advocate for the immediate recognition, conservation, and management of the subnivium and its dependent species.     

Risk of Local Extinction of Odonata Freshwater Habitat Generalists and Specialists

Understanding the risk of a local extinction in a single population relative to the habitat requirements of a species is important in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, such as habitat requirements, range size of species, and habitat quality. We studied the local extinctions among 31 dragonfly and damselfly species from 1930 to 1975 and from 1995 to 2003 in Central Finland. We tested whether habitat specialists had a higher local extinction rate than generalist species. Approximately 30% of the local dragonfly and damselfly populations were extirpated during the 2 study periods. The size of the geographical range of the species was negatively related to extinction rate of the local populations. In contrast to our prediction, the specialist species had lower local extinction rates than the generalist species, probably because generalist species occurred in both low‐ and high‐quality habitat. Our results are consistent with source–sink theory. Riesgo de Extinción Local de Odonatos de Agua Dulce Generalistas y Especialistas de Hábitat     

Critical factors for the recovery of marine mammals

{en} Over the past decades, much research has focused on understanding the critical factors for marine extinctions with the aim of preventing further species losses in the oceans. Although conservation and management strategies are enabling several species and populations to recover, others remain at low abundance levels or continue to decline. To understand these discrepancies, we used a published database on abundance trends of 137 populations of marine mammals worldwide and compiled data on 28 potentially critical factors for recovery. We then applied random forests and additive mixed models to determine which intrinsic and extrinsic factors are critical for the recovery of marine mammals. A mix of life‐history characteristics, ecological traits, phylogenetic relatedness, population size, geographic range, human impacts, and management efforts explained why populations recovered or not. Consistently, species with lower age at maturity and intermediate habitat area were more likely to recover, which is consistent with life‐history and ecological theory. Body size, trophic level, social interactions, dominant habitat, ocean basin, and habitat disturbance also explained some differences in recovery patterns. Overall, a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors were important for species’ recovery, pointing to cumulative effects. Our results provide insight for improving conservation and management strategies to enhance recoveries in the future.     

Potential Economic Impacts of Environmental Flows Following a Possible Listing of Endangered Texas Freshwater Mussels

Texas water resources, already taxed by drought and population growth, could be further stressed by possible listings of endangered aquatic species. This study estimated potential economic impacts of environmental flows (EFs) for five freshwater unionid mussels in three Central Texas basins (Brazos, Colorado, and Guadalupe‐San Antonio Rivers) that encompass 36% of Texas (~246,000 km²). A water availability model projected reductions in water supply to power, commercial and industrial, municipal, and agriculture sectors in response to possible EFs for mussels. Single‐year economic impacts were calculated using publicly available data with and without water transfers. Benefits of EFs should also be assessed, should critical habitat be proposed. Potential economic losses were highest during droughts, but were nominal (<$1 M) in wetter years — even with high EFs. Reduced supplies to San Antonio area power plants caused worst‐case impacts of a single‐year shutdown up to $107 million (M) during drought with high EFs. For other sectors in the study area, water transfers reduced worst‐case losses from $80 to $11 M per year. Implementing innovative water management strategies such as water markets, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, aquifer storage and recovery could mitigate economic impacts if mussels — or other widely distributed aquatic species — were listed. However, approaches for defining EFs and strategies for mitigating economic impacts of EFs are needed.     

Relationships between simulated water stress and mortality and growth rates in underplanted Toona ciliata Roem. in subtropical Argentinean plantations

Toona ciliata Roem. (Australian red cedar) requires a nurse-tree overstory to prevent damage from drought and irradiation in some regions of north-eastern Argentina. T. ciliata was planted in the understory of Pinus taeda L. (625 stems/ha), Pinus elliottii Engelm. × Pinus caribaea Morelet (625 stems/ha), and Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. (833 stems/ha) nurse trees, which were thinned to 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% of the initial densities. We measured initial T. ciliata mortality and growth as well as Leaf Area Index (LAI) based on light transmission. T. ciliata soil water availability and its effect on early growth and mortality were examined by modelling drought stress using the two-dimensional forest hydrology model ForWaDy. Simulated patterns in T. ciliata water stress for the different overstory treatments were consistent with observed patterns of mortality. Early mortality was lowest with a G. robusta overstory, with corresponding lowest drought stress values and high modelled soil water contents in the top soil layer in intermediate and high overstory densities. Mortality was highest with a P. elliottii × P. caribaea overstory in treatments with the highest modelled drought stress values in the most open treatments. The model supported our field observations by indicating that water stress was an important limitation to T. ciliata survival and growth on our study sites. The linkage between T. ciliata establishment success, early growth and soil water availability as indicated by ForWaDy, leads us to conclude that the model is a suitable stand management tool for guiding establishment of T. ciliata plantations.     

北洛河中游白水段峡谷全新世特大洪水水文学研究

通过对北洛河中游峡谷河段的深入调查研究,在白水县张家船村段河谷台地的全新世黄土古土壤剖面中发现了古洪水滞流沉积夹层。采集了古洪水滞流沉积物典型样品,利用第四纪地质学和沉积学方法,通过磁化率、粒度、烧失量、碳酸钙含量等分析,发现其为中全新世后期(4 500～4 000a BP)特大洪水的典型悬移质沉积物。利用比降法模型计算得出,该组古洪水滞流沉积所指示的洪峰流量在13800～15600 m3/s之间;同时对该断面上游方向150m处的铁路桥1994年9月洪水洪痕进行了测量计算,其结果与水文站实测流量一致,证明古洪水水文学计算方法及相关参数的选取是合理的。该研究成果对北洛河的防洪减灾、交通和水利工程建设具有重要的参考价值。     

Trends in Western U.S. Snowpack and Related Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow1

Miller, W. Paul and Thomas C. Piechota, 2011. Trends in Western U.S. Snowpack and Related Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1197–1210. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00565.x Abstract: Water resource managers in the Western United States (U.S.) are currently faced with the challenge of adapting to unprecedented drought and uncertain impacts of climate change. Recent research has indicated increasing regional temperature and changes to precipitation and streamflow characteristics throughout the Western U.S. As such, there is increased uncertainty in hydroclimatological forecasts, which impact reservoir operations and water availability throughout the Western U.S., particularly in the Colorado River Basin. Previous research by the authors hypothesized a change in the character of precipitation (i.e., the frequency and amount of rainfall and snowfall events) throughout the Colorado River Basin. In the current study, 398 snowpack telemetry stations were investigated for trends in cumulative precipitation, snow water equivalent, and precipitation events. Observations of snow water equivalent characteristics were compared to observations in streamflow characteristics. Results indicate that the timing of the last day of the snow season corresponds well to the volume of runoff observed over the traditional peak flow season (April through July); conversely, the timing of the first day of the snow season does not correspond well to the volume of runoff observed over the peak flow season. This is significant to water resource managers and river forecasters, as snowpack characteristics may be indicative of a productive or unproductive runoff season.     

Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves1

Haucke, Jessica and Katherine A. Clancy, 2011. Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1338–1347. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00590.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves, which are curves that establish relationships among channel morphology, discharge, drainage area, are used extensively for stream restoration. These curves are developed upon the assumption that streamflows maintain stationarity over the entire record. We examined this assumption in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin where agricultural soil retention practices have changed, and precipitation has increased since the 1970s. We developed a bankfull regional curve for this area using field surveys of bankfull channel performed during 2008‐2009 and annual series of peak streamflows for 10 rivers with streamflow records ranging from the 1930s to 2009. We found bankfull flows to correlate to a 1.1 return period. To evaluate gage data statistics, we used the sign test to compare our channel morphology to historic 1.5 return period discharge (Q_1.5) for five time periods: 1959‐1972, 1973‐1992, 1993‐2008, 1999‐2008, and the 1959‐2008 period of record. Analysis of the historic gage data indicated that there has been a more than 30% decline in Q_1.5 since 1959. Our research suggests that land conservation practices may have a larger impact on gaging station stationarity than annual precipitation changes do. Additionally, historic peak flow data from gages, which have records that span land conservation changes, may need to be truncated to represent current flow regimes.     

贮存老化对某弹药射程的影响研究

目的 研究长期贮存老化对某弹药射程的影响,确定其有效增程射角范围。方法 对130 mm某弹药在不同贮存老化时间下的射程进行数值仿真分析,揭示其射程和有效增程射角范围随贮存时间的变化规律。结合射程与贮存老化时间和射角之间的函数关系,提出以剩余推力比为表征参数的射程变化模型。结果 在相同贮存老化时间下,随着射角的增大,该弹药的射程呈现出先增大、后减小的趋势。相同射角下,射程随贮存老化时间呈线性下降趋势,有效增程射角范围逐渐减小。使用三次多项式拟合有效增程比与射角之间的函数关系,拟合方程的相关系数超过了0.997 0。该弹药射程变化模型的拟合结果与仿真计算结果的相关系数大于0.998 5,表明其可以准确描述该弹药的射程变化规律。结论 贮存老化会显著影响某弹药的射程和有效增程射角范围,在实际贮存和使用过程中,不能忽略其贮存老化因素。